> Knowing what caused this should be important, so it doesn't happen again
I really don't see that. If it is really true that both options are indistinguishably plausible, then what do you in response to this one event is absolutely meaningless. The next event could as likely come from "the other source", or from a new entirely one you don't even know about.
Your only reasonable option _in any case_ is to just strengthen your protection from both potential sources.
Suppose you are investigating a plane crash, and the evidence points to a possible uncontained engine failure, which apparently was caused by previously-undetected metal fatigue. The evidence, however, also almost entirely fits a bird strike. It doesn't really matter if you eventually find it was a bird strike, or not. Your engineers really think the metal fatigue could have brought down the plane? You are going to increase metal fatigue inspections, birds or not. And viceversa.
> both options are indistinguishably plausible, then what do you in response to this one event is absolutely meaningless.
How is it “absolutely meaningless” if you can narrow the chance of happening of the one you have control over? Is a global pandemic is a rare occurrence already don’t you make it more rare if you mitigate the risk of one of the possible sources?
What is absolutely meaningless is _which_ was the cause of this one particular event, since both clauses are almost equally plausible. I am obviously not claiming that the best course of action is not to mitigate anything; I am claiming that the best course of action is the same irregardless of the particular cause of this one event.
No doubt, but if the catalyst for the folks involved to take that best course of action is a global public revelation that governments and scientists had a hand in this either by irresponsible experimentation or lax safety over dangerous experimentation then it’s not meaningless.
I really don't see that. If it is really true that both options are indistinguishably plausible, then what do you in response to this one event is absolutely meaningless. The next event could as likely come from "the other source", or from a new entirely one you don't even know about.
Your only reasonable option _in any case_ is to just strengthen your protection from both potential sources.
Suppose you are investigating a plane crash, and the evidence points to a possible uncontained engine failure, which apparently was caused by previously-undetected metal fatigue. The evidence, however, also almost entirely fits a bird strike. It doesn't really matter if you eventually find it was a bird strike, or not. Your engineers really think the metal fatigue could have brought down the plane? You are going to increase metal fatigue inspections, birds or not. And viceversa.