It's quite interesting how people keep betting against Elon. The HN crowd should consist of mostly risk-tolerant personalities, but the majority of comments are negative. Regardless of what one might think of the feasibility, no other company in the world today are as ambitions as SpaceX and Tesla (+ Neuralink). Feels like what Apple used to be during the "one more thing"-era.
Both Tesla and SpaceX has been discounted so many times before, and despite proving time and time again that they will and can deliver, they keep getting discounted.
"It's quite interesting how people keep betting against Elon."
Because he doesn't have superpowers.
Making a car that runs on batteries is a feat, ramping up production of an automobile is a feat, but within reason.
Making a humanoid robot, something that nobody else in the world has any clue how to do, and which Tesla has no background in ... well that's more than a feat.
So a better question - why do people continue to believe this guy when he makes such claims?
> Making a humanoid robot, something that nobody else in the world has any clue how to do, and which Tesla has no background in ... well that's more than a feat.
Boston Dynamics has shown robots capable of dancing. Can Tesla replicate? Maybe not in one year, but for such a project it doesn't really matter if it's late.
I'm betting against him selectively. For example I'm skeptical about Bot, Hyperloop, Neuralink or FSD happening within 5 to 10 years of the original timeline.
Not to take away from their brilliant engineering accomplishments, but SpaceX and Tesla were dealing with technically solved problems. We (as a species) have been to space, and we know how to build electric batteries and cars.
These were at the advanced engineering stage after enormous scientific progress of the last few hundred years and going all the way back to beginning of physics and math.
With AI we are at pre-science stage, hunting mammoths with flint arrowheads and wooden spears.
I mentioned in another comment that I think this has to do with the very human phenomenon of the narrative paradigm shift (a type of M. Night Shamalyn plot twist).
Goes something like this:
The guy that took on the military industrial complex with his small little startup and actually won, with wild whacky ideas like landing rockets upright, and winning NASA contracts against the likes of Boeing and Lockheed, is actually not who you think he is.
He’s not?
Nope, even though he was one of the single strongest drivers of electric vehicles that is pretty much making the rest of the industry shift after the viability of electric was shown with Tesla cars. The truth is, he actually sucks.
Oh, what a plot twist. Wait, does this have a happy ending now that we know he’s a really a bad guy?
And then we fill in the redemption story.
It’s the creepiest thing, and I have no idea why we keep doing it.
I can think of so many people who are radically more accomplished in vastly more interesting and important ways, it feels absurd to start listing because of how many I'd be leaving out by doing so.
Can you not? Like, how about people who have made major academic or philosophical breakthroughs? Major authors? Even within business, or celebrity, Elon doesn't stick out much other than filling a small niche.
The problem with naming them is that then it becomes a discussion on whether the people I've named are impressive. Someone mentioned Einstein and was downvoted. Einstein is very obviously more interesting and accomplished in my mind than Elon, but he's one of many. Turing was 23 when he wrote his thesis on algorithmic computation. There are people with multiple turing awards out there.
If your yard stick is "rich person who made more money" yes, or "CEO who makes memes", or "is a celebrity", Elon is impressive relative to the general population. It's a sad, sad way to measure accomplishments, but sure.
The point is they needed to make multiple significant independent breakthroughs in established fields.
Turing like a lot of pioneers is seriously overrated. When surrounded by low hanging fruit it’s easy to seemingly make a great deal of progress especially when your credited with formalizing existing ideas or making that one last step into usefulness.
Einstein actually pushed boundaries in a well established field which is vastly more impressive. Musk significantly pushing the boundaries in cars, rockets, computer networks, and banking is quite impressive in that context. We can quibble about PayPal, but I am being consistent in ignoring the charging network and self driving system etc as those are emerging fields. Clearly he’s not operating alone, but few people did.
Newton is perhaps the most obvious example of significant progress in independent and established fields and IMO far more impressive, but it’s really not a long list.
The requirement to list someone isn’t to judge that person it’s to judge your standard and demonstrate a flaw in your argument.
Purely objectively, Musk is the second richest person on the planet to the possible exclusion of dictators. That in and of it’s self is rarified air. Winning the silver in say diving isn’t nearly as impressive simply because the is so much less competition. The Marathon is perhaps a closer analogy except that’s a more question of genetic gifts than pure grit.
Doing that and starting a single business like Bill Gates is a true accomplishment, but he’s done multiple independent and highly successful companies. That’s rarified air over the history of humanity.
You personally might not value such things, but that’s simply not an objective standard. Doing that and only making high speed low latency global internet available around the world would be enough on it’s own to be worth talking about. This isn’t a small thing a lot of people failed to tackle the exact same problem. Except Starlink alone isn’t what people think about which is a sign of just how much the guy got done.
The guy literally launched his own car (that his car company produced), into Mars orbit using a rocket that his other company built.
Both of these companies have become the largest companies in their respective fields and can arguably be labeled the two most complex and highest barrier to entry industries. Sending humans into orbit has only been accomplished by large nation states, no company has even done that besides SpaceX. As for car manufacturing, it’s been over 50 years since a new competitor has entered, and only Ford and Tesla have never gone bankrupt.
To anyone trying to argue this isn’t the most accomplished human alive, give me a friggin break
Lots of overlap on the lists, but I decided not to doubly-list individuals -- and the lists are by no means complete, I favored recent centuries.
That said, Musk is tremendously successful and awe-inspiring; this pissing contest is a miserable thing to participate in -- but I still think it's important to point out that Musk isn't the only awe-inspiring success ever.
I'll put it to you another way: if Tesla vanished tomorrow, life wouldn't really change. There may be a few brownouts in a corner of the planet as Tesla batteries vanish and power generators kick in, but life would largely be the same. EV adoption would continue sans Tesla just fine. Self-driving would probably even improve because there wouldn't be the risk of one greedy company, guinea-pigging people and ignoring laws for the sake of share price and potentially bringing the wraith of regulators on the sector.
If Amazon vanishes, Western civilization collapses. That's it. There'd be riots on the street. Critical infrastructure would cease to work for months. Entire supply chains would fall apart and billions of people would be impacted negatively. And it's not like the world would go on. It would take years for competitors to spin up the capacity to replace the void Amazon vanishing would cause in multiple industries.
And the beauty is that while Musk is clearly obsessed with Bezos, I don't think Bezos really thinks about Musk much at all. Just like we can tell that Musk checks the share price multiple times per day, but I suspect Bezos has no idea what Amazon's share price is at unless he's selling to fund other ventures. Also importantly, Bezos has set things up so when he dies, Amazon goes on just fine. If Musk dies, that's the end of Tesla.
Oh the guy who has poured billions of dollars into Blue Origin over 20+ years with little to show for it aside from failed legal attempts / overturned patents to attempt to hinder SpaceX, and a penis shaped sub-orbital rocket?
$100M will also barely make a dent in the creation of a real autonomous humanoid robot. Even $100B might not be enough. That's how hard of a problem this is.
It's a fair criticism that Elon Musk would probably agree with.
He attempts extraordinarily ambitious things that very few other people would even dream of attempting. Sometimes things take longer and/or perform worse than he hoped they would. Sometimes he succeeds beyond anyone's expectations. In any case, he keeps trying to push the world forward, and that's the highest calling of any engineer in my book.
I still can't book a 25 minute SpaceX Earth to Earth flight from LA to NY but I wouldn't be surprised if I could in 10 or 15 years.
> He attempts extraordinarily ambitious things that very few other people would even dream of attempting.
He makes stock plays. Then he lets everyone pick-up the hype for him. This is a very real skill, and he is excellent at it. It is not the same as accomplishing things.
He has shipped 1+ million electric vehicles, transforming the auto industry, which will contribute massively to reducing global emissions, etc.
He has delivered rockets that have resupplied the space station, sent astronauts to space, and will almost certainly lead to building bases on the moon and mars, etc.
A lot more than making "stock plays". The blindness of the haters is astounding. There are very legitimate critiques of Elon Musk, but denying his self-evident accomplishments is beyond delusional.
>he attempts extraordinary ambitious things that very few other people would even dream of attempting.
What are you even talking about? Thousands of people have thought of tackling (1) self driving cars and have made steps towards accomplishing it before musk, (2) reusable rockets, man that has been on the dreams of rocket engineers for decades but we didn't have the computing power to do it, (3) a boring machine... Well we have been doing that for over a century, (4) electric cars, well hate to break it to you but we have been doing that for a century, (5) mars colonization, I feel like everyone born after 69 have been dreaming of how to make that possible; see (case for Mars).
Elon musk isn't some gift from god who comes up with extraordinary projects that no-one else is even dreaming of. He is a wealthy business man, son of wealth, who invests his time and energy into driving top talent in the fields he chooses to attempt to accomplish what he promises vaguely on Twitter. And just like Jobs, he takes all the credit for engineering achievements that could never be accomplished by one man in any reasonable time frame.
Okay, other people dream of attempting these things and Elon Musk actually does attempt them. Is that more clear?
Semantic nitpicking doesn't take anything away from his accomplishments.
If you think Elon Musk or Steve Jobs are just taking credit for other people's work you know absolutely nothing about the history of their companies.
Apple was nearly bankrupt before Steve Jobs took it over, despite having thousands of good engineers working there. It was Jobs' leadership that built into the most valuable company on earth. Other people tried to lead Apple to success and failed miserably. Jobs tried and succeeded beyond what anyone thought was possible. If you think that doesn't matter, or he doesn't deserve massive credit for what he did, you're just confused.
Elon Musk put every penny of his PayPal fortune into SpaceX and Tesla, almost lost it all, all his investors abandoned him, the managers he hired failed him. He was forced to take over leadership of both companies to make them successful, which he did to incredible success.
People like to hate on these guys, to belittle their incredible accomplishments, out of envy, spite, or whatever. The haters fabricate the lie that these guys try to take credit for everything their companies do. Steve Jobs and Elon Musk have both praised their teams and collaborators many, many times. There's no way for them to avoid being the face of their companies, but that is in no way evidence of them trying to take all the credit.
But, the fact is that Jobs and Musk are uniquely deserving of credit for each of their companies' successes. They are the most responsible for their success. That doesn't mean they are solely responsible, a fact they were never confused about, have neither has ever said otherwise.
I'm not someone that thinks these guys are at all perfect people, but if you think they're just lucky, or just anyone could have done what they did, you're just extremely ignorant or lying to yourself to protect your own ego.
