Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

I’m not a weapons expert so I DuckDucked RS-28, and apparently it’s a missile not a warhead? Wikipedia says it can have a payload of:

> 10–15 MIRVs[3] Unspecified number of Avangard HGVs

I don’t know how to make use of this information.





Not what I meant, those were linked directly by the bit of Wikipedia I quoted.

I don’t know the implications of having these as a payload.

What size warheads can be mounted in this particular missile’s MIRV option? Are they typically all warheads or are most decoys? If multiple, are they likely to be redundantly targeting the same location, or is this used to target multiple locations from a single launch? The Wikipedia page on MIRVs basically answers “yes” rather than expanding my intuition for how these are likely to be configured.

The Avangard article specifies warhead payload range, but I have no idea how it’s intended to be used even if the maximum count per missile was not unspecified.


IANANWEONWP, but:

For the number of decoys vs warheads, I /think/ the only real design limit is the throw-weight of the missile and volume of the fairing. This[0] has slightly more information on decoys. The 'it depends' remark is based on the fact that, AFAIK, the choice of decoy:bomb ratio depends on what the attacker thinks they need. Since the US ABM stuff is currently just for very limited strikes, I would guess they wouldn't waste too much space on that. But, they have an option to increase the ratio of decoys:bombs if the US ABM gets denser.

The SS-28 missile has a high throw-weight, in either case; it's replacing the SS-18, which had the record.[1] The wiki page on Russian warheads is mostly filled with 'Unknown model XX megaton warhead', so there's not much detailed info on mass for that side of the equation.

For the Avangard, the advantage that hypersonic vehicles give over a bog-standard ICBM warhread (which themselves travel at hypersonic speeds) is that they're manoeuvrable, so that they can approach a target from an unexpected trajectory . They don't have to fly on a simple arc, and they can change direction, for example, launch from North Korea, fly over the ocean, then attack South Korea from the west. A couple places I heard them discussed was on The Diplomat's podcast[2], and a CFR podcast[3].

One last thing, if you need more things to not think about: FOBS, which poses a similar threat as hypersonics.

Edit: one last last thing: One way to think about decoys/hypersonics/etc is that they are, in a backwards way, a good thing, since they /re establish/ mutually assured destruction. Without MAD, the whole situation becomes more unstable.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penetration_aid [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-36_(missile)#R-36M_(SS-18) [2] https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/the-inter-korean-missile-rac... [3] https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hyperventilating-over-... [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_Orbital_Bombardment...

* I am not a nuclear weapons engineer or nuclear war planner


Thanks :)




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: