> The fact that it looks entirely irrational for Russia to do this is exactly why they might have done it.
Any analysis predicated on "the enemy is perfectly irrational and will not act according their interests" is not analysis. It's untethered from reality, which is convenient, because you can support any conclusion you desire.
Robert McNamara's #1 life lesson was "empathize with your enemy" (he dealt with the Cuban Missile Crisis). Sun Tzu said "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles." This timeless wisdom has basis in reality.
Unfortunately, realism in Washington has been replaced with insane, petulant ideologues like Victoria "Fuck the EU" Nuland" and Michael "Of course we lied" McFaul.
People like Michael McFaul is exactly why the invasion happened in the first place because the Obama admin was weak on Russia after the 2014 invasion. They are the opposite of ideologues.
It is actually bipartisan idiocy. Goes beyond Obama/Biden perceived weakness and weird foreign policies. Don’t forget Bush ambassador to Russia - current CIA director who personally managed to convince Putin that entire former USSR is solely RF sphere of interest/influence
Putin was not content with having his fiefdom and threatened Western security interests by blowing up the post WW2 global order. He stepped out of line and now Russia suffers for it. That's the realism. China knows it and that's why they aren't backing him.
This isn't about ideology, democracy or human rights. This is warlord invoking the wrath of imperial gunboats.
Any analysis predicated on "the enemy is perfectly irrational and will not act according their interests" is not analysis. It's untethered from reality, which is convenient, because you can support any conclusion you desire.
Robert McNamara's #1 life lesson was "empathize with your enemy" (he dealt with the Cuban Missile Crisis). Sun Tzu said "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles." This timeless wisdom has basis in reality.
Unfortunately, realism in Washington has been replaced with insane, petulant ideologues like Victoria "Fuck the EU" Nuland" and Michael "Of course we lied" McFaul.