The conspiracy theory is that either the United States or some member of NATO sabotaged the pipeline so that Germany will not have the option of easing up on sanctions in order to purchase Russian Gas this winter.
It’s not a conspiracy theory. Some group conspired to sabotage the pipelines. It’s a conspiracy fact. The only theoretical aspect is who did it and that’s more of a hypothesis at this point. It’s a conspiracy hypothesis.
but it's a theory as of now and hence a "conspiracy theory". I'd like to mention that for me "conspiracy theory" is not a term I frown upon. It's been labelled as something equivalent to "dangerous tin foil hat bullshit" by some politicians and news outlets who'd like us to believe that history unfolds linearly and obviously.
Could we please have at least a shred of evidence of sabotage before we move on to the phase where we conclude there was sabotage? Sorry to be a stickler about major geopolitical crises.
Not every theory about conspiracy is a conspiracy theory.
Fixed version:
> The theory is that either the United States or some member of NATO conspired and sabotaged the pipeline so that Germany will not have the option of easing up on sanctions in order to purchase Russian Gas this winter.
> Even the German government might have done it in a "burn the boats" strategy.
I would prefer to assume governments are somewhat rational actors, who at least try to act in the interest of the own country.
In this case, the biggest loser from destroying NS1 and NS2 is Germany, second-biggest Russia and the rest of the Europe, sorted descending by the dependency on Russian gas.
As for the winners, we have the USA and Ukraine as biggest immediate winners, and indirectly and in the long-term India, China, Arab countries, ...
Ok, what if NATO collectively (or at least the affected members) decided to destroy the pipeline in a show of resolution?
Let's say secret negotiations are ongoing (it would be surprising if they weren't) with Russia regarding a winter ceasefire. Russia annexes the occupied regions to force the hand and be in a better position, then offers gas in exchange of no NATO military help during the ceasefire.
NATO rejects the offer and blows the pipeline to show it is off the table.
This is a valid conspiracy.... when it gets cold, people will protest, and demand that their government sits down with putin and make a deal... with the pipes blown, the government can say that they can't do anything, and that it's not their fault.
Perhaps I should have said 'conjecture' instead. I felt like using the term conspiracy because the explanation seems plausible while simultaneously devious and covert.
Isn't that exactly from their playbook? I mean the neofascist book by Dugin about pseudo-geopolitics that they made required reading at the military universities. "Foundation of Geopolitics" is the name.
Have you read it? I have. I doubt many countries are studying how to create a Eurasian super-state to take on the western European and American alliance. What you're thinking is a general-purpose Clausewitz or Sun Tzu is actually a very specific book about building a very specific world view.
No, it's not. My state never tried to do anything even remotely like what's described as standard practice in the book (and what's provably being done by them here).
This state doesn't even have the agencies that would do it, much less a budget for them. The agencies we have - they have reporting requirements, and these are checked to be accurate by elected auditors.
Where do you live Andorra or Lichtenstein or some place like that which has like 10 people? I can't imagine any country that has some decent amount of people not having agencies who would be capable of doing stuff like this.
I think you have no idea what you're talking about. Read the book. Very few states would be able to do the things described there, and even less of them (1-3, maybe) could hide it.
I think you are grossly underestimating the ability of agencies. If you think only 1-3 countries could actually pull off something like this, then you are wrong.
I said only 1-3 could keep it secret. More could pull it off, but not in secrecy. Anyways, the main point is that we know for a fact thanks to our constitutional audit office that nothing even remotely like this is being done by our three/four-letter agencies. :-)
If you're going to claim that every single random person elected into this office (so several hundreds of people) was coerced into lying to keep it private, not a single leak has ever happened even though this state is not exactly known for its (cyber)security, that they somehow magically generated the funds for it even though we're really not rich at all and every US$ million missing is immediately visible, and that they managed to make everything else check out perfectly as if nothing was happening - then sorry but I think you're being way more than overly paranoid. I don't want to be rude but you should visit a psychologist if you're seriously considering this claim.
The thing is, there's no reason anybody here would do it. We don't have anything like the national pride of other nations like the US or even the Russians. We don't care, nationalism and patriotism is considered laughing matter here. The agents would burst out laughing if you suggested a plan like this - even if it was plausible, you'd be seen as insane. The only thing we have is strong anti-communism, so anything that resembles these times is pretty much not possible here - and the newspapers are fishing to expose you for it.
Simply put, no, not every state does stuff like this. Don't normalize it.
>I said only 1-3 could keep it secret. More could pull it off, but not in secrecy.
Seems unlikely. USA, UK, Russia, and China could all keep it secret. I'm sure other Western countries likely could as well like Germany.
>Anyways, the main point is that we know for a fact thanks to our constitutional audit office that nothing even remotely like this is being done by our three/four-letter agencies. :-)
You are so certain it couldn't happen in your country and yet you haven't stated the name despite me asking you twice. Perhaps you are afraid you claims won't stand up to scrutiny?
Do you really think that there is zero corruption in your country? That no agency claims to pay more for an item then they do to skim money?
>If you're going to claim that every single random person elected into this office (so several hundreds of people) was coerced into lying to keep it private, not a single leak has ever happened even though this state is not exactly known for its (cyber)security,
I don't know how your agencies work and since you refuse to give the name then I have no reason to trust your claims. You think 100s of people are all auditing every single agency and purchase all while having 100% perfect accuracy?
Unless you are talking about a microstate that doesn't seem likely.
>that they somehow magically generated the funds for it even though we're really not rich at all and every US$ million missing is immediately visible, and that they managed to make everything else check out perfectly as if nothing was happening
No one is talking about millions of dollars. You need a couple people, scuba gear and explosives. You might be able to find people with scuba gear who could volunteer for such an assignment. Explosives don't have to cost millions. Crap, people in your government could have paid for it out of pocket.
>then sorry but I think you're being way more than overly paranoid. I don't want to be rude but you should visit a psychologist if you're seriously considering this claim.
Spending potentially less than a thousand dollars isn't really some sort of conspiracy theory.
>The thing is, there's no reason anybody here would do it.
Do you know every single person in your country well enough to know their politics? If you do then you live in a microstate which was already something I was asking you about.
>We don't have anything like the national pride of other nations like the US or even the Russians. We don't care, nationalism and patriotism is considered laughing matter here.
Seeing how much you are posting to defend your country, this sure seems like a lie.
>The agents would burst out laughing if you suggested a plan like this - even if it was plausible, you'd be seen as insane.
You know every single agent right?
>The only thing we have is strong anti-communism, so anything that resembles these times is pretty much not possible here - and the newspapers are fishing to expose you for it.
Doesn't seem likely, but since you haven't stated the name of your country I can't show any evidence to the contrary.
>Simply put, no, not every state does stuff like this. Don't normalize it.
Prove it by giving me the name of your country so I can check.
