> There's no actual new theory here, just the same ideas Kurzweil said in the late 90s re-hashed.
I have no idea who Kurzweil is. These ideas may not be unique but I have arrived at them at least somewhat independently.
> It's pure conjecture when AGI will actually happen. GPT-3 and Transformers are impressive but still many orders of magnitude away from human performance.
By now, we have lots of examples of technological problems where the last 1% is orders of magnitude harder than the first 99%.
There are also many examples of technological problems that we have gotten many orders of magnitude better at in the past 20 years. You're right, there's no telling for sure when any of this will happen. That's why I qualified my article with a little "this is all speculation" disclaimer in the introduction. These are simply my best guesses.
Kurzweil did most of the work to popularize the idea of the Singularity through a series of books (and related speaking tours) in the 90s/2000s. The title of your essay, "The Singularity is Close?" appeared to be a play on the title of Kurzweil's 2005 book "The Singularity is Near". I believe you that you've never heard of him, but I suspect he's influenced you indirectly through other tech culture/language.
He'd be worth a read probably. It might be interesting to you to see how some of these ideas have been around for a while.
> There's no actual new theory here, just the same ideas Kurzweil said in the late 90s re-hashed.
I have no idea who Kurzweil is. These ideas may not be unique but I have arrived at them at least somewhat independently.
> It's pure conjecture when AGI will actually happen. GPT-3 and Transformers are impressive but still many orders of magnitude away from human performance. By now, we have lots of examples of technological problems where the last 1% is orders of magnitude harder than the first 99%.
There are also many examples of technological problems that we have gotten many orders of magnitude better at in the past 20 years. You're right, there's no telling for sure when any of this will happen. That's why I qualified my article with a little "this is all speculation" disclaimer in the introduction. These are simply my best guesses.