> What is important to realize when reading this that it is a case of survivorship bias.
This is totally true, but taken too seriously it leads to inability to learn anything from almost any information whatsoever. What’s more, whatever you do (whether you take the advice of those who have gone before or not), you will not be able to decide whether you made good decisions or merely “survived”.
How does one proceed when anything can be survivorship bias and determining cause and effect for large scale operations like running a business is essentially impossible.
(When I say “anything can be survivorship bias” I specifically mean that no matter the cohort you cannot decide whether you’ve accidentally excluded unknown failures, and hence you have no assurance of the actual strength of any analysis you do).
This is totally true, but taken too seriously it leads to inability to learn anything from almost any information whatsoever. What’s more, whatever you do (whether you take the advice of those who have gone before or not), you will not be able to decide whether you made good decisions or merely “survived”.
How does one proceed when anything can be survivorship bias and determining cause and effect for large scale operations like running a business is essentially impossible.
(When I say “anything can be survivorship bias” I specifically mean that no matter the cohort you cannot decide whether you’ve accidentally excluded unknown failures, and hence you have no assurance of the actual strength of any analysis you do).