It's not just the rate of exceptional events, but what happens when the exceptional event occurs.
1. Miss your flight? They will try to book you on another. That's why load factor is important -- to find that extra seat. Low cost airlines have higher load factors (more efficient) so they are less able to accomodate you.
2. Bigger problem? There are reciprocity agreements to fly with a different airline. Low cost airlines don't have the same coverage, so again less able to accomodate you.
It's just a general principle of efficiency versus robustness. With the low cost airline you are choosing the more efficient/less robust option. So when something goes wrong, it will be more painful.
That extra pain is more important than differences in the rate that things go wrong.
Other perks, like more value to frequent flyer miles, availability of first class, being able to pick your seat, etc, also play a role.
Yeah, when something goes wrong it will be more painful, but that's why it's cheaper and the odds of it happening are low. There are many times people travel where leaving a day late isn't a big deal.
1. Miss your flight? They will try to book you on another. That's why load factor is important -- to find that extra seat. Low cost airlines have higher load factors (more efficient) so they are less able to accomodate you.
2. Bigger problem? There are reciprocity agreements to fly with a different airline. Low cost airlines don't have the same coverage, so again less able to accomodate you.
It's just a general principle of efficiency versus robustness. With the low cost airline you are choosing the more efficient/less robust option. So when something goes wrong, it will be more painful.
That extra pain is more important than differences in the rate that things go wrong.
Other perks, like more value to frequent flyer miles, availability of first class, being able to pick your seat, etc, also play a role.