I think you're probably right, by and large. The trick, then, is to get as many rolls of the dice as is possible, and to recognize as early as possible whether you've won or lost. If you've lost, cut your losses and roll again, if you've won double down and cling on for dear life.
While simple, this is not an easy call to make, I imagine.
which makes me think back to somebody saying how poker tournaments are a mini version of our free market democracy. As you win more chips, you stand to win even more chips because your incremental risk is a lot less expensive than somebody on their last few blinds. Someone with very few chips cannot afford to experiment, has to choose a hand with the highest rate of probability, and even then they can still fail!
Worse, since society becomes reliant on big players, their risk is further lowered by the fact they "can't possibly fail or it would be a disaster". At that point it's more like every big player gets an extra card they can choose to use.
While simple, this is not an easy call to make, I imagine.