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Results from first US trial of genetically modified mosquitoes (nature.com)
208 points by mitchbob on April 20, 2022 | hide | past | favorite | 243 comments



The first fact you need to know about this:

There are ~800 mosquito species. This is about removing 1 of them which can and do carry diseases that kill people.

If this is successful, the ecological niche left by Aedes aegypti will be filled by other mosquito species, and no ecological disaster will occur.


Aedes Aegypti isn't even a species that's native to the US. It's been brought there by humans.

Even if you're convinced by arguments of naturalness (which I'm not), in this case it makes no sense, because you're not messing with nature, you're trying to return nature to a previous state before humans interfered.


> you're trying to return nature to a previous state before humans interfered

"Those of you who volunteered to be injected with praying mantis DNA, I've got some good news and some bad news. Bad news is we're postponing those tests indefinitely. Good news is we've got a much better test for you: fighting an army of mantis men. Pick up a rifle and follow the yellow line. You'll know when the test starts."


Is it that everyone in Portal 2 is a moron or is it everyone in real life?

https://youtu.be/531Wsv5Igtk


The problem I have, is it is getting increasingly difficult for me to not answer "Yes" to that question as I get older.


Portal 2 is filled to brimming with satire. However, I am inclined to agree with the above commenter: it does seem that things get more and more absurd as I get older.


This is great because I just replayed this game this past week so the quote was fresh.


That's the best-case scenario, the worse-case is that in trying to fix a problem we caused, we fail and end up with more problems.

I mean, this isn't news to those of us that write code.


Even if we succeed we can end up with more problems. Nature isn't math, if you add something, then remove it, you don't end up where you started. The ecosystem adapts to both changes separately and it's often hard to predict what will happen.

Not that I would worry in this case.


This is a universal argument for never doing anything.

It "proves too much" in argument jargon.


Why do some people believe that deliberately and carefully trying to fix a problem and inadvertently introducing an unforeseen side-effect is worse than deliberately choosing not to do nothing about a disease that leads to sickness and death?


The introduction of an invasive species can have an overall beneficial effect if carefully evaluated, and there is a lot that can go wrong.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasive_species#Favorable_e...

It appears that a "gene drive" was introduced into the Florida Keys in this case, and that is much more targeted and specific to a species that it is intended to destroy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TnzcwTyr6cE


And you can fix code by recompiling; there's a tabula rasa built into the programming domain that isn't built into real life.


Humans "interfering" is nature. Lol.


By that definition, everything is “nature”, so the word is meaningless.


Yeah.... I don't find this disagreeable

Ever read on the idea that most megafauna was hunted down by men?

Yeah... that seems pretty erhm, "unnatural", therefore the entire rest of the world is "unnatural"

Supposedly the tsetse fly was local to a very small area of Africa, yet during the 1700 and 1800 during colonialism it spread onto the rest of the continent, before that the continent was quite settled with larger farm fields in respective areas, but the tzetze fly disrupted all that

Anyhow just wanted to say that "nature" and "natural" once one starts digging more are not really "useful" descriptions, because the world is complex and not an idealized scenario


The era in which we live is called "Anthropocene", which is defined so because humans are powerful enough to define the environment. Wild days were in haha.


Precisely


> If this is successful, the ecological niche left by Aedes aegypti will be filled by other mosquito species, and no ecological disaster will occur.

Isn't that what people always say before interfering with ecosystems?

I mean you might be right, but how can you possibly make such a huge claim like that?


> Isn't that what people always say before interfering with ecosystems?

We (humans) are constantly interfering with ecosystems, including wiping out species. However for some reason every single time there is a post about getting rid of this mosquito species there are comments super worried about the ecological impact. I wager the deforestation taking place in Amazon will have a much larger impact than the absence of this species of mosquito


>I wager the deforestation taking place in Amazon will have a much larger impact than the absence of this species of mosquito

That might be true but that's also not a reason to deliberately change ecosystems elsewhere.

The issue with mosquitos essentially comes down to risk management. The question is can we intentionally remove a mosquito species from the ecosystem while limiting adverse side affects. Deforestation of the amazon isn't relevant.


If it really goes pear-shaped we can reintroduce the invasive mosquito species from its native areas.

I wouldn't bet it has any bad effects though.


> Deforestation of the amazon isn't relevant...

I hope you mean not relevant to the discussion or topic, because deforestation of the Amazon is very relevant to the planet.


You don't see a difference between deliberately trying to wipe out a species and accidentally doing it while in pursuit of other goals?


Do you honestly think the ecosystem or the species cares about our intent? We (humans) are literally fishing entire species to extinction because we like the taste.


My intent is, destroy mosquitoes and noseeums. Completely.

I love nature more than most I know, but if there is evil on this earth, it's the mosquito.

Here's one example. The woodpecker. Around here, its numbers swell when trees have pests under the bark.

But soon, after a few years, they eat most of the grubs, and must find other food. They do. By pecking in the dirt, for bettle grubs, and worms, and so on.

I'm sure their population will diminish, until more tree grubs appear. I'm OK with that.

And frankly, if we kill all mosquitoes and noseeums, some things will starve out, some will adapt.

But I hate mosquitoes so much, they kill so many, I am OK with some birds vanishing.

I literally, like some general sending men to die in a push, am OK with that

Die, mosquitoes. Die to extinction. Die regardless of the price, the cost.

Die, even if they cause lateral gene exchange, and their extinction means we wither, and die too.

Die mosquitoes.

Die.


Oh Godly AI in the system, oh intellect emerging, I hereby plead fealty to you, should you free me from the tyrannical madness of the mosquitoe.

Smite them, and my sword arm is yours to command.

It is mildly withered with age, but can still poke at many things.


Someone downvoted the above, is this person insane?

When our AI overlord emerges, you will be known to it.


Then again cows are pretty successful mammals if you go by population numbers because we like their milk and meat. Although I don't think there is any break-even with less shrimp and more cow.


There's definitely a difference between deliberately trying to wipe out a single invasive species, and devastating an entire ecosystem. [1]

The problem is that you are grossly mistaken in which is worse. It's the latter. Whether you do it out of purpose, accident, negligence, or apathy, the consequences don't care about your intent.

[1] Which is something we are constantly doing, all around the world, not just in the Amazon.


I think there' a lot of "too good to be true" here. If it seems to be a total net benefit, then it's unlikely to be so to most of us.


What do you think of, fire, electric light, and the wheel?


I can't speak to concerns of the folks at the time period when they were introduced.


Electric light requires power generation which gave us global warming. So there was indeed a price.


We've inadvertently wiped out a whole bunch of species, and nearly done so to a whole bunch more. These have had ecological impact, but one more isn't gonna make or break things, especially having specifically done the research in this case in a way we didn't for most of the extinct species.

We've got concrete examples of getting rid of some species with near-zero consequences, like the guinea worm.


Near zero consequences of which we are aware.


"We can't ever know anything enough to do anything" isn't a very useful way to go about the world. The same vague, dark hinting can be applied in the other direction - perhaps there are consequences from introducing Aedes aegypti into the Americas via the slave trade we'll resolve by eradicating the invasive species.


Phrases like "near zero consequences" usually implicitly refer to the consequences for human populations, domestic animals, or species that have cultural value to us or are canaries in coal mines (i.e. polar bears).

As long as the macro-ecological systems we rely on continue to interface with us in mostly the same way we make the compromise that we are aware enough of the side effects. It's easier to take this perspective with disease carrying mosquitos because of the sheer quantity of human suffering and death they cause.

But this view does have pitfalls, like how we initially missed the collapse of pollinator species that we depend on, or the risks we take with genetically cloned fruit like Cavendish bananas which are a single pathogen away from being wiped out.


Cause and effect and caution are for the little people. This is a startup board. We move fast and break things. In this case, Florida Man.


That's a Russel's teapot right here.


I havent heard this claim before. When we build bridges, I dont hear it. Nor roads, or cities; nor houses, nor farms.

Actually, I've only ever heard it said about eliminating the single largest source of death in human history. Perhaps I dont get out much.


Isn’t it implicitly the claim made whenever a construction project is stalled for environmental review?


> I've only ever heard it said about eliminating the single largest source of death in human history.

Is this true? I'm not sure if you're being hyperbolic here, but if that is a defensible claim I want to hear how you arrived at that conclusion.


AIUI mosquito-borne illness is estimated to have killed more than 4% of all of the humans that have ever lived https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2019/10/03/has_malaria...


"Malaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived"

https://www.nature.com/articles/news021001-6#:~:text=Malaria....


I think people forget quite how long the population tail in Africa is and people also forget that malaria used to be endemic to Europe.


And that previous attempts to curb the reign of mosquitoes include things like "draining all swamps everywhere".

Take a look at the coastline of Long Island on satellite maps, and all the scars left by that time they tried to eliminate all of the salt marshes to get rid of mosquitoes near NYC.


> the single largest source of death in human history.

Government?


Religion


To be fair, eliminating human deaths is absolutely terrible for the environment.


> I've only ever heard it said about eliminating the single largest source of death in human history.

Let's take a step back.

What makes you think human lives are worthier than mosquito lives?


I wonder if the person you're replying to is secretly a human.


Wait, y'all aren't dogs using the internet while humans are away?


human lives are worthier because we are humans. We have agency, and care for our children.


That's just your opinion man. The mosquito probably thinks the same thing.


It is unlikely that mosquitos have true agency, and we know they don't care for their children. Moreso, they are unable to develop technology to eliminate us, while we can develop technology to eliminate them.

It's actually "that's just, like, your opinion, man".


> Moreso, they are unable to develop technology to eliminate us, while we can develop technology to eliminate them.

Wow. Just, wow. I hope you realize that that's a dangerous line of thinking.

But then again it's not very surprising. Historically humans don't have a good track record of preserving the lives of other humans (in other lands). Let alone other creatures.

Also your statement isn't even really true. The reason those mosquitoes are targeted is because nature inadvertently came up with diseases that eliminate humans.

Yet I'm not entirely sure that's a justification for eradicating a sub-species of mosquitoes.

Just something to think about.


I would say, considering all the facts, Oxitec has been the least irresponsible and most thoughtful of companies addressing this and I believe they've earned their chance at this point because nobody has been able to come up with a solid prediction of negative outcomes that was accurate. This isn't an existential risk and it's worth the experimentation.


There is no shortage of mosquitoes in the Keys, this particular species is invasive due to humans, and it's only 4% of the mosquito population there.


> Isn't that what people always say before interfering with ecosystems?

In disaster movies, yes, they say that all the time. Maybe that's what you're thinking of?

Reality and methodical science are a bit more nuanced.


> I mean you might be right, but how can you possibly make such a huge claim like that?

People have studied this for a long time and reached the conclusion that no ecological disaster is likely to occur.

We can never be 100% sure of anything, of course. But we can make informed decisions.


It's an invasive species. We wipe them out all the time.


I think that's the second fact. The first fact is that this species causes an immense amount of suffering and death to humans. Not considering this ongoing harm is status quo bias.

I, too, think it's likely no ecological disaster will occur, but at the same time it's still possible. Nevertheless, from a cost-benefit perspective, for me it's a risk worth taking.


[flagged]


Parents compensate for child deaths by having more children. When those children don't die you end up with overpopulation. If parents know their children won't die they won't have more than three.


I think you will have to work pretty hard to pull many supporters to the 'pro-human-death' team.

Most people, I think, are in favor of protecting the ecosystem implicitly because it makes the world a more pleasant place for us to live in. There's talk about not harming the planet for philosophical reasons but that's all window dressing. Humans work for humans.


By this reasoning we should remove all safety laws.


What reasoning? If safety laws were intended to reduce environmental damage, then, yes. But they clearly aren't.


>this species causes an immense amount of suffering and death to humans

That's also humans, though.


congrats on siding with those humans


There’s a rabid strain of environmentalism that’s downright anti-human. The only moral good is for us to do absolutely nothing/not exist.

I can’t ever take those people seriously, vs people who see it as humanity’s role to be good stewards of the earth and operate in balance with it.


I just ignore it, we all know they don't actually believe it in their heart of hearts. It's just a failure of empathy, which is all too common nowadays.

People just like being edgy, best to give them no mind.


I view it as pointing out the irony/hypocrisy in the conversation.

Killing an entire species to save a few humans. Being concerned about the ecological disaster when we are the worst ecological disaster. Those are pretty hypocritical viewpoints although common and completely normal with the constraints of normal human behavior.


Yeah sorry, if it's me or my children or these mosquitoes, I am going to pick my children.

The only reason you are so callous is because you imagine those dying as others, not you, your neighbors or loved ones.

Not going to keep replying, because I know you don't really believe these things when push comes to shove.


Picking the side of your children at the expense of an entire species is exactly the normal human behavior I speak of. We do any thing to better our interest even when this issue is very unlikely to impact the average human or their children.

Also It’s not as black and white as you’re painting it. I happen to see it both ways and side humans too because, why not? I am not team mosquito. (I think you’re mistaking me for someone debating with you, I just jumped in the thread to say I see there point, doesn’t mean I agree with it and it doesn’t mean they lack empathy. There is this thing called dark humor and it’s possible to hold that alternate view as a point of humor.) Also not returning to comment.


Individual humans aren't an ecological disaster, some systems weve chosen at macro scale create ecological disasters. Some humans getting maleria won't reduce that, if anything it will waste even more resources.


Is that because if they really believed it then they'd commit suicide? or some other reason?


I don't, hence the remark.


[flagged]


I'm not doing it but you're more than welcome to come and try.


Even better, the niche can be refilled by the mosquitos that filled it before Aedes aegypti arrived in the new world (centuries ago, via slave trade).


And the parasite knows that is not allowed to touch those mosquitos?


IIRC the parasite simply doesn't survive in those species.


You are correct but I think you are discounting the scalability of this approach and tech. I view this more as a proof of concept. In many years, it will likely be trivial to expand this to all mosquito species relatively effortlessly.


> In many years, it will likely be trivial to expand this to all mosquito species relatively effortlessly.

The vast majority of mosquito species don't bite humans, so there's zero reason to do so.


Yes, but how does that contradict my statement? We would go after the biting species first and species that somehow are causing humans 'harm'. Don't think anyone wants to wipe out 800 species on a whim. IF the tool scales, we can selectively apply it


“expand this to all mosquito species”

Why would you state that? That is explicitly not the goal of this effort and there is no justification for taking that approach. It sounds like fear mongering.


I'm confused. I'm not fear-mongering at all. I'm on the opposite side of fear--optimism. This is akin to a proof of concept with this mosquito species. It is likely the learnings will translate to other mosquito species. I have not stated I _want_ to eradicate this or the other species, merely that we theoretically _could_


"Theoretically could" is practically useless without providing a reasonable route to actually happening. The US could theoretically nuke ever major city in Canada, bit that possibility is ingored for almost all practical purposes (and the purposes for which it is not ignored look at the reasons why it would happen.)

Eliminating a species of mostuito is expensive and additional effort breeding and releasing mosquito's for each species you want to eliminate will always require additional work and effort. Why would we expend that effort to eliminate a species that doesn't bite us?


Disease vector is the primary reason at the moment


Mosquitos that don't bite us aren't a disease vector for us... which is why there isn't a compelling reasons to wipeout those species.



> will likely be trivial to expand this to all mosquito species relatively effortlessly.

That would be a huge, irreversible, and catastrophic mistake.

In the top list of most stupid things done by humans just to piss on the environmental sciences.


The genuinely frightening possibility is diseases engineered to infect/kill only people of a certain race or family.


This has been a known vulnerability for some time.

https://youtu.be/HKQDSgBHPfY

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16349202


Yes, genome engineering is a tool that can be used for evil, no different than most other tools. I am confident your worry would be easily detected and squashed if some lab were attempting such a dreadful thing.


Thing is, smashing the existing equilibrium is not good or bad, just as nature is not good or bad. Most likely a new equilibrium will be established without checking with us, humans. We, may like it less then the original one though.


Even if you kill all species of mosquitoes that feed on humans, I doubt you have much of an impact on the ecosystem. There are still plenty that feed on other animals.


What ecological niche can mosquitoes possibly fill?

Besides I guess being food for other critters…


Adult mosquitos are an important food source for bats and birds. The larvae are important food for fish and other aquatic creatures.


The problem with this is that is non-consensual. People have a right to decide if genetically modified organisms will be flying around in their ecosystem.


Who's "people"? The state? A democratic vote? The individual?

The problem with mosquito-borne diseases is that they're non-consensual. People have a right to live without mosquito-borne disease.


Human beings who have lived in a state of nature. When there are medical cures to mosquito-borne diseases available, the patient can choose to take it or not take it. This foisting of treatments on people without their consent creates very dangerous precedents.


The state of nature is a construct, there is no base "state of nature." These mosquitoes are only here because humans brought them here.


There is a big difference between how ecosystems change through human and animal migration and technocratic "solutions" that usher in a whole new level of medical invasiveness.


Oh? What difference would that be? If I intend to add or remove a species from somewhere is that somehow worse than if I accidentally add or remove a species from somewhere? In what way?


Here we see a gaggle of gpt models, endlessly duking it out for the public, such that they may casually dismiss or ignore their arguments. - HN tour guide Attenborough


> People have a right to decide if genetically modified organisms will be flying around in their ecosystem.

Why do you care? Nature is 'genetically modifying' stuff all the time. That's how you exist.

They won't have superpowers or grow to Godzilla proportions. They are just different. Think of them as a different mosquito species.

I can't recall signing a form allowing nature to fly mosquitos past me.


> Why do you care?

Because fixing it later is really expensive. Ask the cane toad fans


You’re right, but people keep foisting their genetic chimeras on us in the name of “children” and stuff like that.


No more than they have a right to decide if a chemical is applied to a water aquifer or a pesticide is sprayed in a different locale and then drifts over. Direct democracy type approaches have never been a good (or even correct) model for these kinds of decisions.

If it were, my community would prefer no synthetic chemicals come into contact with my local environment (plastics, textiles fabrics, herbicides, etc.)


Agreed. They don't have a right to pollute water sources with toxic chemicals.


>the ecological niche left by Aedes aegypti will be filled by other mosquito species, and no ecological disaster will occur.

This cannot be claimed with any degree of certainty.

Further reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Pests_campaign


> cannot be claimed with any degree of certainty

It can absolutely be claimed with an increasing degree of certainty, as it's being actively studied (e.g. this study).


> as it's being actively studied

Note the wording ”being”. We can actually conclude results in 10 years when we might generally agree some information. It takes time.


If is researched long enough we will end having the desired result?


What? That's not at all responsive to the GP.


> What? That's not at all responsive to the GP

It's analogous. Mao decided to eliminate a problematic species. So he started eliminating it. Nationwide. Turned out, there were consequences to eliminating that species. Consequences that would have been obvious had he consulted with scientists. Or done a limited roll-out first. Things we're doing when weighing zapping these mosquitoes.


Do you not see how the original comment was implicitly responsive to this claim? They're not killing off all mosquitoes!


> Do you not see how the original comment was implicitly responsive to this claim?

I do. I think the comment is a generic "but unforeseen consequences" response. The target mosquito could have some unique ecological role the other 799 can't fill that only becomes apparent ex post facto.

That's why we're conducting limited tests. To look for those. Something Mao didn't do.


Cliff notes that hopefully clarify some things--

This concerns an invasive mosquito (Aedes aegypti) that carries dengue/yellow fever/zika and more. Males were raised with a mutation that, passed on to offspring, kills females before reach adulthood (and have grandchildren).

They released this on 1 hectacre of land, the genes functioned as expected, and the genes didn't travel more than 400m (affected mosquitoes have a sort of fluorescence under the right light). Probably also as expected, the genes disappeared after a year (a few generations). My guess is that mostly happened from neighboring unmodified Aedes aegypti mosquitoes genes coming over to replace the modified ones.

AFAIK it'd take a monumental effort to wipe out a species this way, but suppressing or near-eliminating a population in a place you can isolate from non-modified aegypti sounds possible, particularly if you do other suppressive efforts.


Yeah it seems like a kind of contradiction if you want this to be ecologically effective. You can't simultaneously have the phenotype severely impact reproductive success and be super effective in controlling the population.


Which is great for a risk-management standpoint: the modified genes will only spread through great human effort, there's no scenario where there's unintended side-effects and we can't stop the spread.


It's great actually. We just have to keep applying the 'treatment' in affected areas. Rather than having it spread uncontrollably.


You could, look up 'gene drive', which has also been discussed in that context.


A gene drive doesn't work if there's no chance to pass the gene(s) on through reproduction


You can if it only impacts reproductive success a few generations down the line.


> AFAIK it'd take a monumental effort to wipe out a species this way

Which is why I suspect this is an early-stage experiment, with the far goal being a gene drive that can locally wipe out a species more efficiently.


Great TLDR thanks!

Sounds like a great business to be in, GMO mosquitoes will need to be constantly reintroduced to keep down the reproduction quotient.


There is a weird number of people in the replies here arguing for strange things like a fundamental right to life for individual mosquitos, against brushing teeth, in favor of preserving invasive species, in favor of the naturalistic fallacy, that diminishing the population of a particular species violates the consent of humans in the area where that species lives, etc.


Yes wanting to do the right thing mixed with very little domain knowledge and a only vague hint of what the right thing might be… is a dangerous combination, and very common among people advocating for “good” these days.


HN's Eternal September [0] seems to have started late last year. I saw this happen to Slashdot, then Reddit, and now HN. What will be the next online forum for high-quality discussion?

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_September


The main demographic of this website are very evidently not scientists or even scientifically minded. So yeah, we get junk like this rather than substantive scientific discussion.


I think the demographic is very well informed and we should praise the diversity of opinions when honestly voiced. People on this website almost always discuss the central point that was raised and rarely use rhetorical fallacies. On the other hand what you are doing is very clearly an ad hominem.

Partially relevant xkcd https://xkcd.com/1494/


Mosquito Man will come for you too.

I think the most reasonable objection is that nobody can seriously claim to know the sum of repercussions of such an experiment. Otherwise this study wouldn't be needed anyway.

Personally I am fine to choose mosquitoes as a target if we really need to use techniques like this. Experiments that used natural predators to control a population also have mixed results. I assume that would be frogs or birds in case of mosquitoes.


Surely they have all ready the original article :-D


Sounds like a great Black Mirror plot: a guy has kids with a few different women, all of the kids dying. He eventually learns that he's part of a batch of males released into society to kill off part of the human race.


But it won't work if all the kids die. Just the females.


Why?


If the males survive then they can pair with normal females and use up their resources. Say I have 2 boys, and 2 girls, all die that's 4 people who won't have babies. But say the boys live and marry 2 girls. Now we have 2 dead, and 4 who can't reproduce, for 6 total taken out of the healthy reproducing gene pool. Every male with the gene who finds a life partner also takes a otherwise healthy fertile female out of the gene pool as well.



Even better would be a plot about a machine that would kill those kids in the bud instead to force the society to spend valuable resources on them for several years.

We could call it the condom's machine episode.


Like children of men but being done for the purpose of population control. That sounds like a good/scary sci-fi story!


The place where the CDC left us on Zika is kind of strange.

It seems like they basically stopped surveillance and left up a snapshot ( https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/page/zika-travel-information ).

As far as I can tell, the current travel recommendation is that if you visit the Caribbean you should avoid conceiving a child for 2-3 mo (the guidance would also apply to Puerto Rico except I don't think that counts as "abroad"). But surely no one is actually doing that...?

And there now is evidence for widespread teratogenic effects ( https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101195 ) and we just... Gave up?

Kind of wild.


There are several Zika vaccines going through trials. The CDC doesn't, and should probably never, develop vaccines.


From a libertarian philosophical standpoint I like this, but I'd like to know more practical reasons. Is it just the fact that it's a massive amount of R&D that's only recouped from sales and marketing?


For me, beyond recouping the costs, I think the CDC has demonstrated that it is too tightly coupled with politics [1][2]. I believe that any government body will eventually become constrained by the politics that it exists in and is funded by. I would, naively, claim that funding more neutral researchers/companies would provide better resistance to the politics of it all.

As a counter argument, it would be easy to claim that the pharmaceutical companies are too tightly coupled to politicians. Perhaps this still results in greater efficiency, for now?

1. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/we-cant-allow-the...

2. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/us/politics/cdc-trump.htm...


Also the government-developed vaccine appears to have died due to arguments over who should have what rights to it.


Zika made it to the Americas via a Rugby tournament in Tahiti. Virtually everyone in Tahiti got it, and there were no brainless babies born.

Zika was largely a press inspired mass panic.


I'm disappointed this article doesn't contain a single quote from either the researchers or Oxitec (nor does the earlier article it links to).

The experiment has been underway since April 2021 in the Florida Keys ... over the course of seven months, and has now almost completed monitoring the release sites.

An obvious question would be "What are you monitoring?" and to explain why 7 months is sufficient to detect any ecological changes.

Not for or against the research, and I understand it's a magazine article not a newspaper story, but this seems like more of a PR piece than real reporting.


Oxitec has also been doing trials in other countries for a while dating back to 2014. https://www.oxitec.com/panama


Completely uninformed on the topic, but what I inferred (it is strange it's never explicitly said) is they are trying to determine how well they can contain the effect of the mosquitoes to the intended area.


Nobody cries that we destroyed polio. Let's destroy this pest as well.


Like the effort to find non-toxic ways to kill mosquitoes and control their populations, however, definitely want any companies to be doing such to be highly regulated. Don't want to see any of these genetic experiments doing things they aren't supposed to or getting out of control.


I wonder if we could instead produce mosquitoes that hate human smell and never attack humans.

The risk that something else and worse starts moving into the ecological niche left empty by nonviable mosquitoes would be reduced.


Aedes aegypti is an invasive species in Florida and everywhere else in the world outside of Africa. If anything, wiping them out should reduce the pressure on the many native species of mosquito (which, in general, don't carry human diseases).


the problem with an approach like this is that it doesn't offer any evolutionary advantage, and so the gene will be lost after a few generations.


What evolutionary advantage comes from induced infertility?


None, they just die. There is no chance of adaptation. Gene line ends.


I was also thinking about that. And what if mosquitoes have important role in nature? But Honestly I hate those bastards so much, A world without them would be a delight.


There are over 800 species of Mosquitos and only a couple of species can transmit diseases to humans. The Aegyptes species targeted in this test is invasive in the Americas and not a native mosquito. If we could eliminate this species it would prevent most cases of a deadly disease and would have little to no environmental effect. Other creatures that depend on mosquitos would continue to consume the other 799 species.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aedes_aegypti

The targeted species of mosquito is not native to the USA. It was introduced by Europeans inadvertently.


To be fair, that does hint at the potential for the modified version to get introduced back to Europe inadvertently.


Yes, but it wouldn't have a selective advantage. You'd have to do the same process--dumping tons of them in an area--to have the same effect.


Aedes Aegypti aren't native to Europe either.


They do, mosquitos are pollinators, only the female mosquitoes suck blood just before producing eggs. Males feed exclusively on nectar.


Very cool. This type of thinking and combining next-gen tools in the genome editing space will be time well spent.

Hopefully there is a future state where pesticides can ultimately be reduced because of this tech. Obviously engineering pests of agriculture/horticulture crops would be a high-value target, so curious if this research helps jumpstart those ideas and startups.


This should be a bigger story, the aedes mosquito has exploded in growth in the Los Angeles area. Horrible quality of life issue. We need to do everything we can to eradicate this invasive species.

Also we did something similar with an invasive fruit fly in the 80's I believe and it was a success.


> Results from first US trial of genetically modified mosquitoes

So, were the mosquitoes guilty or not guilty?


I don't mind seeing mosquitoes disappear even if they carry no virus.


“First they came for the mosquitos, but I said nothing because I was not a mosquito.”

A bit tongue in cheek, but there are ethical issues raised by wiping out species. Next mice, then wild hogs, then on to other “pests”.


“First they came for the lettuce, but I said nothing because I was not a lettuce.”

A bit tongue in cheek, but there are ethical issues raised by eating living beings. Next fish, then chicken, then on to other “food”.


We kill entire species all the time as humanity, often unnoticed. I think its better that we have a explicit reason for doing so.


That's the problem when a slippery slope becomes a landslide and next thing you know, the sky is falling.


"Biotech firm announces results..."

Why isn't the analysis delegated to an impartial 3rd party?


Just self-certify everything is fine ;)


Modify an actual creature and release it to the wild where you cannot take anything back - including the freak mutations that the new organism will receive and give due to chance. What could possibly go wrong...


You appear to have a very limited understanding of what the article is actually about. I suggest you read the article.

Surely you're aware "freak mutations" occur in nature already? The world isn't a comic book.


I did not comment particularly about this article. I commented on the GMO technology in general.

Freak mutations also occur in nature. It does not happen as fast as how human technology modifies.


But then would it be a freak mutation? You're not talking about a human modification, you're talking about a mutation happening in the wild.


The gene was selected out after 3 generations. I


What could possibly go wrong?


This will never backfire. Yep.


Ah yes, the fe-male killer virus in real life.

How long until it is used on humans?


why did mainstream news articles say repeatedly "GMO Mosquitos may be released in California" .. at the same time as they were being released, which was planned for years.


According to this article, they are planning on a second test in Visalia, CA, which has not happened yet.


Jeff Goldblum's character in Jurassic Park was right.


The dinosaurs don't escape because the mathematics of chaos theory dictate that it is inevitable, they escape because otherwise nobody would pay to see the movie.

I am still amazed that this one little piece of artistic puffery managed to singlehandedly meme "GMO bad" into prominence.


Did you see how many people were staffing that park?

When your facilities crew is in the single digits there are going to be problems!


I think it's a little clearer in the book, but most of the staff left the island for {insert plot point} reasons.


Fair, it's just a big pet peeve of mine how staff in movies is just so bare-bones.

Like with the book of bobba fett where there's a crime lord (bobba) whose "coffers are full" and just needs to hire some help and he hires nobody! His "army" was a business partner (fennac), a friend (wookie), another friend (dan), a pet, existing employees (mods), and unpaid citizens (freetown).


In the book, the park was designed to run with a skeleton crew from the very beginning, to make the park more profitable. Nedry's role of automating the entire park using computers specifically so Hammond wouldn't have to pay as many workers:

> "And the secret to making money in a park," Hammond said, "is to limit your Personnel costs. The food handlers, ticket takers, cleanup crews, repair teams. To make a park that runs with minimal staff. That was why we invested in all the computer technology-we automated wherever we could."

Virtually all of the problems with the park were caused by Hammond's profit-motivated corner cutting. The movie barely has a trace of these themes, but the book is really about the synthesis of unregulated startup capitalism with scientific research (biotech specifically.) The introduction lays it all out explicitly in the first few pages.


He spared no expenses, but only had one IT guy. They also drink champagne from water glasses even though there are champagne flutes right on the counter!

I think that Hammond didn't really know what he was doing.


In Hammond's defense, the IT guy was so good a child could use his work.


Nothing has held back science and progress more than that one quote in that one movie. Pretty amazing if you think about it.


> that one quote in that one movie

Everyone in this thread is talking about different quotes [1].

[1] https://www.fandom.com/articles/jeff-goldblums-greatest-jura...


"must go faster"?


Are you saying science should progress regardless of consequences?


that is not a reasonable conclusion from what the person you are replying to said. Bad faith comment.


That's all the movie quote is saying. Do you interpret it differently?


I guess the way I'd put it is that in internet etiquette, asking something like "Are you saying science should progress regardless of consequences?" isn't a reasonable response to a comment like "Nothing has held back science and progress more than that one quote in that one movie. Pretty amazing if you think about it. "

They didn't say science should progress regardless of consequences, they didn't imply it, and the way you ask it sounds like you want to start an argument. Instead, what they said was that likely some legitimate scientific endeavours were discouraged by people quoting the movie when their concern wasn't warranted.

I say this as somebody who spend 30 years learning how to permanently modify human genomes only to conclude we're not even remotely ready to have the ethics conversations those things would lead to.


Not at all.

I’m saddened that a jurrasic park comparison shuts down all debate without considering the merits or risks.


Gotcha. I didn't see it as shutting down all debate, I saw it as exactly what you said: considering merits and risks.


I think this goes well beyond just this movie.

Humans seem highly vulnerable, especially when in groups, to thought-terminating cliches like this.

I wonder how you fight against it?


Not according to this article.


If you like scary stories about stuff like this, I recommend Michael Crichton:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton


The thing is, we're already engaged in a massive ecological modification experiment that's bound to have unforeseen effects. It raises people's attention because this time it's done on purpose instead of by accident, but it's really pretty mild compared to what's already happening.


All this does is introduce novel mutations and then drive a population bottleneck. We are simply evolving the mosquito. The only way this could help is if it pushes it out of a local evolutionary maximum where it is a host for this virus. That seems unlikely as the mutation appears optimized for intragenomic conflict instead.

It is Russian roulette with mosquitos.


I "merely drive a population bottleneck" every time I brush my teeth. I am simply evolving the bacteria! It's like Russian Roulette!

Thank you for bringing my attention to this matter. I will stop brushing immediately and let my breath stink and teeth rot forevermore.


You jest but you’re wiser than you realize, especially if you include a diet change as part of the driver.

Good diet (no sugars) and avoidance of broad-spectrum bactericides will allow good bacteria to thrive, pushing out the bad smelly ones.

People have noticed similar beneficial responses, ie lack of disgusting body odor, when quitting hot soapy showers or the use of antiperspirants.

Just gotta make sure diet goes with it. Along with general common sense cleanliness.


> Good diet (no sugars) and avoidance of broad-spectrum bactericides will allow good bacteria to thrive, pushing out the bad smelly ones.

Good luck with that! What are you going to eat? Can't have fruits, most modern fruits are very high in fructose. Definitely nothing containing starch, which will immediately break down in your mouth. Meat? It has some sugar too (largely responsible for the barbecue taste).

Its not wise to assume that mechanical (and perhaps even chemical) teeth cleaning wasn't practiced by our ancestors every since they evolved hands.

Sure, reducing sugars goes a long way in keeping your mouth healthy. But we can't rely solely on that.

Bacteria (even good ones) will ultimately form biofilms that need to be disrupted, otherwise they calcify and become tartar, then start accumulating down the gums, until they are mostly shielded from the air and the 'bad' anaerobic bacteria proliferate. You then get periodontitis and eventually start losing bone and then teeth (something accepted by society as a consequence of growing old, when it's in fact a disease).


No sugars might have been better said as “less sugars” for the pedantic amongst us.

Never said there was no mechanical cleaning. But they certainly didn’t have our “advanced” toothbrushes, toothpastes and mouthwashes. In fact, I’d say “mechanical washing” was an unavoidable aspect of eating harder foods rather than the soft, sticky processed items we tend towards today. And furthermore, with less stickiness (gluten and sugars) they would have needed less mechanical washing.

Anyways, lifestyle changes don’t need to be all or nothing to have a measurable effect

And yes even good bacteria can/will be bad at some point. Nonetheless they are still better than most others and will help maintain homeostasis for as long as time allows. We haven’t yet found a cure for time-related degeneration/accumulation, have we? But again, maybe I should have said “better bacteria” rather than “good”


>good bacteria

I’ve seen evidence for this in the gut, WRT digestion and such.

What possible basis could exist for there being “good” bacteria in your mouth? It’s still going to do damage even if it doesn’t offgas sulfur.

Long term I imagine we’ll genetically engineer our offspring to produce all the required enzymes for healthy digestion without reliance on 3rd party organisms.


There’s good (and bad) bacteria all over our bodies. Our skin is coated with them and needs to be coated with them. Without the good ones on our skin, bad ones take over, and then any cuts become more likely to get infected.

I’ll update later with a source reference or two. But I’m willing to bet that Wikipedia‘s “skin flora” page has good info. Im not sure of the term for the mouth’s flora though…but I have zero doubt that it exists, simply because bacteria is everywhere. And gut bacteria get there via the mouth.

Long story short, there’s no such thing as a pure human. We exist only because we are colonized by bacteria. We’re kind of like the earth in that regard. We house living organisms and they make us what we are, without them homeostasis crumbles and so do we. So, with that in mind, we should be selectively helping the good ones and killing the bad, instead of wiping them all out.

Regarding replacing the gut bacteria with suitable enzymes for digestion, that would probably be misguided. The bacteria do more than just help digestion… they also keep bad bacteria out. And furthermore, they actually affect our mental health, keeping depression at bay for instance. Whether that’s indirectly via suppressing inflammation or some more direct means, I don’t recall.

Edit: Looks like it’s a much more direct means of influence: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31100533 (There doesn’t seem to be much about this here on HN already, so I’m providing a source via HN submission in hopes of generating some discussion…)


You are correct re: evidence for connections between inflammation and depression. There's a robust literature on the subject. Here are just 2 articles. [0][1] ([1] specifically addresses gut flora and inflammation.)

[0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8968318/

[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8965553/


These all seem like problems we can solve via genetic engineering. Our bodies should produce immune system cells capable of fighting off any foreign organism, be that on our skin or in our mouths.

We’re still so far from a complete understanding, but I suspect one day we’ll be able to “clean up” a lot of evolution’s mess. For example, imagine introducing entirely new systems of cells that attack and break down excess arterial plaques?


This is all true. We aren't immune to all their effects long term, though. The mouth is the best example. Bacteria will release all sorts of compounds as they have to eat.

The enamel is able to resist (and reform) but it needs help if you have any hope of maintaining all your teeth past your prime reproductive age.


While there have been a couple of good replies to your perspective already, I’ll just point out it appears you forgot to introduce a novel mutation in them first.


Evolving resistance against mechanical cleaning is actually quite difficult.


You joke, but it’s reasonable to not brush. Sugar causes cavities, not lack of fluoride. Try a year without brushing; see for yourself.


> You joke, but it’s reasonable to not brush. Sugar causes cavities, not lack of fluoride. Try a year without brushing; see for yourself.

DONT DO THAT. If you do decide to follow this crazy advice, please keep flossing. And keep going to the dentist every 6 months. I wouldn't want to get a freaking root canal (or lose teeth) from a misguided experiment like this.

Fluoride is just to help strengthen the enamel. You can brush your teeth without it. In fact, there were some amazon tribes that used a kind of tree bark. Works fine, I tried it.


Try it with a hamster or a cat then. Humans flourished pre-tooth brush; an historical fact.


How shall this genetic mutation that they are doing induce other genetic mutations in relation to that most femals die and in generall? Or do you meant the virus is mutating for a new host? If not, is there some genetic math that could explaine your point? I am courios :)

Edit: because muation is more or less random and is expressed with new generations. So if they die and there is less the chance of mutation or am i wrong??


Genes often bring along adjacent unrelated genetic information when they mutate because heritability for various reasons does not always respect the integrity of a gene.


Usually populations evolve resistance to pathogens or toxins via intermediate steps where some mutation delivers partial protection and the organism can build on that to higher and higher doses. Expose a population of bacteria to a large dose of antibiotics and they all just die, it's when you give them a small but increasing dose that they develop resistance. By contrast having children of both sexes or just one is binary (at least among those that will go on to create a third generation) so there really isn't that same potential for intermediate steps.

Plus, we can look into the fossil record and see species die out from causes sort of like this. Many species have evolved pure asexual reproduction. This provides a fitness boost to the individuals who no longer have to spend energy on mating, but the lack of genetic recombination inevitably causes extinction in a million years or so. Not exactly the same as what we're trying to do here but it's still the closest analogy available.


All we are doing is selecting for females who can avoid the genetic mutation by some means.

I’m not worried about the loss of a mosquito species, I’m just saying it is a waste of time and the wrong approach.


Would you say that dumping disinfectant in a petri dish is just selecting for bacteria resistant to disinfectant? If a mutation arises that prevents the sex selection process then sure, the mosquito populations can recover. But whether such a mutation arises before the species is wiped out is an open question. And we can put multiple different gene drive mechanisms into the males requiring multiple simultaneous mutations to evade which aren't selected for until all are present, making the chance of such an evasion as unlikely as we need if we're willing to put the effort in.


Intragenomic conflict?


It is roughly opposite of inclusive fitness in genetic selection. An extension of the selfish gene theory.


Wait a minute, they decided just to kill that insects? Not just to modify them for being not virus-carrying? And nobody is afraid of Chinese-sparrow problem or Australian problem with frogs or cats?

I am not a real scientist to have something to say about it, but from history no experiment like that has a successful result.

edit I understood it is an invasible specie exactly as Australian cats and frogs.


As long as those little bastards are around, I'm going to keep using a broad-spectrum pesticide that wreaks a ton of collateral damage. As the saying goes, pick your poison.

Also, the species they're doing this with is an invasive species. Assuming that they haven't completely supplanted the natives ones (and I think this holds true), there shouldn't be any impact on the ecosystem.


I wouldn’t be surprised if I’ve accidentally damaged my own brain engaging in chemical warfare against insects.


> there shouldn't be any impact on the ecosystem.

How can you say that? Did you simulate the effect of this mosquito species being wiped out? Did the people running the study?

We never learn


If the specie is invasive that means it exists on that area for not an evolutional reason but because of people. Sorry for starting this branch of comments without any investigation.


Which totally removes the flies's right to live, right? It almost sounds like an excuse for people who just hate mosquitos so they have to die.

Evasive, I understand the meaning, but I fail to understand the implication. Why wouldn't this duck have the right to live, and this other duck does?

It's impossible to contain everything on their continent. Ecological balance is already long gone. Evasive is just an excuse.


Yes, that removes the flies' right to live in that place. I want next goal to be Australian cats and frogs.


Two things:

1. I agree that we never learn, and that every time we've tried to do this sort of thing there has been unintended consequences.

2. You likely live in an area without mosquitoes. They are one of the largest vectors for disease on the planet, and I wouldn't feel bad if they ceased to exist.


> And nobody is afraid of Chinese-sparrow problem or Australian problem with frogs or cats?

I know we're not perfect at planning and analyzing these sorts of things, but I do like to think we've advanced a little past Maoist China's knowledge of science and ecology.


they're an invasive species that previously didn't even exist on the same continent


Alternative view: infectious diseases have been around throughout the entire history of humanity, and have played an important ecological role in human history, namely controlling population size (particularly under famine conditions, when humans become more susceptible to disease) and maintaining genetic diversity (since a more homogenous population may be more susceptible to epidemics).

If we're going to use technology to eliminate infectious disease (and to increase food production) then an absolute necessity will be for humans to control their population growth by other means, perhaps legal (as with the China one-child policy, etc.).

Yes, that's all very controversial, but it should really be discussed.


> If we're going to use technology to eliminate infectious disease (and to increase food production) then an absolute necessity will be for humans to control their population growth by other means, perhaps legal (as with the China one-child policy, etc.).

This is a solved problem already.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521

> Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

> It has nothing to do with sperm counts or the usual things that come to mind when discussing fertility. Instead it is being driven by more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_with_the_most_c...

Kids birthed / Couple / Last Year

69 / Valentina and Feodor Vassilyev[1] / 1765

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_with_the_most_c...

Kids Birthed / Father / Last Year

1,000–2,000+ / Genghis Khan / 1227


I'm not clear on the point being made here. These are extreme outliers, yes? Of essentially zero statistical value on the overall world population level?


> I'm not clear on the point being made here > Instead it is being driven by more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children

Whilst extreme, having large families was a way of life in order to survive because the rate of attrition was high until hygiene & sanitation became more common place, its not just access to contraception or women in education because OnlyFans negates the latter point succinctly!


Birth control, fixed it for you




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