Do you think you’ll see true AGI in your lifetime? I certainly don’t think I’ll see it in mine.
No other domain of the sciences is “complete” yet. There are still unanswered questions in physics, biology, neuroscience, every field. Why are people so sure that AI will be the first field to be “completed”, and in such an astoundingly short amount of time on a historical scale?
What makes you think AGI means AI is a complete field? Wouldn't that mean working out how to build a bridge without trial and error completed engineering? Or that biology was completed when we worked out how dna works + enough organic chemistry? Obviously we won't complete the field in our lifetime, but that's because nothing is ever really complete.
I think I'd put the chances of AGI within my lifetime at 30%. Low, but high enough it's worth thinking about and probably worth dumping money into.
No other domain of the sciences is “complete” yet. There are still unanswered questions in physics, biology, neuroscience, every field. Why are people so sure that AI will be the first field to be “completed”, and in such an astoundingly short amount of time on a historical scale?