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Moore’s law is quite dead. Transistor density isn’t doubling. We’re still getting speed increases due to architectural improvements, but transistor density is capping out because thermals are a problem. That’s why you see these massive wafer designs and they’re not shrinking.



Both TSMC and Intel have transistor density increases on their process roadmaps, although they definitely aren't doubling.


> Transistor density isn’t doubling.

It pretty much continues to double: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count#/media/File...


Raw transistor count isn't the same as density.


Sure, but if you look at the raw transistor count of a series of similarly sized dies (take Apple's A series for example), it holds up. It only doesn't hold up if you look at Intel the last 5 years. If you look at series' made on TSMC or Samsung, it holds up.


If you look at CPU performance relative to density as it has progressed over the last few decades, there's a clear decline in speed improvement. Denser only means faster to a point, regardless of Intel's process update failures.


Not sure what you’re replying to. The statement I’m replying to didn’t say anything about performance. It said “ Transistor density isn’t doubling.”


I have always looked at Moore's "law" as a proxy for performance, so I felt it was relevant, if tangential.


Moore’s law was about count, not density.


I mean, strictly speaking, you're technically correct. Informally, though, it's a proxy for transistor density.



Yes, count for optimum cost per transistor. So perhaps GP's statement was incomplete but not wrong.




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