"As I write this, I’m sitting in a cafe. Around me, there are five people on laptops — four of them are MacBooks. Four other people are using tablets — all four are iPads. Welcome to the Post-PC world."
Also you live in San Francisco, I'm sitting in a cafe in Florida, and we got 2 macs (me (developer) and another guy that is a designer apparently) and 10 PC, welcome back to the PC era.
Siegler exemplifies the syndrome that nearly all the high profile tech journalists have sealed themselves into an Apple-centric tech-bubble in San Francisco / bay area. There was a TWiT episode a week or two ago where every single panelist confessed to exclusively using an iPhone and Mac, some having not touched a PC in years ... yet here they were trying to sound informative on Android and Windows, the actual dominant technologies in "reality". They've basically dealt themselves out of being able to be informed and balanced on tech topics by refusing to use anything not made by Apple and now don't even understand when people accuse them of being unbalanced.
It all depends which part of "reality" you focus on. I doubt that Windows is dominant anywhere where interesting stuff happens: be it HN, or developers' conference (save for .NET).
As for balance: this goes both ways. However it is much more difficult to find someone with no experience of Windows (I've used MS products for 15+ years before switching and still have Windows VM for testing) than someone with no experience with OS X. Somehow that does not stop the latter crowd from talking about walled gardens, form over function, „it's all marketing“, computers for non-techie people (it's UNIX, are you kidding me?), hipsters and gays, etc.
Actually, I perceive it too. Most Windows developers I meet are doing either Java or .Net - or, even worse, SAP, Oracle or... maintaining legacy VB client server/stuff. That's not a place you would expect interesting things to happen.
At least, not for me - I focus on dynamic languages, web frameworks and distributed databases - the interesting stuff can usually be coerced into running on Windows, but it tends to involve things like Cygwin or VMs. If you have to use Cygwin or a VM to do your job, you are really running the wrong OS for the job.
Here in Vietnam, where a laptop can cost several months' salary for the average person, I have yet to see a single Macbook. Asia will undoubtedly be the big growth market of the next decade and kids here are Windows kids. Perfectly functional Windows laptops are still 1/3 to 1/2 the price of the cheapest Macbook.
That's weird. Where do you live? I'm Vietnamese and last time I was home, Macbook(s) and iPad were quite popular at the airport and cafe. I'm from Da Nang.
I've been in a bunch of places in the south but I'm living in Nha Trang now. I see tons of laptops around but I have yet to see a Vietnamese using a Macbook. Maybe the people that can afford to fly can also afford a more expensive laptop?
I do see a fair number of iPhones around though. Maybe because comparable Android phones aren't significantly cheaper.
If you've been to Hanoi to HCMC, it would not be hard to spot Apple shops along main shopping streets (there must be a demand for such shops, right?). I agree that Apple laptop is more expensive but to the middle class in big city that would not be a big deal. The main issue with Vietnam market is that people still associate computer in general with Windows, thus they don't want to make the switch. The first reaction I got from my friends 5 years ago when they knew I was using a mac was "Does it have microsoft office?".
Regarding the iPhone, Vietnamese are crazy for the iPhone 4. Rich kids want cool looking stuff, they don't care about the price.
Anecdotal evidence against anecdotal evidence against more anecdotal evidence.
There is extensive market research on the distribution of brands. People estimate proliferation by analyzing user agents of web site visitors, surveys, sales numbers, and more -- and even those numbers often vary greatly.
Guessing the distribution, or even forecasting a trend, based on your analysis of the 5 people sitting next to you in a café or how many Mac Stores exist in your vicinity doesn't contribute to the discussion.
I wouldn't be surprised to see more Apple hardware in more middle class areas of the larger cities where people have the money to spend and are engaged more aggressively in conspicuous consumption. Here in Nha Trang there are at least five large PC shops but only one tiny Apple shop.
Compared to the U.S. it's cheap but still too expensive for many natives. I can fly from Nha Trang to Saigon for about $40 but I can take a bus for $5-$8.
I remember reading somewhere that the profit ratio is about 1:10 for Macs vs. PCs so in your scenario Apple made twice as much money in your cafe than the PC OEMs did. That's exactly why HP is getting out of the consumer PC business.
You might be right though that lots of people have no interest in a post-PC era but how much longer will the discount PC isle be well stocked? They may not have much of a choice. HP decided the business model is broken and not worth saving. They were relying on constant growth of the PC market to slash prices to the bone. Now what? If there's not enough demand prices will have to increase. If the business model is broken for HP isn't it probably broken for Dell and the other big PC OEMs too. They will benefit in the short term from HP bowing out but over the next 3-5 years they will face the same problem. So chances are the post-discount-PC era is going to happen with or without the users consent.
I think this is less a matter of the "post PC world" as it is a matter of PC's having razor slim profit margins due to low barriers to entry and heavy competition. HP knows that and can probably put their capital to more profitable use. Apple makes great products (I have an iphone, an ipod, will probably be buying an ipad next). Still, when it comes to computers, I like to get a bit more bang for my buck than apple is willing to offer.
Go sit in any college lecture hall and you will see at least 60% Apple products. Apple heavily markets toward college students (Student discounts and back to school promotions) and these same students will be buying Macs for their homes and offices soon.
OSes have grown much closer to each other over the last five to eight years; websites (or "the cloud" or whatever term you wish to refer to server-browser-driven software) are much more important; the relative cost gap between Macs and Windows machines is much smaller; Apple laptops appear to be vastly better made than any mainstream Windows laptops save Thinkpads.
Take these together, and you'll see a lot of Aluminum MacBooks on campus. Geeks like them because of the Terminal, GNU toolchain, and the fact that other geeks have spent lots of time optimizing the general OS X programming environment; everyone else likes them because they're more aesthetically attractive than Windows laptops.
I agree that the obstacles to entry are much lower for Apple now. But there is still a significant price premium for Apple laptops. Maybe it's not consequential for people that can afford to pay tuition in a Western university but for the rest of the world that premium is still decisive.
Which is exactly why competing tablets haven't gained ground. Why buy a less usable device for the same price? Things in the tablet market will only get interesting when and if Android vendors can significantly undercut Apple.
But now that students are taking on more loans so they can afford it. Now, Apple doesn't have to entice you with a 40% discount. They know you'll buy it anyway so 10% off is more than enough for them.
Depends on the college. I sat in on a CS class recently at a local university and there were 2 or 3 Apple products in a lecture hall of 100 something students.
Lol thats the first thing that went through my head when I read the article too.
"As I write this, I'm sitting on my balcony. Within my frame of view, there are 4 coffee shops, one on each corner of the intersection - four of them are Starbucks. Welcome to the post get your own damn internet and make your own damn coffee world"
Please don't use the word 'hipster' and expect to be taken seriously. So many groups of people have been tagged with it that it's completely meaningless.
Hipster has a meaning, even if it only describes what it isn't. It's much like Christianity. If you say you are a Christian all you're really saying is that you're not an Atheist. Hipster has the same symbolism, you're essentially saying what you're not. Hipsters of almost all stripes tend to progressive and independent in some way. It could be related to their religion ( http://www.twloha.com/ ), culture, fashion, or politics.
Mac might be slowly gaining on Windows but it's a very slow growth.
That San Franciscans use more Macs should be a surprise to no one. Their salaries are a lot higher than people on the east coast (a few choice cities excluded). Of course their living expenses are a lot higher too; but computers cost the same no matter where you live. $1200 to a San Franciscan is a different type of purchasing decision than to someone from, say Ohio. In San Francisco $1200 is a month's rent on a studio apartment. In many parts of the east coast that's a pretty luxurious 3 bedroom condo.
At the risk of getting seriously offtopic, my map shows bits of Ohio being closer to the Atlantic than parts of Oregon and Washington are to the Pacific, so perhaps we should say "Ohio is the East Coast only if Spokane is the West Coast".
And this is what I was referencing actually. I should have included the link, but I thought it was common knowledge that Ohio was the furthest east state that is a part of the Midwest.
I know this is a very popular notion, but I don't think it's actually true. Two arguments follow:
One often overlooked thing is that as a market becomes saturated with a product of a company with total market share, those already-sold products increasing become that company's competition. So long as the company does not resort to special laws from the government (i.e., does not seek to obtain a coercive monopoly), it must continually best its existing achivements. This is sometimes accomplished by adding features that give the company access to new markets for its products (selling a smartphone after gaining experience with portable music players).
Secondly, on an individual basis, the desire for excellence always comes from within, and results from an inward ethical focus. The goal for those true strivers is not set by or on the existence of others: it is not "let's destroy X," but rather, "let's bring this new thing into existence." In a truly innovative company, this attitude predominates because it is held by the majority of its employees.
My bet is, that the tablet sales will be good in terms of absolute numbers, but not as high the industry had wished.
I still do not see the too many compelling usecases when comparing a tablet with a smartphone + netbook/ultra leight weight laptop.
Hence the hugh success of the Ipad is in my opinion not much a result of its advanced features or even its slick design but rather its clever position as a must have status symbol.
I'm inclined to think so too, and my own iPad has mostly been relegated to super-Kindle status. Ironically, "ultra" notebooks like the new Macbook Air destroy 90% of the appeal of a tablet for me. Three pounds and eleven inches is not a burden to port around when it's that capable.
the iPad sees record adoption among mobile field forces. big pharma is going nuts over it, placing orders of 10.000+ ipads at once. it has no moving parts, it is idiot proof. if it breaks, the rep can go into a best buy, buy a new one, log+sync, done - everything works as before, including the apps. with iOS5 and OTA upgrades this will be even easier.
the pain of fielding 10000 hp tablet pcs globally suddenly goes away. for a cheaper device, that is lighter, faster, sturdier, with great battery life. with a stable, consistent OS environment below it. no more OS images, driver fuckups, etc etc etc.
the iPad will destroy headcounts in enterprise IT just like Exchange did in the realm of secretaries.
Really? How long have you worked in enterprise IT?
We been dealing with mobile users for decades and it's a small percentage of our staff/budget that actually deals with in-field devices and issues. iPads and smart phones are nice, but the sales force and folks at remote sites find themselves more productive with a laptop that has a keyboard and the ability to run "true applications".
As for HP, it hasn't been the HP of lore in decades.
some years by now actually. what is a "true application"? siebel? sap crm? both dead dead dead.
combining crm and clm on the ipad rocks the world of the sales reps out there. no more paper. digital signatures on a slim device.
i saw the hordes of IT needed to manage the windows tablets out there, maintaining windows SMS servers or some 3rd party solutions, then also patching and updating all that other "true apps". noticed that apple solved that through the app store, once and for all?
servers are getting killed by SaaS, notebooks by the iPad. SAP has fielded 17000 iPads internally...
Aren't you describing a niche here? Sure tablets are going to be great with some uses in business, travelling salesman, in meetings/presentations etc. But surely the vast majority of office employees sit behind a desk, making a cheaper more powerfull desktop computer the standard choice?
I have a phone, a desktop, a MacBook air (I.e. A better netbook), and an iPad. I use the iPad far more than any of the other devices when I'm not coding.
So between Apple's ritzy kickass mobile PCs and the boatloads of sub-$100 chinese Androids that will flood the market soon, is there any room for a third platform? I really don't see anything stopping RIM and Microsoft from ending up at the same dead end.
For many years now, the majority of Microsoft's revenue has come from enterprise sales, and Apple and Google has a very long way to go to dominate that market.
I meant I see Microsoft's Windows Phone platform ending up in the same place the WebOS platform is in. Certainly Microsoft may stay in business selling refreshed versions of Office and Exchange. But I don't see how that will translate into success in an all-mobile + all-cloud computing world where Microsoft has no strength.
We use Windows 7 on our office workstations, and I was surprised and am daily impressed at how Mac-like it is. It doesn't get in the way of what you're trying to do.
Win 7 users: Try holding the combo Windows-key + Tab for a nice 3d carousel
... and SharePoint, and Windows OS, and quite possibly Azure.
More "enterprise" companies seem to trust MS more than say Amazon or Google.
Should Microsoft worry when it comes to mobile? Maybe. But keep in mind that there's a niche market of creating some sort of "adapter" from native mobile app to render Microsoft non-compatible-but-crucial-enterprise-software from SharePoint to quite possibly Dynamic CRM/ERP.
Not defending MS, just stating what I see these days.
Glad to see MG switching things up from his usual screencaps of Gladiator. If you're going to frame every tech story as a battle, Mike Tyson's Punch-Out seems more appropriate.
I imagine HP will be dismayed to discover they were Glass Joe. They were shooting for Super Macho Man but they thought they were at least Don Flamenco.
The German Von Kaiser (WePad) seems to have been knocked out before even getting in the ring. Look forward to the next round with Piston Honda (Sony?). Of course in this new 2011 version it's not "Little Mac", it's "Absolutely Domineering Mac".
"The Post-PC device is about the combination of hardware and software all built and integrated by one company. Google doesn’t get that."
Except that they create partnerships to put out a Google-branded phone, and just bought the leading Android device manufacturer in order to more tightly couple the experience, so that's exactly what the "get"... (Sees post author) Oh, nevermind. Look, I like Apple products as much as the next guy, but at what point will this MG clown be happy? I hope Apple pays him a decent salary.
Does anyone else find the timing odd? At the start of the week, Google announce that they are getting into the hardware game with Android. At the end of the week, HP announce that they are getting out of the WebOS hardware game. But note that they say they are looking at options to maximise the value of the WebOS software. It makes me wonder if HTC / Samsung aren't hedging their bets by looking to license WebOS.
I mean, it kind of makes sense - WebOS is acclaimed as being a solid piece of software, it's certainly the most iPhone-esque of the competitors (Android, Windows Mobile 7, RIM). At a minimum, I would think HTC/Samsung would have an interest in maintaining a viable WebOS, even if it was just to be able to use it as a bludgeon if ever Google stops playing nice with Android.
I am skeptical about Palm's IP finding its way to Amazon. Amazon seems to have invested heavily in Android not only with its own store but a whole line of tablets and phones coming out very, very soon. The talent might be good. But the patents aren't critical and there is no way Amazon wants to go down the same path that just failed for HP.
Really, Google would be the best suitor of Palm if anyone was going to buy it. Google needs those patents bad. Google can use webOS code and engineers on ChromeOS. The UI designers can go to the Android team. And Google just got a hardware division that can absorb any remaining hardware guys.
If Google can get all that for $2 billion it should write the check tomorrow. Bargain.
The only thing is that Amazon mainly seems to want to run their own software, and have their own app store. Having a different os might help. Seems unnecessary for them though.
An aside to this thread, but Windows Phone 7 isn't as bad as you might think. I understand that you are mainly wary of the Microsoft slow moving / non-exciting culture but Windows Phone 7 is quite exciting. Microsoft Research does a lot of really fabulous HCI research and slowly but surely it is percolating through the company despite having dinosaurs like Ballmer in charge. To refer to a lame example, I was pleasantly surprised when I saw that a phone UI actually used amodal completion in it's design(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amodal_perception). A mobile phone with its limited screen real estate is ideal for such a design and I believe this came out of their research lab.
Anyway, Siegler's article had the interesting reference to Amazon. If Jeff Bezos/Amazon picks up WebOS, it might just have a chance of survival.
I really hope WebOS finds safe harbor. We lost Maemo or Meego or whatever it's (was) called last week and now this. The players are dropping out too early. Maybe the iPad "won" but the space will be big enough to support other players. I want more choices at this early stage, not fewer.
"I’ve said this before, but thought it was worth repeating: It’s in Apple’s DNA that technology alone is not enough. That it’s technology married with liberal arts, married with the humanities, that yields us the result that makes our hearts sing." - Steve Jobs
I went to see Star Wars in 1977, I stood in line for hours to see the first showing in Toronto. There were no DVDs, not even VCRs in those days. I can now stream the trilogy to a tablet on my lap in bed.
Yes, this fucking piece of consumer electronics makes my heart sing. That's because I'm living in a future I couldn't even imagine when I was fifteen, and lord how I tried to imagine the future.
YMMV. It's fine with me if this doesn't blow your mind.
Since Jobs returned to Apple, he's directed a sharp and rapid rise in the value of the company, including launches of several separate high visibility and impact product lines. But you already know this. Your claim is a lot like saying Michael Jordan got lucky to have such weak competition.
I'm a fan. When something is good, the only rational choice is to be one.
I can't deny that Apple has executed extremely well in the last decade. I use and enjoy a bunch of their devices. But their competition has also been really dumb and that's distracted from some of the genuine weaknesses of Apple's gear over the same time period.
When you remember how badly designed and marketed the iPod's competitors were its success is less remarkable.
This is true, I can't remember how many smart phones I went through from Nokia, HP, Sony, etc trying to find one that that was usable. All these companies were producing junk, in the end I gave up and went back to a dumb phone, until the iPhone...
I have not. I don't know him personally. What about him repulses so many people? I am genuinely curious. Please share, I'm sure a lot of us are wondering the same thing.
Steve Jobs is many things. He's a tech visionary and a great communicator. He's also an asshole and a liar. Like many great historic figures, his good qualities are inextricably bound up with his bad qualities.
I don't have any animosity towards the guy at all but I have to chuckle when he shovels out bologna like that.
OK, that is what many different people say about him. Must be true. I wonder if he has changed any after being kicked out?
I guess there is no genius without some form of madness. I respect him mainly because he is a product of the 60's counterculture and was able to infuse "cosmic consciousness" into technology.
I'm glad you don't. So many people take it way too far. It's just a computer man.
If I could ask him one question I would really like to know how he sees his life's work from the perspective of his inspirations from the 60s. In some respects what he's done seems very much in keeping with those ideals (fostering creativity and an appreciation for beauty) and in others totally antithetical (creating walled gardens, using the legal system as a cudgel). It goes to the heart of my own ambivalence about Apple. I like their products but I'm finding it hard to like the company lately.
After one-or-another of Dick Cheney's heart attacks, the news media spent some time quoting research about the way that life-threatening illnesses can change one's personality; how (of course) people react differently to such crises, but also how driven, egocentric men tend to refine and focus their priorities, and even to jettison qualms that they might have previously carried.
It's not surprising to me that an ambitious man like Jobs, who (arguably) failed with Apple the first time around, then failed with NeXT, then became seriously ill while leading a resurgent Apple, might decide that the touchy-feely bits of his youthful worldview are less important than a more tangible legacy.
I'm not saying it's the correct choice, or laudable, but it is understandable.
I read this today. The details may be wrong, but this has been his general attitude. And more than anything that is why I respect him.
Rumelt congratulated Jobs on the turnaround but expressed skepticism about Apple’s chances of overcoming the Windows-Intel lock on personal computers. “What are you going to do in the longer term?” Rumelt asked. “What’s the strategy?”
Jobs, he recalls, “just smiled and said, ‘I am going to wait for the next big thing.’”
This is a real shame, at the high end HP produced workstations that are truly superlative. I have a Z800 sat next to me that has smaller than a Mac Pro, more silent, more powerful, and IMHO looks fabulous.
The work I do means that I can't see me getting rid of a workstation in a long while even though I recognise the that consumer desktop market has been obliterated over these past 5 or 10 years (laptops > ultra-portables > netbooks > tablets) I really hope that the more business focused part of HP remain intact and churning out incredible products.
Very nicely articulated article from MG on this. Although I may be biased since it pretty much echoes every point I believe as well. Anyone think otherwise?
The opening line of extrapolating a SFO cafe to a Post-PC _world_ was pretty cheesy. This guy has no idea how things work in the world, especially Asia.
Also no mention of how Carly Fiorina got rid of the R&D teams to cut costs, leading to the current disaster. Siegler comes across as a shallow fanboy, atleast Gruber can put some better spin on things.
Don't want to turn this into flame, but I disagree with your argument. I thought it is Asia that is more PC-less than US & Europe. And it is impossible to tell if the R&D teams really stay and did a good job, would it really make webOS flourish or would it just prolong its dismise. Can webOS even win 3rd place without a true believing CEO that bet the company behind it? That is why I believe that details about how it got into this "mess" is irrelevant to the article.
Nothing you have said counters fuzzyfinger point 'I thought it is Asia that is more PC-less than US & Europe.'
Yes, Asia may have more macs, and they may be growing more, but we are after statistics showing more people use mobile devices for internet access than PCs.
Biased techcrunch reporting apart, I felt a bit saddened by the announcement because I actually thought HP had a chance at being "one of the three" in the devices space. I liked their webos demos and their devices seemed pleasing to use. Oh well.
Also you live in San Francisco, I'm sitting in a cafe in Florida, and we got 2 macs (me (developer) and another guy that is a designer apparently) and 10 PC, welcome back to the PC era.