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gwern
on Sept 2, 2011
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A History of Bayes' Theorem
'Seriously'?That seems plausible to me. It's not like nukes, asteroids, biowarfare, supervolcanoes, etc. have simply gone away.
taliesinb
on Sept 2, 2011
[–]
Luckily my argument doesn't depend on the messy details of any of those things. But I'm getting ahead of myself -- I should just finish the post.
Gupie
on Sept 2, 2011
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parent
[–]
Anything to do with world population history?
Eliezer
on Sept 2, 2011
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root
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parent
[–]
I'd guess Doomsday Argument (sigh).
dlss
on Sept 2, 2011
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root
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[–]
Look on the bright side: in the future the cranks might cite you as well
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