I don’t have access to tick-by-tick feeds any more to test this, but I’d predict that “X will go up or down next second, [ignoring UNCHs]?” is predicted more than 51% of the time by predicting the same trend as the current/previous second and that you’re going to win on percentage of guesses and lose on money (because the changes in direction seconds [where your guess is wrong] are higher vol than the trend continuation seconds).
Again the difference is that everybody (who cares enough) know about the trends, but only you know about the 51% predictions.
Assuming these information sources are independent - even if the trends predicted the market in 99% and your prediction was only 51% - you can still combine them to get a better estimate than the generally known one.
> A little over 53% of days are up (green) days and yet you can’t use that 3x edge over a 51% predictor to make all the money.
You can make money, just not ALL the money. And that's because other people know that too.