I don't think the iPhone was so much a bet as it was an escape from a dying market.
It's Apple's answer to the 2004 problem: "All phones will soon include free MP3 players. As this will eliminate the iPod cash cow, how do we compete with these new telecom competitors?
Funny thing is the killer feature of the iPhone is not that it has a phone. It's that it is a decent portable pocket internet tablet with edge/3g/wifi.
The fact it's called the i"Phone" is quite weird in a way I think, as I'm sure 90% of the usage on it is not phone related for most people. I had mine a couple of weeks before I used it for making a voice call...
So I see it more as a "How can we make a cool pocket macbook which has a killer browser" rather than how to save the iPod. After all, no other mobile browser can compete at the moment.
The beauty of Apple's approach is that rather than allowing phones to make playing music a secondary feature of phones, they have found a way to make voice calls a feature of portable tablet computers.
And while they were at it, they made playing music a secondary feature of portable tablet computers as well.
Very true, which is why the iPhone came as a surprise to absolutely no one with a clue.
This is evident by the fact that it's primary purpose is to serve as a nice multimedia player and internet browser, but nothing really productive.
I say this from experience. I used to use my blackberry (sometimes heavily) for work. I have an iphone now and can't fathom doing anything approaching work with it.
A lot of his "issues" would be issues for someone other than Steve Jobs, but Jobs has never in his life had a thought like "[I] may think Jonathan Ive can easily design the hardware, but [I]’ll have to invent a stunning UI and a truly innovative interaction paradigm". Or at least he would never consider that an issue.
His thoughts are more like "everyone designing interfaces for cellphones is a fucking asshole who can't get their UI straight, and I'm going to do it right."
Or so I imagine. Also a normal person might think "holy hell, I've got pancreatic cancer" while Steve just shrugs and starts eating lots of carrots.
Most vegetarians just jumped from one unhealthy diet to another. They're still eating as many preservatives and HFCS calories as anyone else, often more.
He also had quite a miserable experience with the ill fated SLVR. This had to have a considerable effect on the tactics used as he got into bed with AT&T. I would imagine having his creativity vetoed by the suits at Motorola had a silver lining.
It's Apple's answer to the 2004 problem: "All phones will soon include free MP3 players. As this will eliminate the iPod cash cow, how do we compete with these new telecom competitors?
"Answer: We'll add a phone to our MP3 player."