Programming is becoming more complicated over time. The increase in complexity will offset the increased availability of basic literacy. We see this in Law as well. Though most people can read and write the language of Law, they do not understand the implications of what they read and would write. Similarly, though someone may read and write code, they may not understand the implications of what they do. Same for scriptwriters or novelists.
Programming is as singular a profession as "writing" is a singular profession; instead of the future you seem to imagine, I foresee something else entirely.
Just as there are lawyers, scriptwriters, journalists, novelists, biographers, bloggers and tweeters, so too will there be an increased societal understanding of the differentiation already happening within code-writing. Embedded, Systems, Application, UX.
Further, programming (like law) is a profession whose mastery requires an understanding of an ever-increasingly complicated system. While there is a glut of fresh law grads, there is also high demand for lawyers with niche skill sets.
In short, yes. Low-end programmers will continue to get paid less but high-end programmers will probably get paid more, and there will be more of them, but not as a percentage of all programmers (but as a percentage of the population as a whole.) Also, more people will program as an adjunct to their existing responsibilities.
Programming is becoming more complicated over time. The increase in complexity will offset the increased availability of basic literacy
Is it? Python will do in a few lines what would take forty lines in Fortran. I was programming for the Mac in 1995, when you'd spend thousands of lines just trying to get the machine to do things which a new Xcode project now does by default without any lines of code.
No doubt Python is more expressive than Fortran. Programming languages, tools, and software engineering has gotten better.
If we were write the same software as 30 years ago, it would be an easier job. But we aren't. We have more powerful processors, more memory, more data and more connectivity. The kind of software that is in demand now is more complex than the software from 30 years ago.
People develop to the limits of their technologies and their own ability. Smarter technologies allow us to make much more complex apps, which require more effort. I don't have to create my own windowing framework anymore, but that doesn't mean I'm not still working to the limits of my ability 20 years later.
Programming is as singular a profession as "writing" is a singular profession; instead of the future you seem to imagine, I foresee something else entirely.
Just as there are lawyers, scriptwriters, journalists, novelists, biographers, bloggers and tweeters, so too will there be an increased societal understanding of the differentiation already happening within code-writing. Embedded, Systems, Application, UX.
Further, programming (like law) is a profession whose mastery requires an understanding of an ever-increasingly complicated system. While there is a glut of fresh law grads, there is also high demand for lawyers with niche skill sets.
In short, yes. Low-end programmers will continue to get paid less but high-end programmers will probably get paid more, and there will be more of them, but not as a percentage of all programmers (but as a percentage of the population as a whole.) Also, more people will program as an adjunct to their existing responsibilities.