On: Climate change: Six tipping points ‘likely’ to be crossed

[sacrosancty]

> very likely collapse of civilisation

Have you got a reference for that claim? I hear it a lot and assume it's just made-up extremism, isn't it?

[mellavora → sacrosancty]

No, not made up extremism. It is a risk which becomes more likely.

Just for kicks, what happens if the existing, current drought in the US (worst in 1200 years) continues and/or worsens over the next two years, cutting agricultural production and raising the cost of food (disclaimer: long CORN). https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

And if a megaflood wipes out California. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abq0995

And a series of hurricanes causes extreme damage to the Eastern seaboard also shutting down Gulf refineries thus cutting oil/gas to the US https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/short-history-us-oil...

None of those on its own is a civ killer. The problem is when each of these goes from exceedingly rare to rather common.

And it isn't just the US, it is global.

[sacrosancty → mellavora]

So it's made up extremism?

[Beldin → sacrosancty]

Talk to Pakistan about that.

[sacrosancty → Beldin]

Pakistan in its current state could be what civilizational collapse in the west would look like. You can't fall off the floor.

[johnnymorgan → Beldin]

That's a cycle and has happened before, long before these claims.

Do better please

[mellavora → johnnymorgan]

Ok, since we are explicitly discussing floods, and you explicity say "cycle that has happened before",

Define flooding as California megaflood puts LA/Orange county underwater.

TL/DR, risk is now 2x historic and is expected to rise to 4-7x historic.

Historical: floods equal to or greater in magnitude to those in 1862 occur five to seven times per millennium [i.e., a 1.0 to 0.5% annual likelihood or 100- to 200-year recurrence interval (RI)]

... We find that climate change to date (as of 2022) has already increased the annual likelihood of an ARkHist event by ~105% relative to 1920 in the CESM1-LENS ensemble and of an even higher magnitude (200-year RI) event by ~234%. This finding is consistent with prior work reporting progressively larger increases in projected extreme precipitation events for increasing event magnitudes [e.g., (42)]. We further find that by ~2060, on a high emissions trajectory, the annual likelihood of an ARkHist level event increases by ~374% and by ~683% for a formerly 200-year RI event.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abq0995

[peterashford → sacrosancty]

Look at the effects of flooding in Pakistan. Imagine what that does to civilisation. What happens if that becomes widespread?

[sp332 → sacrosancty]

Sea level rise will affect port cities most directly. Those are important for trade.

[sacrosancty → sp332]

Any science behind your implied claim that port cities will stop operating because of sea level rise, rather than adapting or migrating?

It's incredible how widespread misinformation about climate change is. All these replies from people who support the OP's claim but have no idea why and are just taking random stabs at imagined reasons.