I don’t think you could easily prove Twitter is materially misrepresenting the number of bot/spam accounts. Presumably, it is just an estimate based on some combination of assumptions and statistical analysis. You might be able to create a significantly higher estimate, but that seems different than proving material misrepresentation.
It's rampant tin-foil hat speculation, but the ordering of events may not be what we've seen.
Yesterday the big story was that two higher-ups in Twitter were fired unexpectedly, one of whom was on paternity leave at the time. Some amount of shake-up is normal in these kind of conditions, but that doesn't rule out something more. Today Elon's pushing back, suggesting the 5% bot rate may be inaccurately low. It's possible the events are related, some misrepresentation was found while investigating the figures, and that's why the firings happened yesterday.
If that happened, it'd be in Elon's interest to draw attention to it and that the deal is "on hold," as Twitter will be on the hook for that $1 billion breakup fee unless they can renegotiate terms favorable to Elon. And even if the deal dropped completely, now Twitter implicitly will be on the hook for misrepresenting to existing investors the percentage of bots for however long they've been doing it.
I guess we'll see. The truth will probably be more boring.
