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Well, SpaceX is quite notable for how swiftly it alters its designs and abandons semi-finished work if a better idea comes along. Few technical corporations avoid the sunk cost fallacy as efficiently as them. They seem to be absolutely willing to throw away an expensive prototype and innovate again if it makes technical sense.

Musk has a lot of negatives and comes off as arrogant sometimes, but I never heard a story about him forcing the SpaceX engineers to keep some design flaw there because it was his precious idea and thus can't be wrong.

IDK about Tesla, I am not that interested in cars.




I like your sunk cost fallacy framing.

Munro Assoc's teardowns and analysis suggest that Tesla both innovates and increments at an astonishing clip. Tesla makes plenty of mistakes, for sure. Often existential. Like attempting fully automated manufacturing. But somehow they manage to pivot.

One notable exception, that I'm aware of, is Telsa's full self driving car effort, especially without LIDAR. That one baffles me. So stubborn. While it might have been about cost at some point, expense and risk hasn't deterred Tesla's other audacious moon shots. Like investing in the gigapress to make huge castings. Total game changer.

Tesla's AI team was recently sacked. I'd love to know the inside baseball. Does it signal a change in strategy? Were they pushing back too hard, like maybe insisting on adopting LIDAR? Maybe Musk just wanted a fresh team for fresh start?

I think the reason would be very revealing.

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Like you, I also have little interest in cars. But I'm junkie for all the process, improvement, Peter Drucker, Edward Deming type stuff. And right now that means trying to figure out what TMSC, Apple, Haier, Tesla, and SpaceX are doing.

I don't care if Musk is a genius, poseur, whatever. If I did care, regardless of his past actions, I'd worry about his escalating self-destructive behavior sabotaging Tesla and SpaceX going forward.

Musk very obviously has to live right on the edge of chaos, always has to double down.

Musk's compulsion sorta reminds me of cyclist Graeme Obree. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graeme_Obree The way I heard it; part of Obree's internal drive, beyond all ration limits, was he truly believed he'd die if he didn't succeed. Literally racing for his life.

From a very far away, I wonder if Musk's mania is like Obree's in some ways.




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