On: On UFOs-as-Aliens Priors

[user-the-name]

> While we do not know the probability of abiogenesis, we can make an educated guess as to the range of probable likelihoods. ie, the probability of the probability.

No, we can't.

> Treating Earth as one data point is an unwise oversimplification.

It is one data point. We have no other. We can't know anything about any others.

Doing anything else is wishful thinking hidden in fancy methodology, just like this article. It is all nonsense.

We really, really do not know a single thing about the likeliness of life appearing. Not until we find a second data point.

[koheripbal → user-the-name]

You did not address anything in my comment. You just handwaved it as "nonsense".

If you don't have anything meaningful to contribute, it's better to just not comment at all.

[user-the-name → koheripbal]

There's nothing there that can be addressed. None of it makes sense.