The bar for getting stuff done with programming is much lower than the bar for chemistry. While I do agree that not everyone can or will be a full time software engineer, I think that most people can incorporate programming into some aspect of their lives. Whether they want to is another thing but that shouldn't stop us from teaching at least the basics even if it means the most they'll do is write conditional excel sheets or figure out how to build their own iPhone shortcuts.
I suspect many people on HN have an unrealistic view of how most of the population operates.
People who can do any version of STEM with some minimal basic competence are unusual. They're not exceptionally unusual, but they're certainly not the population median.
Media numeracy is around Level 3 on this list. Numeracy in the US is lower than the OECD median and is somewhere between Levels 2 and 3.
I'd estimate you need Level 4 for programming to make any sense at all and maybe get you started with very simple programming tasks, Level 5 to be able to do basic code construction on a daily basis, and Level 6 to be a competent senior with some useful modelling skills.
Level 5 is maybe 20-25% of the population. Level 6 is probably less than 10%.
A very unrealistic view of the programming and mathematical abilities of the average person, even the average college educated, employed, under 40 person, is the main source of contention I find whenever this argument comes up in my social circles as well.
Those who think anyone can learn programming should pick an acquaintance ages 25-45 who has sufficient time, and attempt to teach them to program, and see the results. Or inquire about the actual success rates of coding bootcamps (which are already self selected groups and have filters themselves, far from the average population to begin with).
I've done the above with very mixed results, it's pretty clear that for a litany of reasons the average person is functionally incapable of being a useful programmer. I don't see the average citizen coding a lot in the next few decades, even casually.
