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"In fact I have a totally untested hypothesis that agile \"works\" because it's mostly applied by small teams to small projects."

I think that agile works more as an interface and contract helper between customer and supplier. A few years ago it was very difficult to convince a customer to follow the iterative way. The customer just wanted all the features in time.




On the other hand, small project sizes make this possible at all. For a very complex project you have so many potential users and customers that a single agile team cannot deal with all of them.

Size has its own unique problems.


Agile "works" because neither "agile" nor "works" is well defined. (Some agile methodologies are well-defined, of course.)




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