Do you think the % of unvaccinated would stay the same next year?
My gut feeling is that it will increase, every 6 months when the new booster is needed we will get more and more people not wanting it.
How long until the unvaccinated are more than the vaccinated? 18 months?
What happens when they are the majority and ban all vaccines?
In that fantasy world they'd still need to provide evidence that the ban us justified, otherwise people can challenge it in court. The vaccine people have the "benefit" of a collapsing medical system and am absence of a similar load and collapse in countries with high vaccination rate.
Why? No evidence is needed that vaccine mandates are justified, as if evidence were required it'd fail immediately given the low and falling efficacy, that vaccines are individual protection so it doesn't matter what other people do, and given that hospital capacity is the problem of the hospital providers to solve and not their customers (this is fairly basic).
But hey, if you disagree with that last bit and think hospital staffing is everyone's problem, be aware that this sword cuts in both directions. It actually makes it super easy to argue for banning vaccines. Here's the argument they'll use:
1. Vaccines aren't entirely safe. They can cause blood clots, strokes, heart attacks and many other kinds of injury.
2. The injured end up in hospital, consuming medical system capacity which takes it away from the people who opted out and didn't take the vaccines. Possibly for life, in some cases.
3. This is selfish because many of the people who took vaccines and got injured are young and weren't at any meaningful risk of COVID. They did it to themselves despite knowing there were risks, because they were incorrectly scared, or authoritarian, or whatever, but now society has to take care of them anyway.
4. And in addition the unvaccinated are now almost all recovered, and they have natural immunity for life. The vaccinated on the other hand, are now dependent on endless booster shots which not only injure new people on every round but are also are extremely expensive and taxing on the healthcare provisioning system, meaning less resources available for everyone else. Proof: the UK has just started cancelling operations to free up healthcare resources for booster shots!
Thus, the vaccinated are a drain on the healthcare system and should have their freedom to choose endless boosters removed - or at the very least, they should be forced to pay for them themselves (and any subsequent healthcare issues they experience).
You may not like the above argument (I don't!) but it is not fundamentally different to the ones being deployed in this thread. And if the unvaccinated become the majority, as may easily happen given that vaccinated people will constantly be joining them as their status expires, then nothing in theory stops such an argument being made (although in reality the public health establishment would never go along with it).
0. The vaccines are incredibly effective, as evidenced by the almost zero rate of bad progressions. You can look up the studies for exact number, but I think mRNA was something like 80-90% effective against the original COVID-19, that's amazing
1. The risks you describe exist, but they also exist orders of magnitude higher when you catch COVID-19. So the choice isn't vaccine risk or no risk, the choice is vaccine risk or COVID risk. There is no if anymore, we will all get COVID. You can just get it without or with vaccine
2. The unvaccinated have much higher rates of bad progressions and might die before even reaching the hospital (for mistrust as well as medical reasons) and right now we have much more vaccinated than unvaccinated so we have more vaccinated people in the hospital than unvaccinated but look at who dies/gets damaged and which of the unvaccinated cases would have been preventable.
3. This argument is just empirically wrong https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/04/opinion/covid-vaccine-kid...
4. This argument is also wrong even if recovery immunity was for life (which is unsure), since as I said, we'll all get COVID, just that the vaccinated cases will be much milder and much less likely to wind up in the hospital.
These arguments are, fundamentally, not sound. And there are big difference between vaccine mandates, no mandates and bans. For mandates and bans to stand up in courts and democratic review, even as the ruling party you need to show evidence for your position since you'll force it onto other people. For the effectiveness of vaccines, we have that evidence, as well as a collapsing medical system. For a ban, we don't. So unless people with anti-vax beliefs completely abandon democratic principles (which I hope they wouldn't in those numbers) they could not institute a ban. In any case, my comment was aimed at highlighting this distinction: a vaccine mandate, like a lockdown, is/was justified by the conditions, not just dictatorial abuse, no matter how much those that don't like it scream about it. A ban would not. So it's a completely different thing to institute a ban at 60 % anti vax sentiment vs. a mandate at 60% evidence based decision making
Well if they are 30% now, they must have the 'evidence' that convinces them they are right, when they are 60% they would have even more 'evidence'. Why wouldn't they blame it on, the eastern europeans or something?
No,they do no need to have evidence. People don't always act rationally, and if you spend any time talking to a person with anti-vax beliefs you'll notice their belief isn't founded on evidence but on narrative, distrust and emotions. Which does not make them stupid, but it does make them wrong. If they had evidence, they could present it and we'd act on it, as was seen in Germany when there were concerns about a vaccine slightly increasing heart muscle inflammation risk, it was almost immediately halted and they stopped recommending it.
And I'm assuming we still have the same rule of law as now and they don't just make shit up, because I'm modeling my fellow humans as having a different (in this case, empirically and from a risk calculus wrong) perspective, not as evil. So they can't abandon democratic principles. Vaccine mandates are coming as a last resort now due to exactly those principles
How long until the unvaccinated are more than the vaccinated? 18 months?
What happens when they are the majority and ban all vaccines?