From reading news stories it’s the same people doing it. Mostly minors. I know correlation doesn’t equal causation, but it’s interesting here in a year period from those jail changes we see over a 5x increase in those crimes.
Agree - and its not that bail reform is necessarily a bad new feature, it's just a feature that needs more A/B testing to get it right for all end users. Bug fixes are needed w.r.t. the existing implementations.
Bail-reform is probably a good feature worthy of keeping, just don't leave a potentially bug ridden implementation in production without a plan to fix it.
Also its for sure the same people running the backend operations. The front end people doing the stealing are somewhat interchange-able.
Its the backend APIs operating at scale that are the issue.
For example, regarding catalytic converter theft:
"This is a very significant step in stopping the widespread stealing of catalytic converters which have affected hundreds and hundreds of people in our county,"... 12 suspects are considered middlemen and thieves and the three other suspects worked at recycle businesses who knowingly purchased the stolen converters to sell... Green Metal Recycle... is suspected of possessing nearly $3,000,000 of stolen converters. "One of the officers said this is like a black market Costco and it really was," Rosen said. These businesses melt down the converters to get the precious metals inside- palladium, platinum and rhodium drive up the value.
Feels like they ran into Chesterton's fence and decided to tear it down. Then rather than rolling back the change, they've instead decided to push ahead with the broken implementation.
The bail requirement was dropped for motor vehicle theft. The article about increased crime is about carjacking. These are not the same crimes, and carjacking is far more severe. The new bail policies did not apply to carjacking.
Further, your article about "mostly teen" offenders explains in great detail that that statistic should not be taken at face value. Since such a small percentage (10-15%) of carjackers are caught, there is a likely skew to younger, less sophisticated criminals.
Far from proving your point, you demonstrate crime is rising in the baseline, unchanged, crimes. Therefore, you raise the amount of crime needed for the cash bailless crimes to be attributable to that factor and not larger social changes.
Zero bail for 30 felonies including auto theft
https://crimewatchmn.medium.com/hennepin-county-lifts-bail-r...
Auto theft a year later increases by over 500%
https://www.mprnews.org/amp/episode/2021/12/14/why-has-a-wav...
From reading news stories it’s the same people doing it. Mostly minors. I know correlation doesn’t equal causation, but it’s interesting here in a year period from those jail changes we see over a 5x increase in those crimes.