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Shiller PER is at 38.5 [1], signaling overheating. Is it now a wise moment to do an all-in of your savings in an S&P index replica? It is dubious to me. I buy bogleheading in general, but some market timing thinking seems unavoidable to make the choice, specially if one is not young and comes from a zero investment prior.

[1] https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe




One of the core points of Bogleheads is to never time the market, and I actually fully live by that. This is one reason why I like what we do at Financial Choice, it removes another way for me to try and time the market: Before FC I would manually move extra funds in to an investment account on a sporadic fashion, but this was definitely prone to market timing either explicitly, or implicitly. If when I tried not to time the market, you often think of moving the extra money when you hear news about markets, so this was definitely not uninfluenced by that. With FC I take myself out of the loop and remove a source of trying to time the market.


You don't have to time the market, but when everyone is jumping off a cliff, you can say to yourself, "No thanks, I'd rather not jump off a cliff."




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