Electric cars are on the cusp of replacing ICE vehicles. By mid-decade, electric cars will be the top-selling models.
Given how far behind it is on electrification and their legacy cost structure, which includes massive pension liabilities and an outmoded dealership network, I have grave doubts about GM's ability to survive their next bankruptcy.
Ironically, GM had the first EV that was positively received by its owners; that didn't look like a golf cart or a toy. Then recalled and destroyed them all. A decade before Tesla had produced the first Roadster models.
They could have been the market leader, with a 10 year head start on everyone else.
It's a classic example of a Christensen disruption. The disruptive technologies are often pioneered or even invented by "old guard" companies, but they ironically fail to capitalize on the invention, and eventually fall by the wayside as they're surpassed by younger upstarts.
It's been a while since I read the book ("The Innovator's Dilemma—a classic!), but IIRC, Christensen disruptions are characterized by:
- worse performance, but...
- better reliability and other characteristics, thus requiring...
- new markets to be developed that can use the technology, resulting in...
- steady improvement, leading to...
- cannibalizing the old technology "from below" as the new technology's performance becomes good enough to take over the old market, resulting in...
- the old sellers fleeing "up market" to higher margin, higher demand customers, ironically creating some of their best sales years, but...
- the disruptive technology marches on, continuing to erode the old technology's performance advantage, until finally...
- the old technology disappears and the old sellers have nothing to sell, and...
- the old sellers die.
The old sellers have trouble embracing the new technology because of the complex existing relationships with middle management, suppliers, and customers. It's not blindness—it's a major cultural upheaval, and it's almost impossible to overcome.
Electric drive trains (mainly engines + batteries + chargers) appear to fit the definition of a disruptive technology perfectly. I think companies like GM and Toyota are in trouble.
I'm noticing a theme here. Sears owned Prodigy in the eighties, only to face certain bankruptcy because they were unable to adapt to the subsequent Internet.
Iv seen one video of this service in action recorded by some local access TV morning show once, but cant find it anymore :( It was all text based, but apparently featured all products available thru paper catalogs.
> Electric cars are on the cusp of replacing ICE vehicles. By mid-decade, electric cars will be the top-selling models.
We hear this since Tesla promissed EVs for the masses. I don't see pure EVs taking over anytime soon. Not until they reach parity of charging station with petrol station. And this will happen maybe, after the grid is improved. The issue is that electrical energy prices have started to rise and they will rise further when atomic and coal plants are decomisioned (fewer production) which will also slow the adoption of EVs.
> Given how far behind it is on electrification and their legacy cost structure, which includes massive pension liabilities and an outmoded dealership network, I have grave doubts about GM's ability to survive their next bankruptcy.
Well, some industries are strategical and I do not see the military industrial complex relying on vehicles from overseas.
> Not until they reach parity of charging station with petrol station
One thing to remember is that all ICE cars need a gas station but not all EVs need a public charging station. I only use a charging station for long road trips the rest of my charging is done at home.
My Bolt battery died at under 3,000 miles and was replaced back in November, just before the first recall was announced. Actually it was in the dealership still when the recall announcement came through. I like the car and think GM did a good job with it.
Though, at this point I have about 10 months left on my Bolt lease and if it wasn’t for supply issues on new cars and not knowing what to do next I would probably turn it in early. Due to working from home pre-Covid and not much changing during, I haven’t even put 4,000 miles on it after 26 months. It makes almost no sense to have a car, except kids.
Yes, but kids are a pretty big reason to have a car. A few years ago I thought about getting rid of a car and I realized that the kids made it pretty hard.
Given how far behind it is on electrification and their legacy cost structure, which includes massive pension liabilities and an outmoded dealership network, I have grave doubts about GM's ability to survive their next bankruptcy.