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> AR is going to be bigger than mobile and the PC

AR will be a niche product constrained primarily to industrial applications.

There, we've both made our blind predictions, now we get to see who's right!




Mine isn’t blind but based on the emotional connection I’ve seen happen in VR between family members.


No, that's just a different kind of blindness: not recognizing your own experiences might not extrapolate to others.

I'm sure there was pockets of people who thought 3D TV was the greatest thing ever, and look how far that technology has come. Alexa and Siri were once upon a time going to be the greatest things ever, until everyone realized how very meh the experience was in practice. Smart watches were similarly going to change the world and have since largely pivoted to being niche products for health nuts.

BTW, I'm not saying you're absolutely wrong! I just don't think there's any reason to believe you're right, either, and a lot of reasons you might not be, including sky-high costs, practical technology limitations, the lack of killer applications, social barriers to adoption (see: Google Glass), etc.


Once I saw a father who was separated from his kids by an ocean get down on the floor with them and draw together in VR, I realized that basic human needs are going to be met by VR technology eventually. The removal of physical proximity as a pre-requisite for social presence is about as disruptive development as they come. It’s not 3D TV, and it’s not about tech: it is about the human experience of being together when physically apart. This is why Facebook is repositioning the whole company behind it. Zuck has understood this for a long time.


> Once I saw a father who was separated from his kids by an ocean get down on the floor with them and draw together in VR

Man, that family must be doing very well for themselves to afford at least two full VR rigs.

Look, if VR kit becomes reasonably priced for average consumers (which also means GPU prices have to come down), maybe I could buy into your touching vision, here.

But we've got a long way to go before this kind of gear is remotely affordable enough to result in the kind of mass adoption required to realize these purported benefits.

As for Zuck, if he sees opportunity here, all the more reason for me to hope it never succeeds...


They were using Samsung S6 phones on GearVR. No hand tracking, even. Quest 2 is light years more capable.




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