Desktop bandwidth is improving over time, but as I understand HTTP Archive is still using a 5 Mbps cable connection.
From their FAQ/changelog [1]:
> 19 Mar 2013: The default connection speed was increased from DSL (1.5 mbps) to Cable (5.0 mbps). This only affects IE (not iPhone).
There was another popular article on HN a while ago [2], claiming mobile websites had gotten slower since 2011. But actually HTTP Archive just started using a slower mobile connection in 2013. I wrote more about that issue with the HTTP Archive data at the time [3].
Regarding "4 seconds wasted" per visit: HTTP Archive also publishes real-user performance data from Google, and only 10% of desktop websites take 4 seconds or more to load. (And I think that's not the average experience but the 75th percentile.) https://httparchive.org/reports/chrome-ux-report#cruxSlowLcp
The Google data uses Largest Contentful Paint instead of Speed Index, but the two metrics ultimately try to measure the same thing. Both have pros and cons. Speed Index goes up if there are ongoing animations (e.g sliders). LCP only looks at the single largest content element.
From their FAQ/changelog [1]:
> 19 Mar 2013: The default connection speed was increased from DSL (1.5 mbps) to Cable (5.0 mbps). This only affects IE (not iPhone).
There was another popular article on HN a while ago [2], claiming mobile websites had gotten slower since 2011. But actually HTTP Archive just started using a slower mobile connection in 2013. I wrote more about that issue with the HTTP Archive data at the time [3].
[1] https://httparchive.org/faq [2] https://www.nngroup.com/articles/the-need-for-speed/ [3] https://www.debugbear.com/blog/is-the-web-getting-slower