> There are problems in the housing market, but they are not to be found by worrying about people acting speculatively. People are responding to the real problem, whatever it is
We should do both. Build more housing and crack down on speculators.
Shooting the messenger has a bad record for making things better. Speculators don't drive markets, they just signal how the situation will develop as early as it is possible for predictions to be made.
Cracking down on speculators won't help people get roofs over their heads. Nor will calling them unethical. Speculators are the signal for whether there is going to be a housing problem in a few years time.
We should want a system that allows speculators and encourages them if there is going to be a housing problem so there is plenty of warning. Targeting speculators in particular is the old once-a-metric-becomes-the-target-it-becomes-a-bad-metric problem in a new guise.
This works for most goods that people have to constantly buy new, but does not work in the housing market. The people that decide the zoning are the residents of the city. The residents of the city don't need to buy, so they don't care about the speculation price effect. In actuality, through price increases of the speculation, they are better off! So they vote for SFH zoning[0]. The warning is ignored.
If you introduce a land value tax equal to the value of the unimproved land, this will kill speculation, but also make it instantly impactful to the citizens that there is not enough supply. This will mean that the people able to change the zoning of the city will instantly see a reason to change the zoning, as better zoning means more supply means lower taxes.
In my opinion you're overlooking that a speculator could "engineer" a situation faster than say a local council is able to act / realize what is happening.
For example, a speculator moves into a nice small village, sees potential and brings in a lot of foreign capital in a short amount of time. Buying up houses and outbidding potential new citizens. The price of land is also driven up from this, even if it's only a short term thing.
The damage has been done there and it had little to do with the number of houses. It was just a hostile takeover of a community.
If the speculators are wrong the price goes down and people tend not to complain about them. People only start bringing up speculators when they are correct.
They were right. The speculators from 2010-2020 were right that cryptocurrencies are going to be a reality from now on. Like it or not, it is clear that there is a market here that is measured in billions of dollars and it is going to stay with us.
no, you should crack down on government making housing rare, which is who is at fault in pretty much all of North America. Zoning is mismatched to the task of housing the people who want to live in many areas and local governments need to drastically increase the higher density zoned areas and that is pretty much the extent of the problem and the solution.
> We should do both. Build more housing and crack down on speculators.
No, just building more housing will make housing less useful to speculative investment, and so speculators won't invest. Just reverse the messing with normal supply and demand. Don't apply ever more patches on top of patches to fix a situation that wouldn't exist without the messing in the first place.
Sadly, it is very hard for politicians to a) want to decentralise control, because it's much easier to declare a new controlling initiative than to say "actually, we're just getting in your way" and b) get to decentalise control, because it's much harder to argue strong economic principles than appeal to special interest groups who might vote for someone else.
> We should do both. Build more housing and crack down on speculators.
By this reasoning nobody could own multi-family properties because that would be considered speculation.
Because the only difference is this involves single family homes which are going to be rented out, an act that I’ve never heard called speculation. Of all the predatory tactics Silicon Valley gets up to (hello Uber) this isn’t one of them IMHO.
I’m not sure where people think the houses that get rented out come from but I can guarantee that it isn’t people who are running a charity to provide housing to needy families. They invest capital in real estate with the sole intention of seeking a return on said investment.
We should do both. Build more housing and crack down on speculators.