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The winter outbreaks in the northern hemisphere seem to disprove these conjectures:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/christmas-cancelled-gi...




They show that the current vaccines lose efficacy after about 6 months (unboosted). The grim calculation remains the same.

Tragically, those most vulnerable were vaccinated first, so lost immunity just as vaccination programs were completed and we opened up.




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