Microsoft has been losing its Windows franchise since two key events:
1. Netscape introducing navigator
2. Microsoft stopping development post IE6
This has actually given the web browsers a modicum of stability and people were able to develop against a stable medium, and allowed Firefox to catch up in terms of compatibility.
In order to regain its Windows franchise, it needs to reimpose the Windows tax.
Firstly, by making Metro IE10 plugin-less, it kills Adobe Flash as a navigator-pretender.
Secondly, by introducing a lot of IE10 specific extensions, it hopes that developers will start to make use of these, eventually leading to the balkanization of the web, with MS having the highest share of desktops, it hopes it can buy another 20 years of windows tax.
Thirdly, Apple's experience has shown that without plugins, developers will either have to choose between HTML or Apps. Now Apps are a great way to create lock in. The existence of plugins threatens that.
I see the current move more of a defensive move (vs. Apple/Google) than an offensive one (vs. Adobe). Microsoft did not and will not need to kill Adobe's Flash. Steve Jobs already did.
> Microsoft did not and will not need to kill Adobe's Flash. Steve Jobs already did.
The jury is very much still out on that one.
Plenty of web sites are still Flash-based at least in part, and big companies are still throwing serious money behind them, and this is several generations of iDevice-without-Flash later.
Meanwhile, subjectively it seems like the number of complaints from people using iDevices when they can't use a site for this reason has been growing a little, at least on the forums I follow.
The difficulty for Flash, though, isn't just that it has the issues that come with being a plug-in. It also has the issues that come with its development environment and underlying programming language, which have many of the same strengths and weaknesses as other tools these days, so there is nothing you need Flash to do any more. I doubt Apple can kill Flash alone, but a combination of HTML5, JavaScript, better distribution systems for native executables, new JVM languages running as applets, and any number of other technologies might well do it in the longer term.
I imagine Adobe are well aware of this, as they have been promoting a lot of alternative (and potentially much better) approaches to their traditionally Flash-owned territory lately.
For better or worse, flash is pretty much alive. Apple may need to backtrack on that if the competition uses it to erode their market share and they don't manage to "kill flash" in time for it to be a non-factor.
Right now flash penetration continues to be massive.
1. Netscape introducing navigator
2. Microsoft stopping development post IE6
This has actually given the web browsers a modicum of stability and people were able to develop against a stable medium, and allowed Firefox to catch up in terms of compatibility.
In order to regain its Windows franchise, it needs to reimpose the Windows tax.
Firstly, by making Metro IE10 plugin-less, it kills Adobe Flash as a navigator-pretender.
Secondly, by introducing a lot of IE10 specific extensions, it hopes that developers will start to make use of these, eventually leading to the balkanization of the web, with MS having the highest share of desktops, it hopes it can buy another 20 years of windows tax.
Thirdly, Apple's experience has shown that without plugins, developers will either have to choose between HTML or Apps. Now Apps are a great way to create lock in. The existence of plugins threatens that.