It's important to keep in mind the average (or median) case rather than outliers. I.e. how frequently would an automated system outperform a human during an emergency.
Presumably the checklists were created for a good reason. Had Sully's outcome been different, there would've been a lot of hemming & hawing about not following procedure.
This is pretty much impossible to measure. If we could predict every failure mode imaginable, then I think it might be possible if you could predict humans. However, humans are not predictable and you can’t predict every failure or combination of failures.
In other news, I’m looking forward to Uber Eats saying “Jesus is on a jetpack” instead of his usual bicycle.
> The good news is that general aviation flying is getting safer. Accidents through 2018 are essentially flat over the preceding four years: about 1200 accidents per year and 200 fatal accidents per year.
Presumably the checklists were created for a good reason. Had Sully's outcome been different, there would've been a lot of hemming & hawing about not following procedure.