So many seem to have just swallowed anything and everything the US propaganda has put out this year and know absolutely nothing about the last 10 years of Ukrainian history.
There are Russians in Ukraine and Russia is fighting for them. How is that irrational? You can argue they're wrong to do it, or that they shouldn't. But irrational? Nonsense.
Your links are highly disingenuous. Russia supported armed separatists and started a low-grade war against Ukraine in 2014. Their aims have always been clear: control Crimea and seize control of a land bridge to it. They never hid these intentions, and you'd have to purposefully ignore this realpolitik in order to lay the blame at Ukraine's feet.
Are Ukrainians all saints, souls pure as the driven snow? Clearly not. Certainly not significantly better (or worse) than Russians. Similar people, similar politics, similar ethics. Their country is just as corrupt, if not more so. Their politics is just as dirty. They have their right-wing white nationalists the same as Russia. They killed people in the Donbass for a decade, yes.
But who invaded in 2014? Russia.
Who invaded in 2022? Russia.
Your argument is a lot like saying that the police in Iran are killing women "for a reason".
Well, if the gas can't be delivered, of what use is the lack of gas sanctions to Russia? In this case it even affected NS2, which Russia was actually fighting to get up and running.
1) They are running out of time on this war of aggression, and this will force gas price action NOW, not in December. They can sell gas through other pipelines to the EU if it accepts it.
2) Norway just TODAY inaugurated a new pipeline to the EU. Norway has warned about unaccounted-for drone activity around it's oil and gas fields. Russia is likely sending a message: "Nice pipeline you have there - it's be a shame if something happened to it".
3) Russia has favorable actors planted in just about every western democracy, and some of them are already tweeting accusations against the US. As long as the Russians can keep suspicion off of them with reasoning like "what motive do they have?" and "somebody else must have done it", it works very much to their advantage in undermining opposition to their war of aggression.
In contrast, this is the last thing the administrations in the US or Germany need. They need stability and moderation of gas prices. Their methods are not to create chaos and try to take advantage. That is Russia's standard modus operandi.
So, yes, Russia has the biggest motives of anyone. They also have the means with extensive submarine capabilities, and ports on the Baltic Sea.
> We actually did do this 40 years ago. Reagan covertly blew up a Soviet gas pipeline supplying Europe in 1982, which was publicized in 2004 when the former Secretary of the Air Force boasted about it.
- "At the time, the United States was attempting to block Western Europe from importing Soviet natural gas. There were also signs that the Soviets were trying to steal a wide variety of Western technology. Then, a KGB insider revealed the specific shopping list and the CIA slipped the flawed software to the Soviets in a way they would not detect it."
- "In order to disrupt the Soviet gas supply, its hard currency earnings from the West, and the internal Russian economy, the pipeline software that was to run the pumps, turbines, and valves was programmed to go haywire, after a decent interval, to reset pump speeds and valve settings to produce pressures far beyond those acceptable to pipeline joints and welds," Reed writes."
Possibly the first software supply-chain attack in history? Before the term even existed.
Yup, at the time it was one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in history.
Also note that this was not a kinetic/physical attack, and this sabotage almost surely was kinetic/physical.
The key factors in thinking about is so are are that 1) it's much more important for the US to maintain stable/low prices, and 2) Norway is already investigating drone activity over it's oil/gas fields, and this happens the same day as Norway announces their new pipeline opening.
The Wikipedia article quotes V. D. Zakhmatov to say this kind of attack was never possible in the first place because the control systems were either manual or analog, not digital.
>>Who says the US is sensitive to gas prices in Europe?
The US was already somewhat sensitive to global NatGas prices even before they recently permitted exports. Since we started permitting exports of NatGas, and are now actively sending all we physically can to support EU, it definitely affects both heating and electrical costs in the US, and the economy and political climate is very sensitive to those inputs.
Yes, the US is working to show strong leadership for sanctions, since the current administration fully understands the global threats to democracy posed by Russia, China, and authoritarian movements inside democracies (e.g., Hungary).
The Great Experiment — the idea that exchange and trade would bring democracy to authoritarian states — has failed so far and only empowered authoritarian states (in the medium term, at least). Authoritarian states simply found ways to route around it, and see democracy as the key threat to their existence. for example, the very existence of a free and democratic Ukraine threatens Putin's administration because the Russian people can see that one of the former USSR states being free is doing much better - raises dissatsfaction.
On the gas situation, the US cannot begin to supply enough to Europe as there are not enough ships and terminals in the world. Dependence on US gas has only slightly increased, and EU NatGas imports aren't a significant contributor to US GDP, but ARE a significant contributor to inflation. This is the last thing the US administration needs right now, and it would also be seen as a massive escalation, which the US is obviously avoiding.
Increased uncertainty today benefits only one party in the world, and that is the Russian leader.
QUOTE: "the very existence of a free and democratic Ukraine threatens Putin's administration because the Russian people can see that one of the former USSR states being free is doing much better - raises dissatsfaction"
This is a myth. Go here[0] and choose any year you want in the URL. Russia was doing much much better than Ukraine at pretty much any point in the last 15 years in terms of GDP per capita.
They why do Russian troops paint on the walls of Ukranian houses they trash "Who allowed you to live so well?" and steal anything they can, from washing machines to toilets. ?
It's going to be an extra cold hard winter for Europe. This is an attempt to create enough doubt to start driving a wedge between the west and ukraine.
