FTA: "Since the technology cannot be un-invented, the book calls on
America to develop and shape the military applications of AI,
rather than surrendering the field to countries that do not
share its values."
The past 60 years have made me skeptical about what those values actually are.
...The recent history of the country bears witness to H Kissinger's values perhaps more than any other person. Unfortunately I don't think 'AGI shouldn't be used against humanity' is in there alongside Realpolitik. If we are safe from AGI it will be because the power majority believes anti-human AGI is ammoral, not because we get it first.
They're expressed in the S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ, etc.
Edit: Going by the rule "your values are demonstrated by what you do, even when it costs you to do that", it's fairly easy to figure out what they are.
Maybe one of the biggest risks of AI is reifying it, or treating it like a real thing. We may romantically desire AI as an agent with independence, but in my view, this is always a serious mistake. “AI thinking” causes executives to treat classes of technology like a magical black box add-on and causes engineers to remove human involvement. So long as human input is required, the intelligence isn’t artificial— and that leads to disasters like Zillow’s AI algorithm.
This is all a matter of design. We shouldn’t try to design artificial Intelligence, we should design intelligent systems (ones that support systemic success and wellbeing). ML, GANs, transformers, bots and other technologies are cool tools. Let’s not fool others or ourselves by calling them AI.
The clear and present danger is the creation of powerful intelligent systems that we can’t control and that decrease overall system success/wellbeing. Like corporations that aren’t beholden to broader societal interests. That’s the real “AI“ challenge we need to address. And, how do we enable the governing systems in our society to act intelligently? We desperately need more functional governance at scale.
Oracular devices are a real thing - you have dimes for a coin toss. Decision making algorithms of scarce transparency do exist. It (the contextual object) is a real thing: AI as an oracular device is a real thing.
> desire AI as an agent with independence
The point is that we do not desire that. It is an agent when entrusted, and it is independent when unchecked, which the black-box nature of some AI technologies can facilitate.
The issue is not with a misunderstanding of the term AI - which we have used for 65 years effortlessly, exactly «that every aspect of learning or any other feature of intelligence can in principle be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it. [...] how to make machines use language, form abstractions and concepts, solve kinds of problems now reserved for humans, and improve themselves» (McCarthy 1955) -, but with its real instances and very real potential adopters.
> the term AI - which we have used for 65 years effortlessly, exactly «that every aspect of learning or any other feature of intelligence can in principle be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it…
Except that AI research rarely tries to replicate how people think; instead, it create systems that mimic the typical outcomes of human effort. The term AI was invented for grant applications. What’s the difference between AI, Automation and Cybernetics?
> Except that AI research rarely tries to replicate how people think
It does not matter (and, literally, «how people think» is not necessarily "intelligence" - a special feature). And, if it «mimic[s] the typical outcomes of human effort», it is still within the broad proposal from McCarthy of «solve kinds of problems now reserved for humans» to substantiate the general idea of an "artificial intelligence", which is literal:
___ there is a phenomenon called 'intelligence': can we replicate it through computing?
The difference between the various areas: if it spawns from some consideration of the phenomenon of intelligence call it AI; if it can manage a process unsupervised call it Automation; if it refines its operation through feedback call it Cybernetics; if it manages a process unsupervised refining its operation through feedback in a system inspired by the phenomenon of intelligence call it Artificially Intelligent Cybernetic Automation - I do not see the problem. "It is not really intelligent": yes, we know. We study intelligence and see where that brings. We have posed a problem ("can we replicate intelligence through computing"), then we reap the outcomes of the effort.
The big issue here is that the "unsupervised" part becomes very risky after the feedback if responsibilities are to it delegated beyond its worth of reliability, which is especially relevant if the """intelligence""" part is oracular, a black box, non-transparent, which is apparently something the authors note on a different perspective as they note that «the algorithm was able to spot aspects of reality that humans had not contemplated, might not be able to detect and may never comprehend».
So, as "the strategist" said, "there are things we know we know, there are things we know we do not know, and there are things we do not know we do not know". We have a better idea of the reliability of a deterministic system; we do not know exactly what specific exceptions to our expectations can be raised by automation through less transparent systems; we know those systems are there for anyone to implement and delegate, and that is a problem.
What you say seems undeniably true, however reifying fundamental concepts lies at or near the core of human natural intelligence. Perhaps more so than logic itself.
Work on AI is basically as old as computing itself (i.e. the pioneers of computing explored from early on connectionist models of computing, neural networks, cellular automata, reinforcement learning, LISP, etc). AI has been evolving for eight decades, vast resources have been channeled into it; and frankly, the successes are striking.
It would be almost impossible for us not to conceive of AI as a “thing.”
It’s not so hard. Just a few years ago, say 2012, it was really unusual for academics in the field of AI to refer to any system as “AI” or “having AI” or “being an AI state.” Why? Because it was disingenuous. But then when IBM Watson was released, the dump trucks of money started showing up, and the self-policing stopped.
Look, I’m not critiquing the field of AI or funding it. Referring to AI research is no problem. My problem comes from naming the outputs of the field “AI.” Because we all know it is a moving target, it doesn’t really mean anything and it confuses non-experts to the point that they make poor decisions.
Sure, but in 2012, AI wasn’t a common subject for laypeople to discuss as non-fiction. Policy makers for decades mostly dismissed AI because of earlier failures to live up to the hype. In 2012, most people didn’t have smartphones in their pocket with “AI processors” capable of 10-30 trillion operations per second. Face, voice, and object recognition, real-time language translation etc weren’t ubiquitous and taken for granted.
As AI becomes increasingly a realistic part of every day life, it necessarily invades language. Historically even words for colors took centuries to enter into common usage in most cultures.
If AI researchers were to stop referring to AI as a whole, and individual AI technologies as “a thing,” it wouldn’t change how the rest of the population talks about AI.
When I entered the field, my mentor said that the first thing to know was that, “Nothing works.” For years, branding something as AI was an invitation to not get funded. I doubt the restraint around the use of the term was entirely altuistic. AI skeptics notwithstanding, the train has left the station and the changing public discourse reflects that reality.
> As AI becomes increasingly a realistic part of every day life, it necessarily invades language.
Like search, recommendation, autopilot, navigation, translation, NPC, deepfake… referring to any of these as “the AI” does no one any favors. All are tools.
But modern decision support systems may make use of AI (of the results of research under he umbrella of AI - in short, "AI". It is not necessary to have the bunny quotes of figurative speech everywhere, they should be understood even when inexplicit but clear). And AI in DSS increases the underlying problems.
I think it's just a matter of the penny dropping. When self-driving cars aren't here over the next few years; and when more big biz tries and fails with 'AI' -- we will enter another winter.
I have to say it will be schadenfreude from me -- given the absolutely reckless behaviour of the army of grant-chasing academics happy to inflate the bubble. When that funding suddenly disappears, it'll be there own fault.
As skeptical as I am of the AGI and even full self-driving, successes like AlphaGo, AlphaFold 2, and Deepfakery from video to voice all demonstrate the technology can do things we never really could do before.
But in all of those cases humans are in the loop to either build the system at scale or to keep it from going off the rails in production. I see much more of that in the next decade. And I don't think there's going to be an AI winter but I do hope there's a reckoning for all the snake oilers of AI out there. I mean they're the same people who snake oil for crypto too, and they're just getting their game on for snake oiling the metaverse.
Maybe that will happen for AI VC, but as someone else said, VC is where good ideas go to die.
> successes like AlphaGo, AlphaFold 2, and Deepfakery from video to voice all demonstrate the technology can do things we never really could do before.
Good grief, I hope so! After all that money! If no-one had come up with anything they could hype out the ears, the train would have stopped years ago.
The problem isn't toy inventions, it's making a significant positive impact on the world as a whole. Generalisability and efficiency of deployment, creating benefits for billions of households.
Lithium-chemistry batteries are having a net positive effect. AI seems to be a net negative, the way it's been used in Facebook and YouTube. Deepfakery is unambiguously a negative.
The jury is still out on Alphafold 2. The default expectation would be that it's like Watson as used in medical diagnosis. There wasn't much 'there' there.
Are you kidding me about AlphaFold 2? That was the solution to a 50-year mystery in science and there's going to be a Nobel prize in it somewhere.
That would be like finding a grand unified theory in physics. No big deal there amIRight?
But your skepticism is great. More opportunities for those of us who actually get what it achieved and are looking to extend it to more practical domains beyond protein structure prediction (which is already huge). And kudos to Deepmind for open sourcing it even though they did their usual trick with the training data and recipe and left it to you to implement.
Deepfakery is going to be great when I can do things like make a new season of classic Star Trek with a bunch of amateur voice talent and it looks like the original show. Maybe even use some of the season 4 pitches that were never made. I never got why none of the original silicon valley billionaires didn't pay whatever it took to make this happen while the original cast was still alive. But now you no longer need to be a billionaire...
Good points, but it should also be noted that humans also often rely on other humans supporting, assisting, and training / coaching them in order to perform at peak levels.
Pre-Neolithic humans while biologically considered modern, lacked many of the expressed cognitive capabilities we now demand nascent AI systems to exhibit.
Self-hosting AI capabilities may come at some point in the future, long after these human bootstrapped and maintained systems have proven their commercial worth.
Imagine letting gtp3 loose on to the worldwide comment sections.
It has the ability to defeat any captcha, it can write well enough to waste peoples time, and it could push any agenda.
I think when such a weapon is released, there will be nothing mere mortal web owners will be able to do, since there is no digital identity that couldn’t be spoofed by it.
You deeply deeply deeply overestimate these models but I also give up trying to make that point. Go ahead and unleash all this fear uncertainty and doubt and see how that goes. It's tiring even to read this nonsense.
There is nothing these language models can do that isn't already being achieved by an entire planet of mechanical turks with nothing better to do. But they do so with a much better carbon footprint.
There will be plenty of tools for motivated mere mortal web owners. Most of them involves various ways of saying no to uncurated content. But it's more fun to talk about the near-term AGI and the imaginary threat it poses. Who doesn't love a good Boogeyman story?
I heard Schmidt on a couple podcasts[1][2] recently promoting this book, and I found them to be useful for understanding how AI is being discussed among the political and leadership class. I was surprised to see all the negativity here - I thought he made some interesting points, and I appreciated getting some insight into how decision-makers are thinking about this in terms of regulation and geopolitical risks.
I understand the points being made, it's just not what I choose to focus on in the very limited time I'm going to spend engaging with this material. The purpose of my comment was to let any other tech-focused visitors to this site know that I did find some value on the periphery of this book, in case they are equally uninterested in hearing everyone's hot takes on a 98 year old who's already had books written about his life's negative impacts.
Forgive me for not thinking that some unflattering books are a suitable consequence for the "negative impacts" that Kissinger has had on millions of people across the globe
You could say that about a lot of US officials. This obsession with Kissinger is amazing. Do we plan to indict Gorbachev for the Afghanistan invasion ?
At least Andrzej Rosiewicz gave Gorbachev the credit he deserves by performing "Wieje wiosna od wschodu" in front of Mikhail and Raisa Gorbachev in 1988, a song which Nina Hagen also performed a rapping cover of, which is far better than any song ever written about Henry Kissinger:
Agree that the obsession with Kissinger is quite funny. He's not even in the top 10 of my personal villains for US foreign policy, but he never led (or commanded someone else who led) an army and can't be guilty of any warcrimes.
He is a state department hack who has a talent for self-promotion as a "grand strategist" even though there is very little that he was responsible for setting in motion, and much of what he worked on was either irrelevant or ended up getting botched. He did, however, claim many foreign policy victories during a time period when U.S. foreign policy was particularly incoherent and schizophrenic, with America often being on both sides of a given conflict as the various organs of US foreign policy fought with each other and coordinated badly.
One can argue that the visit to China was legit his. Pretty much everything else is clearly P.R. and taking credit for the work of others in order to make a name for himself and pad his enormous consulting fees. IIRC, Kissinger and Associates - his private gig to cash in on his grand expertise - now focuses on doing lobbying for China.
Really Kissinger's main crime was "supporting" various wars or coups, which basically every secretary of state does, since there is no war or coup in which the US isn't supporting one side over another. However our actual ability to force coups is quite limited, take for example our repeated attempts to overthrow tiny Nicaragua or Cuba - here with substantial military aid and funds and even some irregular forces, continued for over a decade, yet we were stimied by these tiny nations.
So people see this obvious impotence, build a mental wall around it, and then just assume that everything else that happens in the world is the result of the CIA pulling the strings on direct orders from people like Kissinger - who is the puppet master of the third world.
This ... is not good history.
US power has always been primarily soft power -- cultural and economic power. We can threaten to cut off aid, impose sanctions, pay bribes, etc. But most coups that that are "US backed" would have succeeded with no actual backing, and often the backing consisted of side payments and giving a greenlight to not impose sanctions on the coup plotters. This was actually what Hussein claimed, that he was given a green light by Rumsfeld. It's only for truly weak and unpopular regimes, or states undergoing existing legitimacy crises, that foreign meddling can be a difference maker.
Meanwhile, those times when the U.S. actually launches invasions of places -- Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo/Serbia, etc. are somehow discounted. Yeah, Kissinger backed violent groups and lobbied to funnel financial and military aid to places that should not have received it, but at the same time he didn't actually lie us into wars, unlike Powell or Albright or even Dean Rusk. IMO these three have much higher body counts, and we are just talking about the post 1960 period in US diplomacy, and haven't even touched things like the Mexican-American war or adventurism or "felling trees and indians". It's just bizarre how much focus Kissinger has gotten, and I really do attribute it to self-promotion.
I refuse to read any books written by people that eat meat. Killing living things is a crime, and supporting the industries involved in that is immoral.
Because this is the HN crowd, I cannot tell if you're serious ("not only do I not support war criminals, I don't support animal murderers") or being snarky. If you're serious, you should also stop using software written by meat eaters, that way none of us sane folks have to read your comments.
I really do believe eating meat is wrong. I don't decide what books to read based on my personal ethical beliefs, especially when it has nothing to do with the subject at hand.
Sorry for the subtlety, I'll remind myself of readers like you in the future.
I apologize as well for the invective tone; I was a little cranky earlier in the day when I responded to this. I have no problem with your beliefs re: meat, the subtlety did indeed go over my head, and this just seems like a textbook case of textual communication fundamentally dampening nuance.
Sometimes I find myself reacting sharply to things in a way that I'd rather not, which I did in this case. My stance on animal rights is an easy button to push to get a majority riled up, and I regretfully reach for it in my worst moments. I was also feeling cranky this morning haha
Seriously, thanks for taking the time to come back to this. You made my night better.
does that all mean that Eric Schmidt is running for office, or is he trying to get into a position of political influence with the Biden administration? (i mean, is it possible that he is using his book as a platform in this effort?)
Well, Biden is trying to improve relations with China and Kissinger is seen as a big friend of China, and he claims to have some influence with the top brass there (China made a big turn towards the west, and Kissingers meetings with Zhou Enlai played some role in it - Mao shaking hands with Nixon was a very big deal in 1971), so there is some alignment ; on the other hand you have a point, Democrats seem to have a very strong negative reaction towards Kissinger.
Really hard to believe that a CEO of a company with the motto "don't be evil" could write a book with Kissinger. It's unsurprising that the book's main push seems to be for more AI war research as a method of saving lives.
Erik Schmidt and Sergey Brin are all part of the surveillance state and war machine. They will soon be awarded Nobel Prizes like the war criminal Henry Kissinger.
The book was pretty thorough, but not thorough enough. It failed to cover how much he intervened in US politics to cover for, enable, and protect a military dictatorship that was carrying out a massive political cleansing in Argentina, in which over 30,000 people were "disappeared". He's about as evil as they come.
Not really that hard to believe, considering where the "don't be evil" company got part of its initial funding from [0] and what these funding outfits have been up to themselves since then [1].
Weaponizing AI on the face of it seems completely insane. The problem is that if we don’t, then we would presumably be at a tremendous strategic disadvantage to an adversary which did (more or less the logic that led to the development and proliferation of nuclear weapons).
I can’t see how militarized forms of AI don’t emerge as a consequence of significant progress in non-military AI, so perhaps all roads do eventually lead to SkyNet.
Great. Another reference to Skynet as the inevitable outcome of advancing automation. Despite all the facts to the contrary.
Will technology, including AI, inevitability be used to improve weaponry? Yes. Will AI inevitably lead to Skynet and Terminator robots? Hardly.
Today we can't build a self-driving car with more than level 2 autonomy, nor do honest experts believe one will happen soon. Today's autonomous mobile robots are incapable of even the most rudimentary human motions, and likewise, human-level robots are invisible on any 50 year time horizon, commercially or militarily. No AI-based tech has shown even the faintest sign of the level of AGI capabilities needed to control a robot army. Nor has any AI shown the potential for an emergent executive function or a desire to KILL ALL HUMANS.
To assume that present-day AI will likely self-assemble into a rebel robot army intent on destroying humanity… Why does anybody take this crap seriously? Or soberly reference it while hoping to be taken seriously?
It's time for all adults everywhere to stop imagining that pop scifi movies are a sensible foundation toward discussing how new tech can best serve its intended purpose. Scifi is meant to entertain, not inform. Given what we know today about AI, Skynet doesn't have a hope in hell in happening — not in terms of platform mobility nor in terms of cognition nor in terms of self-assembly. So PLEASE give all references to Skynet a rest.
Terminator style robots would be a pretty inefficient way to wipe out humanity.
Wrt motive, I would assume that if we are someday killed off by our own machines, it will most likely be something akin to an accidental nuclear holocaust.
>more or less the logic that led to the development and proliferation of nuclear weapons
Sure. One country threw a ton of resources into a program, and as a result the technology spread to numerous other countries leading to something like seven countries capable of destroying the world.
Maybe the end result is inevitable. Racing towards it so we can kill others before they can kill us isn't smart.
Obviously, it’s a terrible idea! Unfortunately, every nation or deeply resourced actor exercising complete restraint forever is probably not a Nash Equillibrium.
In principle we'd be happy to rename it for you, but you've also been posting a lot of comments that go against the site guidelines, so we'd need some reason to believe that the account would also behave differently under a different name.
[...]
Me an me girl name Jane
Dang dang
Didi bong gong
Gidi bong gong
Gidi men
Bena bena bohoi
Spen dem dem
Gena men
Bong gong
Gidi bong gong
Gidi bong gong
Gidi ben
Bena bena bohoi
Gen gen
Gena men-den
Down dere in the ghetto I go, where tribulation I once know
Mummy an daddy, all a' we so poor,
We all had to sleep on the floor
Storm it come and it blow down me door,
Me ha fi nail up me window
Me shoes tear up, me toe just a show,
Me nuh know a where fi really wan' go
Mama tell me "nah rob drug store,
Police beat yuh, mek yu back sore"
Dang dang
Didi dang dang
Gidi bang gang
Gidi men
Bena bohoi
Bene bi deberen ehya
What is about? How to overthrow democracies, and prolong the Vietnam by years in order to undermine your opponent's POTUS bid... But this time using AI?
Maybe how to select which terrorist group to give weapons to?
Exactly that - also considering implicitly that humans can make literally questionable decisions - to automate them decisions outside human consideration is probably not a good idea.
Ah, Henry Kissinger, wouldn't trust someone who backed a fraudster (theranos) and enabled her to scam even more people. Maybe his judgment isn't what it used to be.
> how you get to be "America's preeminent living statesman"
Mostly by having been in the room during historical decisions, getting old, and refusing to ever go away even when your contributions proved to be disastrous.
Kissinger's plan to bomb rice production in Cambodia not only failed to stop the North Vietnamese, but directly lead to the rise of Pol Pot. It also starved millions of civilians. The guy is a monster.
The ongoing Holmes trial revealed all kinds of celebrity and private equity investors were snookered. Retired politicians are eager to jump onto the Silicon Valley gravy train as directors. George Bush Sr made a killing participating in the Global Crossing fiber cable venture.
"""
Computers and nuclear weapons
In 2019, Kissinger wrote about the increasing tendency to give control of nuclear weapons to computers operating with Artificial Intelligence (AI) that: "Adversaries' ignorance of AI-developed configurations will become a strategic advantage".[195] Kissinger argued that giving power to launch nuclear weapons to computers using algorithms to make decisions would eliminate the human factor and give the advantage to the state that had the most effective AI system as a computer can make decisions about war and peace far faster than any human ever could.[195] Just as an AI-enhanced computer can win chess games by anticipating human decision-making, an AI-enhanced computer could be useful in a crisis as in a nuclear war, the side that strikes first would have the advantage by destroying the opponent's nuclear capacity. Kissinger also noted there was always the danger that a computer would make a decision to start a nuclear war that before diplomacy had been exhausted or the algorithm controlling the AI might make a decision to start a nuclear war that would be not understandable to the operators.[196] Kissinger also warned the use of AI to control nuclear weapons would impose "opacity" on the decision-making process as the algorithms that control the AI system are not readily understandable, destabilizing the decision-making process:
... grand strategy requires an understanding of the capabilities and military deployments of potential adversaries. But if more and more intelligence becomes opaque, how will policy makers understand the views and abilities of their adversaries and perhaps even allies? Will many different internets emerge or, in the end, only one? What will be the implications for cooperation? For confrontation? As AI becomes ubiquitous, new concepts for its security need to emerge.[196]
The two younger authors had a webinar about this book at the Computer History Museum earlier this week. (I presume Henry at the ripe age of 98 cant easily participate in panels anymore. Though Henry showed up at Stanford Memorial Church in August to speak at successor George Schultz's memorial.) The CHM webinar might be archived online.
I am still waiting for a copy of the book. But I am under the impression Henry is providing the long view of history: how industrialization and tech shaped modern nations, with A.I. in particular. This theme has appeared in earlier Kissinger books.
P.S. Kissinger has yet another book coming out in 2022 on Leadership.
I heard Schmidt talking about the book in podcasts, and from what i understand he bases his view of the success of NLP models like GPT*. I think this is sorely misguided, as nothing suggests that these models, which can generate readable text, are any form of intelligent or have any kind of agency. Nothing in the structure of a transformer indicates an ability for such things. GTPs seem to be more like a "central pattern generator" for language, like the neural circuits that make patterns like walking possible. The arguments weren't convincing and imho lacked insight beyond cheap fearmongering.
Are you stating that the issue Schmidt notes is that of the dangers of systems that "may approach intelligence"? Because it seemed that the issue remains with the dangers of systems that do not "approach intelligence" to decent and reliable degree.
1) Giant 'please subscribe' banner, similar button top right. But I am a subscriber already, and I have to search around to be able to log in
2) in 2021 what login box is still being undone by a space at the end of an email address? Really? Mobile devices often add spaces, can we not deal with that?
> “Whether we consider it a tool, a partner, or a rival, [ai] will alter our experience as reasoning beings and permanently change our relationship with reality,” the authors write. “The result will be a new epoch.” If uttered by a Soylent-quaffing coder, that sentiment might be dismissed as hyperbole. Coming from authors of this pedigree, it ought to be taken seriously.
Predicting how AI will affect society’s sense of reality is best left to politicians and CEOs (or CS department heads)? They’re making a psychological/sociological claim here, not a business, political, or technical one. Are they qualified to predict what society will use as a basis for reality? Also they have plenty to gain by this agenda being believed (maybe not Henry I dunno).
Following the article, the scope is probably specific: they raise the problem of "transparency" ("how and why does the black box indicate this solution") as primary, especially in the context of policies and reaction. Decisions (long and short term) have been up to now taken as the result of a discussion between human minds. What happens if black boxes are now entrusted?
Results of the application of AI in the medical field suggest its increased adoption in other sectors, but the special quality of these outputs are in that they are surprising and obscure (as opposed to, notably, teaching new abilities). The possibility of application of these technologies - possibility called a certainty by the author, authoritative in his field - to matters of national security, defence, strategy and tactics, is surely a problem. What is proposed and encouraged is that countries with values consistent with those of the authors gain an advantage (to counter automated "psychopath" decisions).
--
From the interview documentary The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara: McNamara met Fidel Castro years after the crisis, and Castro declared never having had issues with taking actions which could have caused the utter annihilation of Cuba. To the utter bewilderment of McNamara. This could represent an example of «values consistent with those of the authors».
I don’t think they wrote this book to push an agenda for personal gain. It seems like a standard, reasonable caution of what could come to pass from irresponsible use of AI. And they are actually more qualified than the usual crowd warning of these risks.
I would agree that these authors are speaking to a different audience and a different purpose than most authors of pop sci books. I think they want to reach political leaders, businessmen, and regulators to forewarn of the many impacts of adopting deep learning-based “AI” in mainstream commercial, government, and military services. And likely, disruptive impacts, due to the sudden and deep shifts in the status quo that will surely result.
Unlike most books to date, this book about AI is not intended for technologists or tech fanboys. When the three authors are the CEO that oversaw the growth of a now-trillion dollar behemoth high tech corporation, and the singly most experienced political counselor of hundreds of world leaders and staffs for the past 50 years, and the Dean of MIT's school of computing — they hope their collective gravitas will speak to a more sober and authoritative audience than prior books on AI.
Kissinger's "World Order" (2014) is much, much better for anyone interested in how the internet will shape the future of governments. 10/10 do recommend.
This book ("The Age of AI", Kissinger, 2021) is as good as a Business Insider article written by a European regulator. Read "World Order" instead! Whatever you think of Kissinger, I guarantee you'll learn something from his 2014 book.
Based on this article I see nothing new idea wise, but the reputation of the authors hopefully encourages policy makers to take AI risks seriously.
As the second to last paragraph points out, the book doesn’t delve into some modern day controversies to make its points. The pros being the ideas might be spread further, maybe even to China. The cons being the book isn’t as timely and impactful as it could be. It seems like a good trade off to me.
To me, the real proof that AI cab be an existential threat would be that it can predict the weather to a very good degree. If an AI can handle the complexity at that level, it is definately a force to reckon with. So far the progress has been impressive?
Following the article, AI can become an existential threat if empowered humans which cannot "«predict the weather to a very good degree»" in turn empower AI, which may decide unchecked something along the lines of "to be accurate about predicting the weather a nuclear holocaust could be a good move" (very stretched image for rhetoric purpose).
More literally: what happens if, for example, weapons systems are automated by black boxes? So-called "expert systems", for example, remaining within automation, can be instructed more clearly, explicitly, deterministically, about values and boundaries. That the results of "black box decision systems" can be surprising is also a risk.
My expression fell under the vibes of the more generic "paperclip maximizer argument" because I wanted to remain faithful to the "weather" idea, but could not get a better image.
Nonetheless, the details of the "paperclip maximizer argument" are valid, though not primary, for the real point: AI applied to strategy, tactics, defence and weapon management can suffer from the "Orthogonality thesis" (the decision may be out of a process unaware of human values) and "Instrumental convergence" (the decision may be out of a process unaware of its legitimate boundaries).
The primary point remains "You do not put an "enfant prodige" in charge of systems with overextensive consequences".
I just wanted to state how annoying it is that Kissinger is still alive… it’s like some of the worst parts of the 20th Century still laughing in the face of humanism.
> Henry Kissinger, America’s pre-eminent living statesman
Henry Kissinger is a war criminal. That doesn't mean he can't write interesting books (and his intelligence & experience are obviously immense) but it does mean he doesn't deserve that kind of flattery and respect.
Ok, but please don't take HN threads on extremely predictable flamewar tangents. It leads to extremely predictable flamewars. We don't want those here. No, that's not a defense of war criminals. We're just trying to have an internet forum that doesn't suck (to the extent possible), and that means responding to the most interesting things in an article, not the most obvious provocation.
Was this a flame "war"? It seems most (or all) comments are in agreement, that the deference of the Economist towards Kissinger is a little over the top. That was only my point.
It's sort of astounding that people can be hounded out of their jobs for dumb tweets or playing dress-up the wrong way years ago (unless you are the PM of Canada I guess), but if you're responsible for the deaths of thousands of people and billions of dollars stolen and funneled into war and energy industries, that's cool you might be a little on the nose for a few years then you'll be welcomed back into the fold. Not that I'm saying bigoted tweets or blackface okay, let me stress.
I noticed George W Bush started being celebrated again in the past few years. And Obama has never stopped being a darling! Just astounding. Guess the whole Libya, Syria, Yemen, etc stuff were just little whoopsies. We really dance to their tune, don't we?
Bigoted tweets or blackface matter more to US society than Libya, Syria, and Yemen combined.
Foreign policy/tragedy simply just does not matter to US citizens, US culture, or US media for various reasons independent of any moral failings, or gullibility (though that certainly does help things along).
The media has, for almost a decade, tried to play George Bush and his cabinet out to be "principled, simple conservatives", and it seems to be working. I can't believe that some of the people most critical of Bush, Cheney and the wars they profited from, were swayed by him painting dogs of all things.
“ According to historian and Kissinger biographer Niall Ferguson, however, accusing Kissinger alone of war crimes "requires a double standard" because "nearly all the secretaries of state ... and nearly all the presidents" have taken similar actions. But Ferguson continues "this is not to say that it's all OK."”
>Indeed, Kissinger's quote is found on pg. 194 of Woodward/Bernstein book The Final Days, which is considered a notable secondary source. However, the quote in the book is in a section highlighting Kissinger's difficult, and often abusive, relationship with White House staff. The specific context is the contentious relationship with Alexander Haig, Kissinger's military aide - the quote is given as a demonstration of how Kissinger allegedly taunted and belittled Haig. Woodward/Bernstein do NOT use the quote as any kind of authentic evidence that Kissinger hated the military, or that this was an opinion that formed any of Kissinger's foreign policy decisions. By placing the quote in that section, WE'RE (Wikipedia and NOT Woodward/Bernstein) attempting to make the connection and asserting this was Kissinger's attitude in approaching foreign policy. That connection is NOT supported by the source so it's not acceptable in a biography of a living person.EBY (talk) 09:13, 25 May 2013 (UTC)
>I accept your rationale. There is nowhere else to put it unless I start a new section but I won't because it would be vexatious to do so simply to accommodate the quote. Sqgl (talk) 16:06, 25 May 2013 (UTC)sqgl
>>It's tough because this kind of inflammatory quote IS indicative of one of the prominent aspects of Kissinger's personality, which is why Woodward/Bernstein included it in their book. But as you say, I don't see a place to integrate it that wouldn't blow the B:LP hatch. EBY (talk) 16:25, 25 May 2013 (UTC)
>He might shoot his mouth off more than others, and he may even be more guilty than others (Hitchens certainly thinks so, as noted), but realpolitik is ugly and examples of it as revealed in CableGate are educational. The reason the leaks were sensational is because so many are in denial of realpolitik and those in power want to keep it that way. Personally Obama reminds me of Gus from Breaking Bad so don't think I am being partisan here.Sqgl (talk) 18:17, 25 May 2013 (UTC)sqgl
>>I agree that examples are educational. Which makes me wonder about articles and even venues outside the WikiWorld that could advance that knowledge. EBY (talk) 18:22, 25 May 2013 (UTC)
>I here what you are saying and defer to your experience on this site.Sqgl (talk) 18:28, 25 May 2013 (UTC)sqgl
>[From a public interview on June 11, 2004.] On May 27, the New York Times published one of the most incredible sentences I’ve ever seen. They ran an article about the Nixon–Kissinger interchanges. Kissinger fought very hard through the courts to try to prevent it, but the courts permitted it. You read through it, and you see the following statement embedded in it. Nixon at one point informs Kissinger, his right-hand Eichmann, that he wanted bombing of Cambodia.
>And Kissinger loyally transmits the order to the Pentagon to carry out "a massive bombing campaign in Cambodia. Anything that flies on anything that moves."
>That is the most explicit call for what we call genocide when other people do it that I’ve ever seen in the historical record. Right at this moment there is a prosecution of Milošević going on in the international tribunal, and the prosecutors are kind of hampered because they can’t find direct orders, or a direct connection even, linking Milošević to any atrocities on the ground. Suppose they found a statement like this. Suppose a document came out from Milošević saying, "Reduce Kosovo to rubble. Anything that flies on anything that moves." They would be overjoyed. The trial would be over. He would be sent away for multiple life sentences—if it was a U.S. trial, immediately the electric chair. ~ Noam Chomsky —Preceding unsigned comment added by Dsnow75 (talk • contribs) 09:45, 24 December 2008 (UTC)
> Please realize that if you're famous like Henry Kissinger you pay people to scrub your wikipedia page.
[Citation needed]
More specifically, if you make a claim like this, please link to an edit where it happened. The entire revision history is in the public record.
I am not saying I disagree with you. I'm no Kissinger fan. But your argument will be much stronger if you provide hard facts, not just an unsubstantiated claim.
>The Kissinger page reads like a paid publicity brochure. Any attempt to correct the record with verifiable sources is swiftly deleted unilaterally by TheTimeAreChanging. Here is a paragraph that I inserted (with sources) at the beginning that TheTimesAreAChanging deleted. If this keeps occurring, I plan to escalate this to Wikipedia.
>"Kissinger's legacy, including the Nobel Prize Award, remains controversial. [2] Critics point to Kissinger's role in overthrowing the democratically elected Allende government in Chile;[3]; his knowledge and possible abetment of Project Condor, a program of repression and political assassination carried out by Chile, Argentina and Uruguay;[4] and his support of the Pakistani army during its slaughter of Bengalis in 1971[5] . — Preceding unsigned comment added by Malpaso (talk • contribs) 11:31, 5 August 2014 (UTC) "
>>You can't use other Wikipedia articles as a source, and your other sources are poor. This material is covered in depth in the article itself, so repeated attempts to insert POV language about the "slaughter of Bengalis" and some such to the lead can only be seen as POV-pushing on a BLP.TheTimesAreAChanging (talk) 16:33, 5 August 2014 (UTC)
>I don't use Wikipedia as a source. Since when is Time Magazine or the National Security Archives poor sources? I will continue make these edits and not be bullied. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Malpaso (talk • contribs) 17:59, 5 August 2014 (UTC)
>"slaughter of Bengalis" is not POV language. Do you dispute it occurred? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Malpaso (talk • contribs) 18:36, 5 August 2014 (UTC)
>>"Slaughter of Bengalis" would undoubtably be a WP:NPOV violation, even if it the reliable sorces. Try again, if you wish to do so within Wikipedia policies. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 19:17, 6 December 2014 (UTC)
>>>I don't get it. In the article on Irving Berlin, it states Nicholas II, the new Tsar of Russia, notes Whitcomb, had revived with utmost brutality the anti-Jewish pogroms, which created the spontaneous mass exodus to America. Such words are very strong, but they are generally accepted by reasonable people as the only correct way to describe pogroms. Is there something different about Bengalis, or Kissinger, that makes it biased to call it "slaughter of Bengalis", even with reliable sources?
178.38.168.13 (talk) 02:14, 16 May 2015 (UTC)
>I can confirm Malpaso's claim that the editor known as TheTimesAreAChanging is making tendentious editorial decisions, deleting criticisms of Kissinger on the basis that they come from bad sources. Among the sources he has rubbished are CNN and Christopher Hitchens. I have tried to add to the article lead a statement that several groups and individuals, from Hitchens to Code Pink, have tried to indict Kissinger for war crimes. TheTimesAreAChanging has deleted these on the basis that they are "just opinion", while having no problem with those opinions that praise Kissinger. I have tried to initiate a discussion with TheTimesAreChanging on his talk page, but he seems uninterested in justifying his actions. G.S.Bhogal (talk) 16:44, 14 December 2015 (UTC)
>>Code Pink? Are you serious? I am no great fan of Kissinger, but you seem to lack an elementary understanding of the relevant Wikipedia policies, e.g. WP:BLP.TheTimesAreAChanging (talk) 17:20, 14 December 2015 (UTC)
>Third Opinion
>A third opinion has been requested, but it isn't clear what the question is, because the above discussion has not been civil. It also isn't clear whether a third opinion is applicable, because more than two editors are edit-warring the page. Please state a concise and civil question and I will try to answer. Robert McClenon (talk) 20:19, 14 December 2015 (UTC)
>The article as written is propaganda, not necessarily by the editor's design, but by the favoritism applied to official reports of Kissinger's career and the failure to credit any of the subsequent investigative journalism that has proven persistently over the decades how a legend of diplomatic genius conceals intrigue, bloodletting, and a willingness to dispense with democracy. Macdust (talk) 18:03, 13 February 2016 (UTC)
>From the beginning there are two Henry Kissingers being presented in alternation: the effective Kissinger presented over the years in official reports, his own writings, and derivative news stories, and the Kissinger held to account for political injustices, covert military and intelligence actions, and the suffering and casualties occurring as a consequence.
>So we have Kissinger the icon, then a passage of what appears to be mud thrown at him, then Kissinger the schoolboy, then the icon suffering more mudslinging, until by the end of the story all the international catastrophes sound like sour grapes.
>Unless the article starts straightaway with a crisp discussion of Realpolitik, there is no context for understanding and evaluating what Kissinger thought he was doing or at least wanted others to think he was doing while acquiring and exercising immense power. Realpolitik holds the context where great international achievements and calamitous results make sense side by side. It is a much clearer lead-in for researchers making a first serious inquiry.
>(The non-career biography should in this instance be pushed toward the end of the article. Placed at the end, it is illuminating and humanizing. Placed where it is, it magnifies the incoherence.)Macdust (talk) 01:14, 15 February 2016 (UTC)
>>Kissinger is not a philosopher, nor does the concept of "Realpolitik" set Kissinger apart from other men in positions of power. Kissinger did what he felt he had to do to maintain the US as the dominant player in the world and to increase his own influence in the country. I guess you can call it Realpolitk - or you know just politics, Cold War politics if you want to be more specific.Guccisamsclub (talk) 19:44, 15 February 2016 (UTC)
This view oversimplifies the situation. You have to consider the magnitude of the crimes, not simply a binary did they/didn't they situation. By this measure Secretary Kissinger deserves all of the scorn he receives.
And Schmidt is a sociopath entirely devoid of any moral compass.
Some anecdotes: on privacy, Schmidt famously said "if you have something that you don't want anyone to know, maybe you shouldn't be doing it in the first place". So CNET reporters published some of his personal information found through Google searches to demonstrate the need for privacy that he was denying to us peasants. Instead of reconsidering his position, he blacklisted CNET from speaking to Google.
In 2017 a think tank working on tech praised the European Commission's legal decision to fine Google for abusing its market power. Schmidt used his personal influence to have the author of the report fired from the think tank.
See also Assange's report: "Schmidt's world view equates progress with the geographic expansion of Google, supported by the US State Department – technocratic imperialism."
On tax, Schmidt has claimed that Google's tax avoidance is "capitalism" and that he is "very proud of it".
A personal anecdote: I remember Schmidt starting a conversation with a room of people barely making a living by discussing his latest vacation in the Caribbeans and how big his yacht was. He did not even consider that this could be perceived as rude or obscene. It was painfully obvious that to him these extreme levels of inequality are natural and perfectly justified, with himself on the right side of course.
He considers himself very bright. There is some evidence that he his slightly above average. But if you look at some of his strategic decisions, politically before Trump he bet all in on Clinton, positioning Alphabet very close to the Democrats. To a technocrat like him Clinton's victory was obvious. Of course he got things entirely wrong and completely missed the Trump populist backlash, which put Alphabet in a very difficult position politically for several years.
Schmidt is the embodiment of the modern technocratic elite, respects only power and money, complete spite and disregard for common people, entirely alien to the mere concept of common good or actual democracy, and absolute confidence that today's inequalities are perfectly natural, despite his own position being much more a consequence of his sociopathic tendencies than of his slightly above average skills, praising capitalism and liberalism while he got rich and powerful largely through monopolistic market dominance.
Of all the dim technocratic billionaires that pass for our so-called elite today, he is the one I despise the most.
Please don't create accounts to break HN's guidelines. It will eventually get your main account banned as well.
I'm not saying you owe billionaires better, but you owe this community better if you're participating in it. Internet psychiatric diagnosis and personal attack rants, for example, don't belong here.
I mean, so is Nelson Mandela if you apply the same standard (terrorism targeting civilians by the ANC).
How it seems to work is if said person aligns with your own political views (i.e. the ends justifies the mean) then war crime are conveniently overlooked.
> I mean, so is Nelson Mandela if you apply the same standard (terrorism targeting civilians by the ANC).
It also requires equating the ANC with the uMkhonto we Sizwe [0], making wrong claims about their targeting, and embezzling how the creation of the uMkhonto we Sizwe was a direct reaction to getting massacred when initially attempting peaceful, non-violent, protest [1].
Not to mention how the US's role in Cambodia is in not at all analogous with the role of the AMC in Apartheid Africa. Even attempting this comparison, to argue for some kind or ethical nihilism, is something very weird to do.
Partly, but also the vastly different power dynamics of these situations. To most honest observers there usually is a side here fighting for a more "humane" cause, like opposing their own enslavement, or opposing the colonialization of their country by another for some semi-enslavement.
Wouldn't you agree these are generally "good" causes, unless you are the aggressor in that situation?
The inherent asymmetry of these conflicts, particularly in military power, leaves the "insurgent" side usually not much more choice than use cruder weapons and go for targets of opportunity that may involve a higher risk of civilian collateral.
Which is not a new dynamic, it's a very old dynamic that many militaries throughout history had to deal with when occupying populated territories hostile to them.
The past 60 years have made me skeptical about what those values actually are.