They do not consider it seriously. Both assume no economic cost from the no-lockdown scenario. Of course in that situation lockdowns cost, but it is an incredibly naive way to look at it. The assessments of those papers can only be done from a place of willful blindness and ignorance.
Things they do not take into account:
- The effect of a saturated healthcare system on the treatment of other diseases and accidents.
- Non-linearity of the death rate. The more people are sick in the hospital, the less resources there are and death rate skyrockets.
- The effect on the economy of thousands of people unable to work at the same time, due to being sick or having to care for sick people
- The mental health effects on people surrounded by sickness.
- Self-imposed quarantines and lockdowns.
- Possible public order breakdown with the combination of stressful situation plus reduced government strength due to COVID.
I mean this with no offense, but thinking that the only "bad" outcome of not having lockdowns is "a few more people die but that's it" is stupid. You should think seriously about it. There was no pretty way to come out of the initial wave of COVID. Lockdowns were awful but I really prefer them to the alternative. In fact, I would have preferred them to start earlier. If the lockdown had started seven days earlier we probably could have shortened by a month.
Things they do not take into account:
- The effect of a saturated healthcare system on the treatment of other diseases and accidents.
- Non-linearity of the death rate. The more people are sick in the hospital, the less resources there are and death rate skyrockets.
- The effect on the economy of thousands of people unable to work at the same time, due to being sick or having to care for sick people
- The mental health effects on people surrounded by sickness.
- Self-imposed quarantines and lockdowns.
- Possible public order breakdown with the combination of stressful situation plus reduced government strength due to COVID.
I mean this with no offense, but thinking that the only "bad" outcome of not having lockdowns is "a few more people die but that's it" is stupid. You should think seriously about it. There was no pretty way to come out of the initial wave of COVID. Lockdowns were awful but I really prefer them to the alternative. In fact, I would have preferred them to start earlier. If the lockdown had started seven days earlier we probably could have shortened by a month.