We're not that far off; I think that is something Apple would do. But that's Apple going directly to content producers and making deals with them. That's not something Amazon, Hulu, Veoh, or Crackle could ever be part of (Netflix probably would get grandfathered in). Those are other middle men. Apple wants to be the middle man.
It's a really tough sell though. Right now Starz or ABC or whoever can create a subscription channel on Roku, X-Box, Playstation, and I highly doubt they would have to pay anywhere near 30% (My guess is that those platforms are happy to have the content, and allow the apps for free).
I think a lot of companies would stick with subscribe-outside apps. Again, same rules as the iPad, so that's okay. Netflix and Hulu would for sure. But:
There are 200,000,000 iTunes accounts with credit cards.
I really can't fault the established video subscription services for keeping at it, but wow. Can they really resist the power of the App Store?
Now, the interesting thing happens outside of the mainstream. If you're Major League Lacrosse, or a yet-to-launch uncensored rap video channel, or SOAPnet (ABC's soap opera channel that a month ago curiously backtracked on their February 2012 announced end date), CurlTV (an online live curling video site that folded earlier this year) or one of many other special interest channels (actual or potential), you're really interested in becoming a subscription channel on Apple TV. Just imagine hundreds and hundreds of those channels and you have a platform that appeals to people on a very personal level that cable can't touch.
To be honest, I'm in LA and this almost seems like I'm talking myself into starting up a consultancy specializing in Apple TV apps. Combine hard-to-find assets (iOS developers) and a presumed gold rush with an industry starting to decline (but still flush with cash) and you have a pretty nice business.
Those channels are already popping up on Roku (Wealth TV is one example). I think Apple TV can do it too, I just don't think they can play the "we're Apple" card and have everyone pay them that way when there are competing platforms with just as large user bases (X-Box and Playstation for example) offering a better deal. I'm sure Apple wants in to the market, but only if it's wildly profitable.
So far it doesn't look like being a box provider is going to be wildly profitable. The prices have been driven down to $100 - $200 tops so you're not making money on the hardware and there are too many competitors who want content to really make money through subscriptions.
It's a really tough sell though. Right now Starz or ABC or whoever can create a subscription channel on Roku, X-Box, Playstation, and I highly doubt they would have to pay anywhere near 30% (My guess is that those platforms are happy to have the content, and allow the apps for free).