If we manage to get through this chip shortage and then China decides to invade Taiwan and we lose TSMC, I'm gonna fucking lose it. Everything feels so fragile right now.
This is absolutely the lens we need to view the Ukranian crisis through. It's actually quite surprising that Europe has acted so strongly and unanimously in their condemnation of Russia given that they really need Russian gas to heat their homes. Sure, they haven't literally turned off the gas because they can't, but they've done everything but. It's up to Russia at this point but they absolutely can turn off that gas, and it has been suggested that they were limiting exports for the last 6 months to make sure Europe didn't have any stockpiles to weather an event like this.
I think recent events send a message to China that Western countries are perfectly willing to act against their own interests purely to punish a country that steps out of line. The whole of western Europe will suffer to punish Russia in this conflict, but the conflict has taken a situation where countries were semi-committed and made them fully committed. Germany's stance now, would've been unthinkable 1 month ago. It highlights how easy it is to push countries away.
We need to protect Taiwan because they are a democracy. The fact that the most important IC manufacturer is there is important but less important than the humans who live in Taiwan. I strongly believe the US plan for "strategic ambiguity" w/r/t Taiwan, which is basically lack of clarity over will the us go to war to help protect Taiwan from China - is stupid. China will attack sooner or later.
Democratic countries need to bond together so the current two powerful authoritarian dystopian dictatorships as well as any future ones are not able to destroy them. You don't have a right to destroy my country (looking at China and Russia) because you don't like the fact that we are democratic.
The Taiwanese themselves have used a silicon shield strategy (see https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip...) to ensure that it is in the USA’s interest to protect them against China. They aren’t counting on the USA’s Democratic altruism (which is understandable).
> We need to protect Taiwan because they are a democracy.
There is no “we” anymore. No way in hell am I sending my kids, or allowing my kids to be drafted to fight for this stupid ass country.
I don’t like Russia either, before anyone accuses me of that.
I’m just pointing out that your collective interest delusion no longer exists, I feel no connection to the country I was born in. Fighting to protect its decaying corrupt corpse is the last thing I’ll do.
And that was a message coming from someone whose family can be assumed to be relatively priveleged. How much cooperation will the draft man be met with in, say, our nation's black ghettos?
Our problem is that our leaders have not fostered the necessary unity to actually prosecute any sort of war that requires "all hands on deck". We can't just say, "they have bad attitudes." (Well, we can, but then we'd be foolish in the extreme to go to war with China over Taiwan. It would be Vietnam all over again.) We have to find out why that guy/gal's family feels dejected, and address those issues. We've made so many people in the US feel like they're not part of the team that it's actually become dangerous as the world enters this new, unprecedented, and more precarious phase.
> But if it's Russia, and Russia begins to expand further into more of Europe than I'd also step up, but not right now as it stands.
No you won't.
You'll talk tough on the internet, like a lot of other wardrummers. But when push comes to shove, you won't grab a rifle and go to work. That'll be somebody else's job, but you'll totes "stand with them in solidarity".
I think you're projecting here. There are plenty of people who will willingly pick up a gun and plenty who won't. Ukraine is the perfect example of that. You know nothing about the person you're replying to in order to know which group he'd really belong to.
Whoever wants to get in the fight can do so right now.
The Ukrainian government looks to have created its own foreign legion, so you'll even technically be fighting under the Ukrainian flag as a uniformed soldier.
Enlistment period is indefinite: until the "state of emergency" ends.
Update based on new information: Russia doesn't acknowledge the Ukrainian Foreign Legion (they keep rebranding, not sure what they'll end up sticking with), so if you get captured, the Russians will treat you like a criminal, and not an EPW.
But he is correct in his assertion that the vast majority will not. America is a soulless nation that “just works” as long as we’re all making money from it.
The second push comes to shove and we need to mobilize the nation ala-WW2 our leaders will realize just how deeply they played themselves.
If Russia wins in Ukraine, and doesn't stop there, Europe will switch to a war stance. In that case people won't have much choice. You either volunteer, are drafted or are working in an industry that makes your continued civil job more valuable than you being in the armed forces.
I think you left out the option for people to leave. Particularly in the US where such a large percentage of our youth are immigrant/minority.
Is a Chinese or Indian American 20, 25, or 30 year old faced with the prospect of dying for the EU going to join up? Or go live a happy life in Ningbo or Hyderbad? And those are the relatively successful immigrant/minorities. What will your average Colombian or Brazilian 25 year old do? Sign up to fight in the Balkans? Or go live a happy life in Rio well away from potential radioactive fallout zones? Not to even speak of Mexican 25 year olds or Black 25 year olds who already have a strained relationship with the US government as it stands.
Now there will always be some people who choose not to fight, but the past 40 years or so we have fostered an atmosphere where we have greatly increased the number of people likely to fall in that camp. At least in the US. It'd be foolish to assume that in a nation of immigrants, people would not exercise the choice to return to their nations of origin faced with the prospect of a (likely nuclear eventually) conflict with Russia. Especially when we'd want to put most of those very people on the front lines of that conflict.
If NATO europe is invaded my guess is all major powers would be involved. Not sure how much leaving would be available.
Also from the immigrants I know most would HAPPILY stand up for freedom and Democracy. Despite how shit we treat immigrants almost all are way better off here. There's a reason people are fleeing in record numbers. An all out global conflict just increases this exponentially.
Not to mention it's already great way to get legal papers. US army, France foreign legion, etc.
Though it is gross how we have treated some who have served for the US; the second they commit a petty crime they are deported. They should have the same rights and serve in jail here and then release here. Especially given the huge issues & obstacles our vets face.
To be fair: the French have some competent forces (FFL), as do the Brits (Royal Marines). I'd put both of those a notch above the Crayola Connoisseurs, and that's saying something. Lotta combat-ready dudes in Bulgaria as well.
But yeah, Europeans by and large lack the mindset of traditional Americans, who look at military service as a right of passage. It's been fascinating to talk with Europeans about the present situation. Most of them still really don't understand even the short-term ramifications of the current conflict, nor do they understand the underlaying causes.
That all said, I'm not sure where the next generation of American warfighters is going to come from. After the überbungle that was the withdrawal of Afghanistan, every person I know currently serving wants out now.
Correction without Taiwan there is no Nvidia, Apple, or personal computers using the leading edge nodes <=7nm. There would be shortages but there is still Samsung and Intel is catching up.
A Chinese takeover destroys TSMC, assuming it's not done through diplomacy. Industry does not survive war. That's one of the things that gets destroyed. And it most likely will not be done by diplomacy after Taiwan watched what happened to Hong Kong.
These situations are too complex to just view them as "democracy = good, tyranny = bad". I firmly believe this is a true statement, but the unchangeable fact of the matter is that attempting to resolve tyranny can lead to more harm than good.
There's a reason the cold war was a, well, "cold" war; the consequences of resolving it would have caused far greater harm. This is also the reason NATO is careful to avoid too much direct involvement right now.
So in short, also insert something about the road to hell being paved with good intentions.
I agree, but several presidents have given clear and unambiguous statements that the US would defend Taiwan. Both Biden and G W Bush did this.
In the light of the Ukraine situation strategic ambiguity is looking less and less attractive. A bit more clarity and commitment might have avoided this whole situation.
“ Western countries are perfectly willing to act against their own interests purely to punish a country that steps out of line.”
Going after China would be magnitudes more painful than going after Russia. It would also hurt the US whereas Russia is mainly causing problems for Europe.
The reverse is also true. Economic dependence between China and the west make conflict very expensive to both sides. That Russia is kind of out there means they can act (or be acted against) with fewer economic consequences.
This interdependence is kind of interesting. You could argue that China won't invade Taiwan because it will hurt the China economy or you could argue that China can invade Taiwan because any sanctions will hurt others' economies. In the end it's just a big unpredictable poker game.
He is talking about the sanctions. Less than <1% of revenue of SP500 is derived from Russia so US isn't directly affected by any of the sanctions in any way. They are indirectly affected by the impact on the price of commodities (which also affects China more than the US) so overall this whole sanctions situation is mostly fine for the USA.
With the caveat that China will export all that extra inflation to them which will exacerbate the domestic problems Biden faces.
If however China was to invade Taiwan and US/EU were forced to impose sanctions on them then you can basically expect a financial nuclear winter, everyone will be in pain, US most of all. China actually is a highly self-sufficient economy outside of energy markets (which it could adapt to especially if Russia remains an ally) while the US is heavily import dependent from China (hence the whole trade imbalance/surplus that Trump was bitching about).
TLDR: No one currently cares about Russia sanctions except Europe. The world can't afford Chinese sanctions.
> China actually is a highly self-sufficient economy outside of energy markets
China depends a lot on importing food, especially meat. The two most essential things they need. Food and Energy. And they currently struggle with both.
This is true but their biggest food trading partner is actually Brazil (second biggest is US though...) which would decline to impose sanctions on China. This is because Brazils economy is highly reliant not just on food exports to China but also iron ore.
They have already declined to impose sanctions on Russia because of their reliance on Russia for raw materials and fertilizer.
Any shipments may end up being blocked by Japan because they would need to go between Japan and Taiwan to get to China. During the conflict it will be delayed and risky.
Lets just hope none of this ever happens. I live in Taiwan at the moment. I just want to enjoy life with my family.
Such immediate sanctions are still pretty risky even with Russia’s small economy; you don’t know how leveraged someone’s investments there can be. It could also lead to them becoming a client state of China, though I don’t think that’s their style.
A week ago Russia wasn't going to invade Ukraine. I think if there is a lesson to be learnt, then that some things we thought are certain really aren't that certain.
Actually I didn't. But everyone else did, even though Russian troops were surrounding Ukraine. Now Russia is under much more pressure than Putin ostensibly anticipated. They wrongly published a victory piece after just a few days into the invasion. Also they 'made' a referenadum to station nuclear weapons in Belarus. So, I wouldn't be so sure is all I am saying.
Yes I agree with you and Descartes the only thing we can be certain of as conscious observers is we exist.
But I moved on from moderate uncertainty leading to a default of skepticism.
Some actions have very predictable outcomes even if they aren't guaranteed. with those I like to use the vernacular that implies certainty. That's how I feel about nuclear exchange. But I don't associate the probabilities of expectation of nuclear exchange and invasion as conditional upon each other. A surprise outcome in an invasion of a nonnuclear non-nato state wouldn't lead me to feel a nuclear exchange probability suddenly becomes inverted similarly.
Because countries have invaded others during nuclear times. That should come as no surprise to a student of history even if many didn't expect Putin to in this particular instance.
But the pressing matter is would Putin use nukes? Would he use nukes if it means easy escalation to a mutual exchange where him and his country would end up as ash? Nah I don't believe he would unless some development allowed him to nuke with impunity.
I didn't expect them to invade that quickly. I thought it's just a gamble by Putin to get concessions. What's his endgame? Keep an occupation or install a puppet government?
There is a third pipe which is ability of Russia to use foreign currency to buy stuff. That is the pipe that got turned off, it is not clear if/why Russia would continue to send gas.
On one hand they could stop sending gas, on the other hand what else would they do with that gas? I am hoping that they do not have significant storage or transportation to Asia infrastructure.
Maybe China just takes the Russian gas and pays them in Yuan.
I have a hard time believing that China will forward energy resources to anyone else when they, themselves could be using said resources. But I could be wrong. Maybe they're big hearted like that.
I think what Europe actually communicated to China is that they will cut off everything except for what they need (gas). In the case of China, the US and EU need basically everything.
> I think recent events send a message to China that Western countries are perfectly willing to act against their own interests purely to punish a country that steps out of line.
That's the point. The sanctions EU is imposing on Russia are getting very serious, so even without any military threat involved, China would think twice before invading Taiwan. Also I believe some countries already working on alternatives, which of course is a very long and costly process, but better late than never.
I wonder if TSMC has a self-destruct button. I do not think they want CCP to take over those fabs. Agree, this is a worst case scenario, and we need to get at least one TSMC fab in the US.
> I do not think they want CCP to take over those fabs.
This makes the very incorrect assumption that you could just swap out the TSMC staff and things would continue working. Chip fabrication isn't just about pushing a button to turn on a machine. It requires the massive amounts of esoteric knowledge of all the processes, machines, chip design rules, everything.
I imagine the conversation goes like this "Sorry, Mr Xi Jinping, your bombs caused seismic activity that destroyed the calibration of our machines and of the the 5,000 highly trained engineers we employ, only 2 turned up today and I'm not sure how much work we can expect from Raffles the team mascot.
Why the assumption that Taiwan would choose death rather than give up their fabs to the Chinese?
I have seen this implicit assumption here a lot, but I just don’t get it.
Why would they smash hundreds of billions of dollars of investment for freedom from the Chinese yoke, if they have to choose between the fabs or lots of people dying?
>Why would they smash hundreds of billions of dollars of investment for freedom from the Chinese yoke, if they have to choose between the fabs or lots of people dying?
MAD, or at least MAW (mutually assured wounding). Taiwan wants China to know that a hostile takeover will cost China TSMC[0] thereby disincentivizing China from taking over Taiwan. To say 'we value our people over our fabs, please show mercy' just makes them all the more likely to be taken over.
[0]including associated international outrage over losing their chip supply.
There are a few key points in the process that you could easily disrupt and pretty much cause a scorched earth type of response. There are a few ways to do it as well...like export all of the photo masks to the US or Europe. Those fabs can't produce anything without them...and all of the ones for their Taiwan advanced fabs could probably all be loaded into a dozen or less shipping containers. Destroying them is another way to go about it if you can't get them out of the country safely.
You don't really need it.
The semiconductor industry relies on equipment and materials from the global supply chain, in particular, the suppliers from Europe, Japan and the US. It's a team game.
If the democratic world stopped doing business with TSMC (i.e., a sanction), it would have barely any chance to survive, let alone maintaining the position as an industry leader.
I've wondered this as well -- and I wouldn't limit it to TSMC leadership. It could be a Taiwanese program or even a CIA one.
For the other replies to you saying that they can't just use the machines, China has been and likely still is trying to poach semiconductor expertise from Taiwan. One thing they lack is EUV lithography machines. I'm not sure if they ever got to purchase any, but the US government has blocked ASML from selling any to China.
They rely on a lot of equipment and materials from the west, and there are many production secrets that are kept under lock and key in the states. So they couldn’t operate for very long without fab equipment from the USA and Germany (which is intentional). It’s like Iran’s F14s, hard to keep going without spare parts.
Oh, I think part of this rapid coming together of companies and governments to imposes sanctions on Russia is as much about China -> Taiwan as it is about Russia -> Ukraine.
There are a variety of parallels in histories here. None of them exact except the clear desire subsume them. And while nothing about these situations is simple, part of the message were seeing may be aimed at China, as if to say "this is what will happen to you too".
That might not seem like a lot, but China's stability and economy as a whole is much more reliant on global commerce that Russia.
European countries know that a huge fraction of their energy comes from Russian sources, and Russia can turn that off, but the implied message right now is "we are willing to deal with those consequences" if/when Russia goes down that path. (Though economically, on top of the other sanctions, that would hurt them a lot too)
So part of the implied message to China is also that of, "Yes we know we rely on you for much, but we relied on Russia for a piece of basic, essential, fundamental infrastructure and were willing to let it go.".
I agree with everything you said, except for that last line. I think we (USA and general "western" identity) claim to be willing to let it happen, but only in words. I don't think that stance will last. Time will tell, I guess.
Tell me about it. I have invested in a new business (anyone want a fully custom PC case? heh), and now I have to stock up on food and seriously consider how to live with long mass blackouts, as well as prepare for mobilization to fight Russian invaders if they succeed in Ukraine. Eh, I'm already suicidal, so that would be a better way to go, I guess.
Hey man, if you're really suicidal, please get help.
Aside from that I can personally recommend exercise, d3, sunlight and a regular bed time.
Know that depression makes everything suck, you wont enjoy things you used to. Even if your life was great you wouldnt enjoy it. But you will again once you get over the chemical imbalances in your brain. I'm rooting for you.
It turns out, unless this has been debunked, that Ukraine supplies neon for lasers for... chip production. So perhaps the TSMC chief is a bit premature anyway, regardless of China. Of course there's a lead time in production.
I wonder why nobody is talking about the possibility of Taiwan joining China willingly - not tomorrow of course, but let's say a decade from now. People are ignoring the fact that they are ethnically Chinese - both in the ancestral sense, and that a lot of Taiwanese professionals are PrC born educated and raised.
The rise of the Chinese economy means that I think there exist a set of concessions - both economic and governmental - that the CCP could make towards Taiwan which would win them over.
I'm not an analyst or anything, but look where China was a decade or two ago - it's difficult to extrapolate where they'll be a decade or two in the future.
It could be a possibility, i.e., not completely out of the possible.
But, with Xi taking steps in a more authoritarian direction not that long ago, and the Hong Kong situation showing that they have no interest in autonomous regions, I fail to see how the PrC's gov would be willing to provide the autonomy framework that Taiwan RoC, would require, to continue prospering in the same way as they do now.
Thanks to Russia what used to be told as irrational, unimaginable or paranoid thoughts are now a real possibility.
Sometimes it takes a real shock for people to learn what Andrew Grove has told us repeatedly and yet most if not all still ignores it. I guess that has something to do with his experience having escaped from Communist-controlled Hungary at the age of 20.
China being China, and thus economically more savvy then Russia, I guess the will keep Taiwan's industry running under new management. Assuming Taiwan isn't scuttling before the new management arrives. But then I also thought Putin would be smarter than starting a war everybody saw coming miles away and risk forging the west together in a way I haven't seen since the cold war. There seems to be a reason why I'm not earning my living with political or strategic analysis.
I'm not convinced we'll ever see an end to the chip shortage while proof-of-waste crypto exists.
The interesting part of all this is that one company (ASML) won out in the race to build the machines for EUV lithography so for the cutting edge processes like TSMC's 5nm (and I assume 3nm?) the chipmakers rely on a monopoly where demand currently exceeds supply.
Now for GPUs and a lot of CPUs I see the obvious advantages of a smaller process: smaller chips, less power usage, less heat dissipation (although this is all complicated). What I don't understand is how older processes can't be used for things where this of primary concern. Cars have a lot of control units in them but I don't believe they all needs the billions of transistors a Ryzen does. Couldn't older processes like 14nm and 22nm be used to make these just fine?
This isn't my field but I'm also led to believe that a new process basically means an entirely new fab (vs retrofitting an old fab). Whatever the changes required are it's almost from the ground up except perhaps the shell of the building. If true a lot of these old processes must still exist right?
The old processes still exist and are cheap^H^H^H^H^H quite affordable, but only because the cost was amortized long ago and now the equipment is just milked for profit until quality control becomes too difficult. Building them anew is possible, but takes significant investment and time. Which about sums up the issue: many important items in semiconductor engineering have inelastic supply.
Fabs depend on reliable deals with industry customers years ahead, and during Covid they got badly burned on that front by car makers, and now the money flood is unleashed again on the market, but the market can't provide (yet).
ASML is still selling (and ofc maintaining) older generation machines. They also refurbishing the generations before that and still giving them customized upgrades for example for making radio frequency chips, LEDs. So yes, these processes still exist and are also out of capacity.
At first this was strange to me: why all fabs out of capacity from low to mid to high... But I guess it is similar to a housing market, where for example rich people want to live in bigger houses but overall price is roughly per square meter impacting the entire market. There must also be some chips who are okay with every resolution as long as they can book a slot somewhere. I can also imagine some chips even though they don't require the latest fabs do have much more value than AMD CPU/GPU.
Depends on what you understand under "shortage". Before Covid, GPUs were expensive, sure. They also had longer lead times, you did get them so, even as a consumer. And if you were somewhat flexible with the actual GPU, you didn't face a lot of issues.
Industrial supply, say for automotive, was never at risk. Now, industrial supply is lacking. That is a shortage. Crypto is only increasing overall demand and driving prices up for consumers.
That shortage, it seems according to industry experts, will be over.
My understanding is that presenting 'official positions' outside of shareholder meetings and disclosures can cause legal issues. He may be stating that it's a personal opinion to avoid that issue.
Well, I'm banking on an oversupply which makes production cheaper by making my team build up chip design knowledge, so we have some designs ready when it happens. If not, FPGA dev skills will still be super useful for our work.
