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As a huge fan, I'm very keen to hear the story of Toyota. How'd they lose their edge? Is decline inevitable once you peak? Is death-by-bureaucracy just what happens once you have entrenched stakeholders?

I now feel that Tesla is more Toyota than Toyota (continuous improvement). And becoming more Apple than Apple (monopsony). Plus a dash of Samsung (vertical integration).

[h/t Sandy Munro's teardowns, The Limiting Factor, both on youtube.]

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Tesla somehow champions Wright's Law better than any one else. (Coupled with financial acumen bordering on fraud.) They're maniacal about efficiency, ramping up production, above all else. They eschew model years and just roll out improvements as fast as possible.

I've never worked at place that both scaled up and focused cost reduction; it was always either-or. Even with the human cost, it's kind of exciting. (I worked in hypergrowth orgs in my 20s, at great personal cost. If I was 20 again, I'd be at Tesla (or SpaceX).)

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Tesla has also embraced Apple's monopsony strategy.

For iPod, Apple bought out all mini HDDs. For unibody laptops, Apple bought every milling machine. You couldn't compete even if you wanted to. Why did Apple pursue thinness, past the point of reason? Because they could and no one else could copy them.

In the same way, Tesla has embraced casting giant parts, by using the giant gigapresses. Acknowledging the obvious benefits like reduced part counts, improved quality... The deeper genius is any one who wants to copy them has to wait years to even buy their own gigapress.

I'm sure there are other steps in their production pipeline which competitors cannot easily copy. Because the tools, materials, skills simply are not available at any cost.

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Tesla will be mining their own lithium. That's insane! Who else in the world will own the entire lifecycle of their products?

And because Tesla is so vertically integrated, they'll be able to optimize globally. They'll have manufacturing steps done on site at the mines. Reducing shipping and handling costs.

And since Tesla makes their own solar panels, they'll provide their own power.

Such audacity!

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Plus some kind of crazy. Their misadventures with automation and robots should have killed the company. And yet they pivoted, compressing 40 years of manufacturing experience into 5 years.

How the hell did Tesla pull it off? They've had so many near death experiences. And at every critical juncture, they double down.

I feel like there's a lesson here, but I have no clue what it might be.




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