I think, in the medium term, all Musk is actually aiming at, is a crewed research station on Mars, with a few dozen people living in it. Rather similar to what we already have in Antarctica.
People will sign up to go. First person to step foot on Mars gets their name in the history books, next to Neil Armstrong. The rest get to join a very elite club. I suppose prison is kind of a club too, but nothing elite about it.
And Musk will call it a "colony"–aspirational naming. And maybe, one day, in centuries to come, it will actually evolve into one. I don't think Musk has really thought a lot about how to get from the "colony-in-name-only crewed research station" to a genuine colony – that's too many steps ahead. He just trusts he'll work it out when he gets there, or if he doesn't live that long, somebody else will.
"Aspirational naming" is quite a curious synonym for lying.
And to say that Musk has not thought much about X, for any X, is quite an understatement. The closer you look at anything he says, the less evidence of thought you can find. Today is a golden age for glib grifters.
Well, look at SpaceX: he founded it, he remains its CEO&CTO, and in 10 years it has gone from 0% market share to over 50% global market share–which was achieved, not through anticompetitive subterfuge, but simply by building a substantially better product at a substantially lower cost (and whatever government subsidies were involved, were made available in even greater amounts to competing companies which failed to leverage them into the same market success). Obviously he must have some capacity for intelligent thought to be able to pull that off. Of course, he employs many brilliant engineers, without whom none of that would have been possible–but, as founder/CEO, he created and sustained the corporate environment which made it possible for them to achieve that.
Yet, he does literally none of the work, and every unscripted public statement shows he understands nothing of the technical details beyond what he has learned to parrot.
He did not found PayPal, Tesla, or Neuralink, although he has often claimed to. Hyperloop is 100% grift.
Compare SpaceX to Blue Origin - while SpaceX has succeeded in conquering over 50% of the orbital launch market, Blue Origin still hasn’t made it to orbit - nor has ULA’s new rocket using Blue’s engines. Is that the fault of Blue’s engineers? I don’t think that’s fair - some of them are just as brilliant as SpaceX’s. The real blame, I think, is at the executive level. Bezos has never invested anywhere near as much of his time and energy and personal wealth into Blue as Musk has invested into SpaceX. And Musk has made much better choices of executive leadership (Gwynne Shotwell vs Bob Smith). That’s just one example of the massive difference the ability and commitment of a founder can make to the success of a business. (You’d think on a forum owned by a Silicon Valley VC firm, that point would be uncontested and accepted as obviously true.)
CTOs aren’t always super-technical-and even those who are, while the CTO of a small startup might realistically have an expert-level understanding of all the business’s core technologies, that is no longer a realistic standard when talking about a multi-billion dollar firm with a highly complex or diverse tech stack. Arguably, one of the most important tasks for a CTO, is to be able to tell the difference between good engineering executives and bad ones. And, judged by that standard, Musk actually has done a very good job as SpaceX CTO, much better than many of its major competitors. Doing that requires understanding the technology well-enough to distinguish engineers and engineering leaders who really understand it from those who are just pretending to do so-and I think it is obvious Musk does understand the technologies at SpaceX (and Tesla too) well-enough to successfully make that distinction. People seem to be holding him to an unrealistic standard, which I doubt they’d actually apply to a CTO who wasn’t named Elon Musk.
What about Larry Ellison, CTO of Oracle? Frankly I think Larry Ellison could say any crazy thing he liked, and no one would really care, and he'd stay CTO and chair of Oracle's board. Because C-suite executives get a "free pass" all the time–especially when they combine their C-suite role with a substantial ownership interest in the company (true of both Ellison and Musk). But most C-suite execs, the average person has never heard of them, and so they don't care what they say. Whereas, Musk is a controversial celebrity, so people judge him by rather different standards than the thousands of other near-anonymous CEOs, CTOs and billionaires in the world.
We can get the same experience today, without going to Mars, in places called "prisons".