Your analogy is harmful to the topic under discussion: its key assumptions (such as comparing the governments of US and China to my family in terms of power and influence) render it inapplicable.
> It appears to be reasonable to assign the "your mother is a [insert derogatory term]" hypothesis a higher prior, in Bayesian terms, just based on the many familiy members whose image/status would it directly or indirectly damage if found true (your dad, your uncle, your sister, your grandparents), and which therefore would be compelled to paint it as unlikely.
If something major happened that made it a difficult binary choice between either that and <insert an alternative>, then certainly it would be reasonable to assign appropriate priors if you were forming your opinion exclusively by interviewing my relatives. (On the other hand, if my family members or relatives were in positions of significant power/esteem/status that they stood to lose if what you say were true, had significant social influence and a degree of control over mass media, then reweighing priors in such fashion would be advisable regardless of your source.)
I was not offended. I concede to arguments raised by other repliers regarding my misuse (or at least very unorthodox use) of the term “prior”, but still find an objection based on your analogy ill-founded. Your analogy more or less supports my point (which I, to be fair, expressed badly).
> It appears to be reasonable to assign the "your mother is a [insert derogatory term]" hypothesis a higher prior, in Bayesian terms, just based on the many familiy members whose image/status would it directly or indirectly damage if found true (your dad, your uncle, your sister, your grandparents), and which therefore would be compelled to paint it as unlikely.
If something major happened that made it a difficult binary choice between either that and <insert an alternative>, then certainly it would be reasonable to assign appropriate priors if you were forming your opinion exclusively by interviewing my relatives. (On the other hand, if my family members or relatives were in positions of significant power/esteem/status that they stood to lose if what you say were true, had significant social influence and a degree of control over mass media, then reweighing priors in such fashion would be advisable regardless of your source.)