All of these are illusions. The currency is propped up by the government because it's not freely exchanged anymore. Europe is making a massive turn away from Russian energy despite the medium-term pain. The Russian military has achieved very little in five months of warfare. And China genuinely doesn't care about Russia. If the Russian Federation were to balkanize into smaller states, the Chinese leaders certainly wouldn't mind.
Europe is working hard on getting their energy from other sources. And once they've done that, they're not going back to Russian gas. In the long term, this is absolutely a loss for Russia.
Germany will not build any new LNG terminals when in a few short years they can just resume buying from the cheapest seller, before the first new terminal has even finished being constructed.
Simultaneously Russia is not stupid enough to completely cut off the gas and trigger a total crisis. They are pulling on the chains but they understand the risk to the relationship just as well as you do. Don't forget all the gas supply shortages to date have been justified in terms of required maintenances and problems due to western sanctions. That's paving a route for resumption of normal relations between both parties at a later date with no loss of face for either party.
Russia controls the most valuable portion of Ukraine right now. Going after Kiev was a win/win for Russia because it allowed them to capture the southern coast and maybe even gave them the country (it didn't).
Unless Ukraine retakes the southern coast, Russia will have achieved their main objective.
> If the Russian Federation were to balkanize into smaller states, the Chinese leaders certainly wouldn't mind.
There's some territory there that the USSR took from China back when China was weak. Once those roles are reversed, who's to say China won't start looking in that direction?
They have shown themselves to be blackmailers with energy - no one will trust them again. The war will make Europe less dependent on Russian energy.
Steady gains - I wouldn't say so as they had to retreat from the whole northern Ukraine. In my opinion, Russia lost the war after first week or two. They bet everything on quick collapse of Ukrainian army and now that it did not happen, they are in a war they want to fight with peacetime army against an 40 million country that is fully mobilizing. It's a losing fight for Russia.
How much aid did China send to Russia? Answer is very little to none.
Reason why I feel Russia will collapse is that usually after major defeats, empires fall. We have various factions already jockeying for position and I bet that people like Kadyrov wouldn't mind carving their own part of Russia (independent Chechnya). After Russia depletes their army and manpower in a futile war against Ukraine we can see various other national movements come up. Especially if/when Putin dies.
> Their currency is stronger than before the war (despite internal fragility)
Stronger than before the war, but weaker than some years ago. Russia is declining for a long time now, this war is just a last struggle.
> They have the entire continent of Europe by the balls on oil/gas
No, they have not. They lost them. Everyone is switching to new suppliers, while speeding up their movement to alternatives. And this did not happen because of the war. Moving to greener technology happens for some time now, 2019 it got a new boost, and the war only gave it another boost. With more than half of their export being a dated resource, Russia had an obvious problem pending on them.
> They've made an absolute killing in the energy sector this year due to the fear and scarcity they have created.
They made a short term win by burning their long term gains. They paid very hard with all the restrictions they received, and all the trust they lost.
> They're making steady gains in their war in Ukraine
You mean, steady gains backward? They are losing the war. They lost most of the territory they gained in the early days, and have now barely more than they had before the war.
> They have the ear and economic heart of China
Having an ear without the backing is useless. They can't push nearly as much to China than they sold to Europe. And china is switching to greener energy too. Russia's other products have little value for china. Not enough to compensate for the loss. Though, maybe enough to hold the country alive.
The thing is, overall economical, Russia is an old country with a dying market. A dinosaur who failed to adept to the future. And they burned every ground with those who could help them transform into a better form. But truly, a collapse does not depend on economy alone. Russia seems to have a population accustomed to suffering, and indoctrinated with Putin's nonsense. So quite likely that the country will remain as it is for the moment. But until some significant change will happen, the country will remain in a very stressed state, with a chance for collapse always being around.
I fear this is a definite possibility, and it's terrifying. Because the main thing that Russia has, their only real claim to being a major power, and the only reason why they've been able to get away with their invasion, is their nukes. And if the country really collapses, who knows what will happen to those nukes?
I don't mean to upset anyone, and I think the chance of collapse is small, but it's not zero.
The fear is not that they will use nukes during the collapse, but that after the collapse, there will be multiple smaller nations, each with their own supply of nukes and unpredictable governments.
This was also a concern during the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the US government worked closely with the USSR government to make sure that all nuclear weapons remain within Russia. In particular, Ukraine was forced/convinced to give up its nuclear arsenal.
They didn't, but those nukes did end up in various member states. The last couple months people have talked a lot about the 1993 deal between the US, Russia and Ukraine that got Ukraine to give up its nukes in exchange of (now apparently worthless) guarantees of territorial integrity.
If Russia collapses, there's going to be mostly tribal territories in Siberia that have nukes.
IMO Russia is just a pawn in this game with China. US is in two win-win scenarios with both Russia and China. Currently Russia has its hands tied and cannot interfere or support China if the Taiwan thing gets bigger. Also, irrespective of Russia winning or loosing, Europe will increase usage of American oil and gas.
If China wins in a Taiwan takeover, the semiconductor industry will double up in America and if loses, then America will have military dominance in the region.
Unless something really crazy happens, US will come out on top again and crush both Russia and China and also increase exports to Europe.
Don't bet on it. Russia has been totally screwed up for 800 years and will be totally screwed up for another 800 years, but thru it all, ya still got yerself 1600 years of Russia.
