I'm not an expert, but if following @popehat on twitter has taught me anything, it would lead me to conclude yes.
He's charged with 18 counts, each with a 10 year maximum sentence, except 1 with a 5 year sentence. Manning faced 22 charges, including one that carried a potential death penalty, so broadly speaking Assange is facing fewer and less serious charges. If we take Manning's sentencing as a reasonable upper bound, he'd face 35 years in prison, with potential for early release. He's 50 now, so there's a chance he'd die in prison, but I'd give him better than even odds. And that's assuming what I'd argue is a worse than could be expected sentencing.
But in general the likelyhood of him facing a life sentence (or what amounts to a life sentence, 50+years) is low.
