See but since there was no actual randomized test the fact that Brazil did a no-lockdown strategy (which I guess some say is false)… it could have been just as big of a disaster even with a lockdown.
There is basically no real way to prove that lockdowns did a single thing. The fact so many countries were so willing to jump onto a completely unproven non pharmaceutical intervention that has massive negative side effects is pretty scary.
The fact so many people get hot and bothered by this and just assume that lockdowns worked at all… it’s quite disturbing.
Its proven. It’s physics. I can’t catch covid from you because we’re probably on different continents. Living across the street works as well if I don’t open the door. This has been tested for every transmissible disease every organism has had that we’ve managed to witness. Similarly, fewer interactions result in fewer opportunities for transmission. Reduce transmission and the numbers go down. What’s to prove here?
Lockdowns are an incredibly fragile “solution”. It’s a multi agent problem with lots of probabilities. All lockdowns allow some “essential workers” to not lockdown. You could have only 2% of workers deemed essential—and there is no general rule since all geographies are different and in situations like the exact details matter—and have the exact same long term outcomes as no lock down at all. It’s fun to run multi agent simulations and see how easy it is to screw up any centralized plan through the injection of little probabilitities.
In my opinion anything that does not allow people to exercise conditional probability at the last mile is bound to have negative expected value.
Things that I do think make a difference: better airflow,
more outdoor time, less obesity, better testing, a public equipped
with better tools to diagnose and treat conditions at home, vaccines, better data infra and publishing of medical data, etc. Dumb blanket mandates that are applied across a population are stupid.
There is basically no real way to prove that lockdowns did a single thing. The fact so many countries were so willing to jump onto a completely unproven non pharmaceutical intervention that has massive negative side effects is pretty scary.
The fact so many people get hot and bothered by this and just assume that lockdowns worked at all… it’s quite disturbing.