This sort of exercise tends to have a mix bag of successful predictions (infinite monkeys typing Shakespeare and all) but it surprised me that the rate of successful predictions in that thread is so close to 0%.
> * Accelerating inflation perhaps leading high single digits low double digits in the next several years.
Didn't the US inflation rate went up to around 6% during 2021? Even though that's quite the hike, I wouldn't classify 6% or even 7% as "high single digits/low double digits", unless the definition of "high single digits" is now "greater than 5%"
> * Stocks continue to rise as a function of inflation.
The S&P500 continued to grow constantly as it has been doing for the past decade.
> * Full self drivering cars are no closer.
Is this really a prediction?
> * Reddit continues to decline in quality but no clear alternative emerges.
Is reddit really in decline, though? Doesn't seem like it. In fact, arguably things improved a lot in the past year.
> * Large chance of abnormal oil price volatility.
Does this actually mean anything? Also, there was a price drop at the start of the year due to a drop in demand (lockdowns and all) and since then price returned to the same point it was last year. Doesn't sound like it's either abnormal or volatile.
>Is reddit really in decline, though? Doesn't seem like it. In fact, arguably things improved a lot in the past year.
That depends on your quality metrics, and, of course, personal taste. To me, the continuous branching off of more and more arcane subreddits means two things:
- Your own voice bears more weight as the new arena is smaller at its inception
- The overall quality of discussions is getting blander as not every tiny niche sub can keep ace thinkers
So it appears that you can't have it both ways - fostering a great discussion atmosphere where, at the same time, every voice will be equally considered.
>Doesn't sound like it's either abnormal or volatile.
The WTI price drop was the 3rd largest in 20 years and briefly saw prices return to a level from 18 years ago. I couldn't have predicted that.
I can address the point about oil.
We seem to have reached peak oil already so the expectation is for the price of oil to go down.
Prices going up suggest market manipulation by squeezing supply by opec etc.
To the extent building supplies increase rent (new housing is a small portion of overall housing, so 2x spikes up and down in one component's price doesn't drive rent up 2x in one year), it is reflected. Groceries are included in CPI.
I found this too, I checked the top posts and it seemed as people were almost unanimously incorrect. These were likely "good" predictions too, it just shows how much of it is guesswork I suppose.
Amusing just how continuously shortsighted we are about this whole thing. I remember being sent some in 2020 thinking "oh, just WFM for two weeks". Here we are, two years later. Never could have imagined.
> Here we are, two years later. Never could have imagined.
I have to agree, that was very disheartening. Nevertheless, the writing was on the wall right on the first week of the very first lockdown, when so many people made it their point to not only reject complying with lockdowns and any form of basic personal higiene and health precautions but also be very militant and contrarian about violating public health guidelines.
It's hard to contain an epidemic when a sizeable part of the population is outright militant in contributing to it's spread.
Alas, it has become quite clear that whether the pandemic will continue or not has virtually zero correlation to what a certain segment of the US electorate does or does not do.
When lockdown started, I said in a company meeting that there was no way the general public will handle a lockdown, it will fail, and 3 years from now (it was Feb 2020 at the time) we will simply give up as a society and start to just live with a partially ignored and highly dangerous fatal airborne virus. I was optimistic, it looks like society is giving up at the 2 year point. The pandemic is as bad if not worse than the beginning, and yet what are we doing? We're relaxing everything...
Everyone at my company said I was depressingly stupid to think that. When I quit last spring, I mentioned to them that I was right and they were stupid.
Single year predictions are uninteresting. People either predict "more of the same, but that thing that is almost happening happens" and get it right or wild predictions that are all wrong.
A lot can change in one's life in a single year, but almost nothing can change in a society.
