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It looks like an interesting hypothesis.

To buy in to it I'd have to see some evidence that the hypothesis is supported in groups similar to the population of active users of HN. What I see is that a lot of main contributors are bought in heavily and so are unlikely to leave. It is these users here that are like the group in the article of whom it is said:

"The challenge to their belief presents an immense cognitive dissonance; they must find reinforcing thoughts to counter the shock, and so become more fanatical."

[at http://lesswrong.com/lw/lr/evaporative_cooling_of_group_beli...]

I warrant that those who are most civil, in this context, are those who are effectively 'fanatical' about maintaining the group as a useful communication tool.

Basically the evaporative metaphor requires you to decide who the fanatics are and you can spin this in different ways according to the result that you wish to forward.




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