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It is impossible to know the likelihood as we have no other points of comparison.



It is actually possible :) (with some assumption on the distribution of the simulations) Complex sims are less likely, so the likelihood of increasing optional complexity of our sim should be slim, for instance interstellar travel. It's still unsolved how much unlikely, but if you have a large enough increase in complexity (say interstellar travel over billions of light years) you will hit sims which are unlikely enough.

(https://osf.io/ca8se, I'm the author)




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