The Segway in some ways succeeded, but it came in the form of electric scooters and EUCs. The thesis was right - personal electric vehicles - but you can’t rebuild cities.
It is not a useful analogy in any case, for a variety of reasons. The question you need to be asking is if video games will be able to break into reality once a certain level of capability and UX is met. You may be too old: AR may be a young person’s reality.
That's not really a revolutionary thesis? At least, not to the point where I would hold it up as a prior for AR. Bicycles started appearing in the early 1800s, adding an electric motor was an obvious step once the technology was small enough.
It is not a useful analogy in any case, for a variety of reasons. The question you need to be asking is if video games will be able to break into reality once a certain level of capability and UX is met. You may be too old: AR may be a young person’s reality.