I would love to have heard your thoughts as of 1Q21 on 3.5% using the same inputs.
There were brand-name crossover (I won't call them HFs) folks claiming that we would never see positive inflation ever again (right before that fateful Apr-21 print)
I mean I won't name names, but yeah. Best-fit line on CPI was pointing to below zero within the decade (and a common statement was 'humans see crossing 0 as a major milestone, but numbers do not') and we had already seen deflation more or less happening in Japan [0] Italy [1] Switzerland [2] Greece [3] and other small economies with slow-growing population.
Hell, depending on what you believe about globalization and the nature of capital formation, one can still make a compelling contrarian argument that the developed world will see significant disinflation until we start getting serious about global warming (or global warming gets more serious, which is likely what will come first).
To be fair, none of those 4 countries listed have quite the level of control over their currencies' supplies like the US Federal Reserve.
On the "contrarian argument", I see the case for that having deflationary pressure. However, I believe the Fed will try it's damnedest to prevent deflation, at all costs, for the foreseeable future. I also think the US birth rate will find a floor sometime in the next 20 years, at which point (very hopefully) politicians will have gotten serious about immigration reform.
