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> We're not in a recession. Yet.

Based on what?

Perhaps we can discard the classic "two quarters of negative GDP growth". But if we do, then from whose perspective does a 3% drop in real wages in six months [1] (and a 4.4% YoY drop in real weekly earnings [2]) not count as a recession?

1: https://www.statista.com/statistics/216259/monthly-real-aver...

2: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.htm




You don't have recessions without job losses and unemployment claims:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193280/seasonally-adjust...


First, is there any precedent for that restriction?

And second, why not? If everyone still has a job but their wages have decreased, that's still an economic contraction, at least from the worker's perspective.




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